9-8-0 Big Three Celtics 2012-13

[ummidkme]

To start off I would just like to state that I would love to have Roy Hibbert, Steve Nash, Eric Gordon, JaVale McGee, J.J. Hickson, or Goran Dragic with the Celtics, however considering our cap restrictions I do not see this as being possible. Gordon is the most likely target, but I do not think he is worth a maximum contract given the strong free agent class next year. So unless Danny does a blockbuster move during the offseason or does a trade I am being realistic and practical with what I see the future of Celtics Basketball transitioning into. Therefore, even given the many reports of the C’s hoping to trade up in the draft I will again be conservative seeing a possible future with picks #21, #22, and #51. I will not be predicting my ideal lineup therefore, nor the one I most see happening, but rather one that is the best possible. Hell if I were making a fantasy team Dwight Howard and Josh Smith would both be Celtics next year, and we would move up in the draft to get Meyers Leonard, Dion Waiters, or Arnett Moultrie. Hell I’d even want Kim English, John Jenkins, or Jae Crowder in the second round. As of now I see the Celtics future revolving around Rondo 9, Green 8, and Bradley 0 with the veteran leadership of KG and Pierce and some old and new additions.

Boston Celtics 2012-13 Roster
Paul Pierce SF (Starter)
Rajon Rondo PG (Starter)
Avery Bradley SG (Starter)
Kevin Garnett C/PF (Starter)
Ersan Ilyasova PF (Starter)
Jeff Green SF (1st bench)
Greg Stiemsma C (Bench)
Keyon Dooling (Bench)
JaJuan Johnson PF/SF (Bench)
E’Twaun Moore PG (Bench)
Mickael Pietrus (Bench) or Steve Novak (Bench) or Gerald Green (Bench)
Chris Wilcox (Bench) or Ian Mahinmi (Bench)
#21: Royce White (Bench)
#22: Moe Harkless/ Jeffery Taylor (Bench)
#51: Scott Machado / Kris Joseph / Leon Radosevic / William Buford (Bench)

Players Gone: Ray Allen, Brandon Bass, Marquis Daniels, Hollins, Williams, Sasha,

Depth Chart
Rajon Rondo / Keyon Dooling / E’Twaun Moore / Rookie # 3
Avery Bradley / Mikael Pietrus or Gerald Green or Steve Novak
Paul Pierce / Jeff Green / Rookie #2 and/or 3
Ersan Ilyasova / JaJaun Johnson / Royce White
Kevin Garnett / Greg Stiemsma / Ian Mahinmi or Chris Wilcox

The salary cap is especially important next year, because if the Celtics do sign KG and JG they will not have as much money available as people think. Reading Celtics salary cap and free agency FAQ By Paul Flannery was very helpful in creating a viable roster. The link is: http://greenstreet.weei.com/sports/boston/basketball/celtics/2012/06/11/celtics-salary-cap-and-free-agency-faq/


Roster by Cap Space
Paul Pierce: $16.79 million
Rajon Rondo: $11 million
Avery Bradley: $1.63 million
JaJuan Johnson: 1.089 million
E’Twaun Moore: $762,000 (team option)
Greg Stiemsma: $1.05 million qualifying offer (one year-could do more)
Reasonable Offers
Kevin Garnett: $8-12 million one-year deal
Jeff Green, Boston Celtics – $6-8 one-year deal
Salaries from Previous Year
Keyon Dooling, Boston Celtics – $2.2 million Unrestricted one-year deal
Ersan Ilyasova, Milwaukee Bucks – $2.5 million – Unrestricted (from reports he wants 3 years at $21 million but 8-10 million for one year sounds fair)
[Steve Novak, New York Knicks – $1.0 million – Unrestricted one-year deal Or
Gerald Green, Brooklyn Nets – $0.4 million – Unrestricted one-year deal Or
Mickael Pietrus, Boston Celtics – $1.2 million – Unrestricted one-year deal]
[Ian Mahinmi, Dallas Mavericks – $0.9 million – Unrestricted one-year deal Or
Chris Wilcox, Boston Celtics  – $3 million – Unrestricted one-year deal]
#21: Royce White $1.05 million
#22: Rookie $1.04 million
#51: Rookie $550,000
Total: $62 million at lowest $ 71 million at highest

