Hollinger's player rater has interesting guys at the top

[Jeff]

the article is Insider so I'm not going to post it all here - but based on his formulas "as well as what we know about the players' red flags, defensive pluses and minuses and one or two subjective calls" - here's his big board through 25

I highlighted some eye popping ones

1. Anthony Davis
2. Thomas Robinson
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4. Dion Waiters
5. Andre Drummond


6. Quincy Miller
7. Jared Sullinger
8. Terrence Jones
9. John Henson
10. Royce White


11. Bradley Beal
12. Harrison Barnes
13. Tony Wroten
14. Kendall Marshall
15. Marquis Teague


16. Draymond Green
17. Jeremy Lamb
18. Damian Lillard
19. Austin Rivers
20. Doron Lamb


21. Furkan Aldemir
22. Will Barton
23. Tyler Zeller
24. Evan Fournier
25. Tyshawn Taylor

[jgod213]

Waiters at 4? I kinda like that.  I think he's being a bit overlooked because of his 6-thman status at Cuse.

Draymond Green at 16? I mean i know the guy is seasoned but come on.  We've had 4 years to evaluate the kid.  What is he picking up on that team scouts don't see?

Tyler Zeller ranking is perplexing.  You just don't see centers in this day and age that can move like that and have such a high bbiq.  I think he's a sure-fire impressive rookie from day 1.

Taylor at 25 seems high, but i think he caught a lot of flack for some struggles in the nat championship finals.  He's better than what he showcased, he's been suffering because of that performance.

[clover]

Meyers Leonard, who is projected in the 10-12 range, doesn't show up on his list at all.

[mctyson]

Hollinger, as we know, uses stats to develop his models.  Someone like Myers Leonard is not going to show up because he is a project pick with value based on size and potential alone, not production.  Draymond Green is going to show up because he was an All-American who put up big numbers in college.

That's why Sullinger is a top 10 guy here.  I think most people would agree that he was a top 10 producer in college.  But the NBA talent evaluators have never really cared strictly about production.

[arambone]

Draftexpress has some very interesting advanced statistics out as well:
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/By-the-Numbers-The-2012-Big-Man-Crop-3994/

From there you can click on each position and compare prospects

Draftexpress is also publishing analysis of these advanced stats today:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Situational-Statistics-the-2012-Big-Men-Crop-3992

[RLewis35]

Hollinger is the same guy whose ratings constantly severely underrate Rajon Rondo.  I'm not a fan of his stats.

[Yogi]

Hollinger, as we know, uses stats to develop his models.  Someone like Myers Leonard is not going to show up because he is a project pick with value based on size and potential alone, not production.  Draymond Green is going to show up because he was an All-American who put up big numbers in college.

That's why Sullinger is a top 10 guy here.  I think most people would agree that he was a top 10 producer in college.  But the NBA talent evaluators have never really cared strictly about production.

Well according to the OP, Hollinger has included Sullinger's red flags and lack of athleticism.  He must not like something about Myers Leonard because he's ranked Drummond so high and I doubt that Drummond's college production can be considered that much better than Leonard's.  He must include athleticism and potential in this list.  But Hollinger is not very insightful.  His calculations though are mildly useful sometimes.

[csfansince60s]

I think that he is right on about Beal.

Beal is way overvalued for an undersized 2.

[arambone]

I doubt that Drummond's college production can be considered that much better than Leonard's.

-Andre Drummond, on the other hand, ranks fairly poorly in this analysis, not really standing out in any major areas. His overall efficiency (.925) is 6th worst among the 26 big men, as he rarely gets to the free throw line (2nd worst), and he is the worst back to the basket scorer (.578 PPP) in this group by a very wide margin.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1ypgf7NvQ
http://www.draftexpress.com

-Meyers Leonard ranked as the best post-scorer in this group, at an excellent 1.048 PPP on more than five possessions per game. Leonard crashes the offensive glass least frequently of any player in this group, and doesn't stand out in any other area besides his strong finishing ability (1.417 PPP, 7th best)

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1ypgp2qqh
http://www.draftexpress.com

[The Walker Wiggle]

But Hollinger is not very insightful. His calculations though are mildly useful sometimes.

He's not on my must-read list, but he also doesn't get enough credit around here. Worth noting that he came out ahead of the ESPN field in 2011-12 preseason predictions, beating the Vegas odds-makers in the process.

John Hollinger    $2.44
Chad Ford    $2.39
D. McMenamin    $2.23
Brian Windhorst $1.86
Las Vegas    $1.82
David Thorpe    $1.51
Chris Broussard $1.49
Larry Coon    $1.21
Marc Stein    $1.12
Scoop Jackson    $1.12
Jon Barry    $0.99

[Yogi]

But Hollinger is not very insightful. His calculations though are mildly useful sometimes.

