Going out on a limb (re: Ray)

[droopdog7]

Knowing everything we know, I will go out on a limb and predict that Ray comes back to the Celts on a two-year deal.

It's simply looking more and more like the teams that want him can't pay him.  And while Ray is as honarable as they come, he isn't completely stupid.  Even he won't leave millions on the table to play elsewhere.  And, he won't play elsewhere unless they have a chance to contend.

I am thinking that the absolutely most a contending team would offer Ray is three years (starting at 3 mil per season).  So the absolute max would be about 10 mil.  But most likely he gets an offer of two years (so about 6-7 mil in total).

DA would almost have to try an retain Ray at that price.  More importantly, DA would likely have to offer much more to attract a free agent to come (both in terms of money and years).  And will the Celts even have that money if they resign KG and Green?  The Celts offer him 6 mil for two years and we trump even the biggest offer Ray is likely to get.  That's assuming DA wants to reload.  

Also, if I understand correctly, Ray would have earned a no trade clause (owing to his service time with the team) so that may make it more likely for him to return.    

[Fafnir]

I think you're right if the C's offer him that much money, will they though?

[Sketch5]

I think it depends on what KG does. From what we hear its good news. But if he decides that the team isn't going in the right direction, Kg calls it good and Ray moves on.

I think Ray and KG have talked to DA and said if you get so and so, we will come back for this price. The Smith rumors  would get this done.

If they fill the roster with 3 more rookies, I don't think they come back, that will be 6 spots for 3 one year guys and 3 spots for rookies. That leave 3 or 4 spots for Vets and I don't think you can contend like that.

[Chris]

I could actually see Ray resign on a 1 year deal.  I think the veto power on trades would be really enticing to him, and it will allow him to not uproot his family.

He would really have to swallow his pride to do that (and Ray is one of the more prideful players in the league), but its possible.

I doubt he signs a longer deal than that though, because it would be just asking for Danny to try to trade him again, and the thing Ray really does not want, is to be sent some place not of his choosing.

[More Banners]

I've posted this thought for a while in response to some of the crazier ideas about what it would take to keep Ray that were posted earlier in the season.

He clearly wants to play, and the market can pay $3M per.  That's pretty much the beginning and end of the story.  Perhaps a team offers a "severance year" by giving a 3-year deal for $10M.  Fine.  But he won't make more than that.

And we're the only team that could offer him a no-trade clause.  If he signs for 2 years, give it to him.  That's his incentive.  2 years, $6M total, no trade clause.  Done.

Next...Does KG still want to play, too?  What kind of contract will JGreen get?  (Why didn't they agree on a long-term contract last year?)  What about Bass?  Will Krystic come back to shore up the middle?  What about Wilcox and his health?  Have we seen the end of Quisy as a Celtic?  Will he be in the rotation next year?

What if we rebuild, but keep our established role players (and preserve cap space)?

Rondo/Moore
Bradley/Quisy
Pierce/Green
Bass/JJJ
Wilcox/Steimsma

Plus, of course, two rookies this year and probably Sasha too.

It still looks like a possible playoff team to me, and having players that know Doc and the system would be a huge help to develop the young players by having some guys who will be in the right place.

Looking forward to seeing what happens, but frankly, I'm not set on having Ray, and don't really think we need him.  KG is a different story. 

With KG, we can claim to be contenders.  Without him, we can't.  It's that simple.

[droopdog7]

I think you're right if the C's offer him that much money, will they though?

That' the thing.  We may lose Ray and have to replace him with an unproven rookie or a minimum salary guy.  If DA deems that not good, then he'll have to pay Ray.  Not an over top amount, but enough to convince to stay.

[mctyson]

Well he is not going to Miami for $3M, I can assure you of that.

Don't forget that these free agent negotiations are sometimes like a game of chicken, or who will blink first.  Ray and his agent might drum up a bunch of interest from teams only to ensure that Danny knows he has serious suitors (which I am sure he knows.)