This is of course going for the most part after the previous year’s player salary. I would expect Dooling, Wilcox and perhaps Pietrus to take term friendly deals. KG might even be accommodating and sign for lower. Allen and Bass however want too much for their specific skillsets especially with limited upside. I wouldn't mind them back for the right amount of money, but I am not expecting it. Bench scoring would again be an issue for the Celtics roster but I expect JG, rookies and second-year players to make up for Ray’s absence. There is also some concern with only having two shooting guards given that if they retain Air France, both their SGs would have been injured the previous year. So if one wants more security in that area Danny could always sign Green or Novak as a new and healthy alternative although he sacrifices defense. Please tell me what you think. I'd like to know more on Brandon Rush to see if he'd be a better compliment to the team.

[mctyson]

That's a reasonable prediction of what the roster will be like next year.

Not sure Danny/Doc would by high on Ilyasova.  I like him a lot but not sure he fits in our scheme.  Plus that firmly puts KG as the starting 5 again and we know he hates that.  If we had another banger at the 4 KG can pretend he is our PF.

I can't see us bringing back Dooling for $2M, he'll have to take the vet minimum or he's gone.

The Knicks are not letting Steve Novak go. 

I think Pietrus may resign with us for the vet min. 

Not sure about Wilcox but I offer him the vet min too...his injury history doesn't warrant a higher offer.

[greenhead85]

Sean Williams I think is signed until next season.

Rookies who we might pick and sign and that would probably break into Doc's rotation are Melo, Jeff Taylor, Nicholson and/or Wroten. Btw, I like Terrance Henry or Miles Plumlee for the 51st pick.

[clover]

Phew!  Saw that headline and thought someone wanted Toine to make another return.

[clover]

Sean Williams I think is signed until next season.

Rookies who we might pick and sign and that would probably break into Doc's rotation are Melo, Jeff Taylor, Nicholson and/or Wroten. Btw, I like Terrance Henry or Miles Plumlee for the 51st pick.

I think that's only if the C's pick up Williams's option this summer.

[badax33]

I've read through your post, but there's a problem   .  When I add up the salaries, including our 2 1st rounds picks, prior to Ilyasova (and before any vet mins), I come up with 55.6M. The Cap next year is around 58M.  Therefore you can't sign Ilyasova for 7+M because that puts you over the cap.  Current player (even FAs) count against your cap number until signed or renounced.  So until you sign KG he counts 21M and Ray counts 10M.  Once you renounce a FA you lose their Bird Right (forever I believe). So basically, Danny has to deal with the current squad signing or renouncing players to determine if he has any cap space.   Example: if he sign KG to an 8M deal then that figure is used which basically frees up 13M.  But you do that with the entire team to create your base cap number.

Also, Ilyasova is a free agent and he's not signing for 1 year; your estimate that he'll get 7-8M/3yrs is probably accurate and might even get a little more.  To make it work you'd probably have to renounced Ray, Dooling and Wilcox.  That would put you at 50.4 plus 2 cap hold at .4 for a total of 51.2M, which means that you could give Ilyasova around a 7M deal.

[chambers]

Nice job on the post.
I agree with one of the above posters that Ersan might not be on Danny's radar as much as some of us would like- I tend to think he'll be looking to fill the spot eventually with a younger high flyer over the long term (most likely from this draft or if JJJ has a breakout season). So while we have KG, perhaps a more seasoned/less demanding vet like Kris Humphries on 2 years at 12-14 million perhaps?

I too think Ray and Bass will be overpaid and go elsewhere which I'm fine with.
I think it's essential we keep Pietrus to go with Green to guard Miami's super combo in the playoffs. Pietrus still have knee issues so he'll be cheap.