He's not on my must-read list, but he also doesn't get enough credit around here. Worth noting that he came out ahead of the ESPN field in 2011-12 preseason predictions, beating the Vegas odds-makers in the process.

John Hollinger    $2.44
Chad Ford    $2.39
D. McMenamin    $2.23
Brian Windhorst $1.86
Las Vegas    $1.82
David Thorpe    $1.51
Chris Broussard $1.49
Larry Coon    $1.21
Marc Stein    $1.12
Scoop Jackson    $1.12
Jon Barry    $0.99

Yeah I saw that.  Player evaluations are more difficult than predictions like who will win a division etc.  Especially basing long term projections based on very little empirical data.  He has much more data and better models in predicting how teams will do.  My main criticism of his is his lack of insight, but he probably doesn't believe in something like that.  I am more idealistic.  I value things like character, intelligence, motivation, leadership, attitude etc. more than he does.  In cases like Rondo, KG, MKG etc. he can't see their true values based on numbers.  At the end of the day no one can really predict the future.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Well, let's see how he did predicting the out of the gate success of the 2011 rookie class. Although, safe to say at least of few of these young players should make marked improvements with the benefit of an NBA off-season, summer league, training camp, etc.

1. Kyrie Irving
2. Derrick Williams
3. Tristan Thompson
5. Kawhi Leonard
6. Enes Kanter
7. Kemba Walker
8. Tobias Harris
9. Alec Burks
10. Jordan Hamilton
11. Bismack Biyombo
12. Brandon Knight
13. Tyler Honeycutt
14. Jon Leuer
18. Klay Thompson
19. Norris Cole
20. Iman Shumpert
22. Jimmer Fredette
24. Greg Smith
25. Marcus Morris
26. JaJuan Johnson
27. Markieff Morris
29. Kenneth Faried
57. Isaiah Thomas

A solid effort. He, like most of the league front offices, badly underestimated Faried, a favorite of many on the advanced metrics beat. But he successfully tagged Leonard, Cole and Leur as underrated prospects. Honeycutt gets ranked 13th only because Hollinger over-corrected out of frustration after missing on two previous UCLA players, Westbrook and Holiday. Klay Thompson is ranked too low.

As for Isaiah Thomas, hard to blame Hollinger for failing to tout the best ever 60th pick, more appropriate just to doff our caps to the shrewd scouting of Geoff Petrie.

[Yogi]

Well, let's see how he did predicting the out of the gate success of the 2011 rookie class. Although, safe to say at least of few of these young players should make marked improvements with the benefit of an NBA off-season, summer league, training camp, etc.

1. Kyrie Irving
2. Derrick Williams
3. Tristan Thompson
5. Kawhi Leonard
6. Enes Kanter
7. Kemba Walker
8. Tobias Harris
9. Alec Burks
10. Jordan Hamilton
11. Bismack Biyombo
12. Brandon Knight
13. Tyler Honeycutt
14. Jon Leuer
18. Klay Thompson
19. Norris Cole
20. Iman Shumpert
22. Jimmer Fredette
24. Greg Smith
25. Marcus Morris
26. JaJuan Johnson
27. Markieff Morris
29. Kenneth Faried
57. Isaiah Thomas

A solid effort. He, like most of the league front offices, badly underestimated Faried, a favorite of many on the advanced metrics beat. But he successfully tagged Leonard, Cole and Leur as underrated prospects. Honeycutt gets ranked 13th only because Hollinger over-corrected out of frustration after missing on two previous UCLA players, Westbrook and Holiday. Klay Thompson is ranked too low.

As for Isaiah Thomas, hard to blame Hollinger for failing to tout the best ever 60th pick, more appropriate just to doff our caps to the shrewd scouting of Geoff Petrie.

As of now, it looks pretty bad.  But I'd give him some time as it might take longer for the big guys like Tristan Thompson, D Will and Biyombo to develop. As of now it seems to me he was pretty wrong about every one except Kyrie (which was a safe bet although I underestimated Kyrie a lot) and Kawahi (hard to go wrong with someone the Spurs trade George Hill for)  I was shocked Isiah Thomas fell as much as he did considering how productive he was in college and how he dominated the combine.  When he started tearing up the summer leagues during the lockout it was even more obvious the Kings had a steal. 

[LooseCannon]

Thomas is listed at 5'9".  Of course, there is a good chance he will fall a lot.  Look at the people who automatically hate 6'8" power forwards.  If you're a fan of the Moneyball approach, height tends to be overvalued, so a lot of the best values are going to come from undersized players.