I'd also note that most of the teams possibly associated with interest in Ray are all Eastern Conference teams, and are serious impediments to Banner 18 or are rivals (Miami, Chicago, New York.)  Where are the LA Clips or Denver rumors?

[colincb]

It's all on KG. If he doesn't come back, there's no reason not to let the youth frolic as we tank for lottery position. If KG comes back, then there's really not enough cap to sign another major free agent and still retain our mid-tier FAs.  In that case, there's no need to renounce anyone and then the Cs can pay Ray any number they want.  Length of contract would be a bigger issue, but a two year deal seems plausible.

People are focusing on MIA as a suitor, but I think he'll get better offers elsewhere (LAC for one, where he could start).  I think he'd rather stay here, but I don't see him taking a one year deal and I don't see any S+T that jumps out at me among the contenders.

[csfansince60s]

It's all on KG. If he doesn't come back, there's no reason not to let the youth frolic as we tank for lottery position. If KG comes back, then there's really not enough cap to sign another major free agent and still retain our mid-tier FAs.  In that case, there's no need to renounce anyone and then the Cs can pay Ray any number they want.  Length of contract would be a bigger issue, but a two year deal seems plausible.

+1, my sentiments exactly and this is the reality of the situation.

Ray's a loyal guy, but I don't think in a KG way. He felt disrespected (I'm not saying rightly so, but I truly believe he felt that way)by being trade bait both at last season's deadline and this year's and by being asked to come off the bench.

I think that we give Ray a 2 year, 9mil deal if KG comes back, but would be hesitant on the no trade clause unless that was a deal breaker and then I swallow it.

[LooseCannon]

I would offer a one year deal with a one year player option, with the option year partially guaranteed for only $1m. I think you have to give him money that will look attractive compared to a three-year, $15m MLE offer from a team where he would be a starter, so a $7m one-year deal with a player option for a partially guaranteed second year at $6m ($1m guaranteed) sounds right.

It seems like a no-brainer to overpay for Ray a it if KG makes it a condition for returning, especially considering there is a chance Bradley isn't ready at the start of the season.  Ray Allen + spending the MLE on a big is better than having using a combination of the MLE and minimum contracts to pay for a big and a backup wing.

[droopdog7]

It's all on KG. If he doesn't come back, there's no reason not to let the youth frolic as we tank for lottery position. If KG comes back, then there's really not enough cap to sign another major free agent and still retain our mid-tier FAs.  In that case, there's no need to renounce anyone and then the Cs can pay Ray any number they want.  Length of contract would be a bigger issue, but a two year deal seems plausible.

+1, my sentiments exactly and this is the reality of the situation.

Ray's a loyal guy, but I don't think in a KG way. He felt disrespected (I'm not saying rightly so, but I truly believe he felt that way)by being trade bait both at last season's deadline and this year's and by being asked to come off the bench.

I think that we give Ray a 2 year, 9mil deal if KG comes back, but would be hesitant on the no trade clause unless that was a deal breaker and then I swallow it.

Interesting finding regarding no trade clauses.  See below:

There are two additional circumstances in which a trade requires the player's consent:

When the player is playing under a one-year contract (excluding any option year) and will have Larry Bird or Early Bird rights at the end of the season. This includes first round draft picks following their fourth (option) season, who accept their team's qualifying offer for their fifth season. When the player consents to such a trade, his Larry Bird/Early Bird rights are not traded with him. The player becomes a Non-Bird free agent instead2.

So it would seem that the Celts would need Ray's permission to be traded if he signs a one year deal because his bird rights would be lost.  Of course, I could be completely misreading this passage.

[LooseCannon]

That rule is why I have proposed offering one year with a one year player option rather than a two year deal.  Nate Robinson had to give his consent to be traded to Boston because he was on a one-year deal.

[Celtics4ever]

I don't know if his pride would let him take a deal like that in all likelihood.

[j804]

Ray is as good as gone its no secret it's been coming from sources close to him and everywhere else he wants to go to Miami, even during around the trade deadline and after we heard it. Ah well it is what it is love Ray but if he went to Miami would probably get an ovation after returning to the Garden and booed on out after that especially if we offered more money.