I like the above roster and would just like someone like Bass who is more of an aggressive rebounder and banger that can still hit jump shots at a similar clip.

I think we really are going to gamble and go with some of the young kids this year as key role players which excites me because we really have nothing to lose once we've signed KG to his deal (particularly if it's a large 1/2 year deal).
I'd like to see JJJ and Moore in the mix as back ups, getting JJJ out there with Rondo, Green, Avery and our new starting PF would be very refreshing for me as a fan.


Nice post again, TP.

[pearljammer10]

Thats is a fair and very realistic possibility of what we could run with next year. However, i dont think that lineup brings us back to the Eastern Conference finals. I would replace Bass with Ilyosova and I would like to use Jeff Green as trade bait in a sign and trade if possible.

[ummidkme]

Thanks for the quick replies. I'll just answer with some quick notes first off.

mctyson: I'm aware of KG's disgust of playing Center but in all honesty that might be the one position where he plays well at now. Who know what really triggered his resurgence. But unless we get a dominant big man, which is highly unlikely, KG is best at C. Also, the league is still deciding on whether or not to give Lin and Novak Early Bird Rights which they say is unlikely. Therefore, Knicks will most likely retain Lin and not have enough cap for Novak. I'm working on limited information at the moment.

greenhead85: I will definitely research those two #51 picks and get back to you.

chambers: I haven't seen a lot of Ersan either. I'm not sold on him. Money Money Money was on my mind and the possibilities of using him as a future trade asset. So we could sign him for a longer contract for less money and I would be fine. I looked at other possibilities, but they seemed even less likely. Humphries is a bad locker room guy, J.J. Hickson who I love is going to want to much money for play similar to Bass, and Gerald Wallace brings great defensive with offensive inconsistency. Ersan from what I saw against the Celtics did exactly what we needed. Any PF or C we go after this off-season is going to be over payed. I'm just looking for someone that won't really cripple our cap.

badax33: I was looking into cap holds all night and they still irk me. They can lower their cap hold by signing a player, renouncing a player or the player himself decides to sign with another team. So Bass, Ray, Garnett, Green, Dooling, heck even players like Kristic and Marbury contribute to our cap hold. So everything depends on KG this off-season, since I am assuming we let Bass and Ray walk eliminating their cap hold. KG then is the first domino to do anything. To make our salary work KG has to sign a friendly deal and then for me at least we could sign Ilyasova. Wilcox I don't mind renouncing although with heart issues I think teams should give the player another chance, but if not Mahinmi is a cheap alternative. And as for Dooling I'd rather have him be a coach for Rondo. His presence on the court does nothing for me. Do you have any alternatives to what you see the roster for next year working out to?

[ummidkme]

Thats is a fair and very realistic possibility of what we could run with next year. However, i dont think that lineup brings us back to the Eastern Conference finals. I would replace Bass with Ilyosova and I would like to use Jeff Green as trade bait in a sign and trade if possible.

Sadly, a sign-and-trade is highly unrealistic for JG or Bass. There is no logical reason for them to do a sign-and-trade when they could get more money on the open market to a team they handpick. I am also one who thinks JG can thrive with the Celtics during this season.

[ummidkme]

Alternate Rosters

PPG totals are from combining each player’s PPG totals from last year, so there would be some differences in a real roster. I expect the he same with RPG. I expect point decline in some players and increases in other players, noting that I doubt the Cs ever get above a 100 points for a year. Please Read to the Bottom. So out of the four rosters, which do people like better? And are either of these a championship team?

Depth Chart 1
Rajon Rondo / Keyon Dooling / E’Twaun Moore
Avery Bradley / Mikael Pietrus or Gerald Green or Steve Novak/ Buford
Paul Pierce / Jeff Green / Royce White / Rookie #22 MH or JT
Ersan Ilyasova / Chris Wilcox / JaJaun Johnson
Kevin Garnett / Greg Stiemsma / Rookie #22 Melo

Total: $62 million at lowest $ 71 million at highest
Depending on whether Danny drafts Melo the Cs could be 3 deep at each position. But looking at the roster there were some tweaks near the same price range.
PPG: 108 to 114 depending on which backup SG, and without Rookie contribution
RPG: 48 to 49.5 depending on which backup SG, and without Rookie contribution

Depth Chart 2
Rajon Rondo / E’Twaun Moore
Avery Bradley / Pietrus or Gerald Green or Steve Novak / #51 Buford
Paul Pierce / Jeff Green / Royce White / Rookie #22 MH or JT or
Ersan Ilyasova / JaJaun Johnson / Reggie Evans (Joey Dorsey alternative)
Kevin Garnett / Chris Wilcox / Greg Stiemsma / Rookie #22 Melo

Total: $62 million at lowest $ 71 million at highest
Added benefit of taking Dooling out of the mix for Reggie Evans or JD rebounding at reasonable salaries, but would you take Dooling out of the lineup for Dorsey if Evans is not possible?
PPG: 106 to 113 depending on which backup SG and PF, without Rookie contribution
RPG: 51 to 52.5 depending on which backup SG and PF, without Rookie contribution

Depth Chart 3
Rajon Rondo / E’Twaun Moore
Avery Bradley / Pietrus or Gerald Green or Steve Novak
Paul Pierce / Jeff Green / Royce White / Rookie #22 MH or JT or
Ersan Ilyasova / JaJaun Johnson / Reggie Evans (Joey Dorsey alternative)
Kevin Garnett / Chris Wilcox / Greg Stiemsma / #51 Aldemir / Rookie #22 Melo

Total: $62 million at lowest $ 71 million at highest
Here we take Aldemir for his rebounding potentiality although he would be buried under the Depth Chart. His rebounding rate is ridiculous though. Also, if we do pick Melo with the #22 pick he would reasonably be ahead of Aldemir. So I see a fourth possibility.
PPG: 106 to 113 depending on which backup SG and PF, without Rookie contribution
RPG: 51 to 52.5 depending on which backup SG and PF, without Rookie contribution

Depth Chart 4
Rajon Rondo / E’Twaun Moore / Keyon Dooling
Avery Bradley / Pietrus and/or Gerald Green and/or Steve Novak
Paul Pierce / Jeff Green / Royce White / Rookie #22 MH or JT or
Ersan Ilyasova / JaJaun Johnson / Reggie Evans (Joey Dorsey alternative)
Kevin Garnett / Chris Wilcox / Greg Stiemsma / Rookie #22 Melo

Total: $62 million at lowest $ 71 million at highest
Alternative version has C’s taking Furkan Aldemir C at #51 so they can have one less rookie on the payroll leaving him to develop in Europe for Dooling or hell maybe we can have a combination of MP and G.Green / Novak.
PPG: 106 to 113 depending on which backup SG and PF, without Rookie contribution
RPG: 51 to 52.5 depending on which backup SG and PF, without Rookie contribution
Dooling: add 4 points and 1 rebound or we have a combination of SGs
PPG: 99 without any backup SG
RPG: 49 without any backup SG; insert whichever combination
Combo 1: MP & Novak add 16 points 5 rebounds
Combo 2:MP & Green add 20 points 6.5 rebounds
Combo 3: Novak & Green add 22 points 5.5 rebounds
So highest possible PPG 121 and highest possible RPG 55.5

I wanted to just give everyone a basic idea of what the possible teams would look like. Adding up player totals however never work, any fan of the Cs will tell you that. Cs are team ball. The highest PPG for last year was Denver’s 104.1 and the highest RPG was Chicago’s 46.7, so this teams stats are all fantasy. It all depends on minutes really and possible player development. Even so this is still a picture worth seeing. The biggest question is still are any one of these rosters possible championship contending teams?