Why does everyone keep saying we won't be a contender next year?

[schabette]

I don't understand it:

Everyone thinks that once the BIG 3 is going to break up we won't have a shot at a title anymore. Long rebuilding process blahblahblah...

For me, it looks like we could have a pretty good team, maybe even better than this year!

If KG plays on, he should stay with us. On reduced terms, playing starting Center for 20-25 minutes like Shaq did last year. He is probably the best Center left in the Playoffs and I don't believe his abilities are going to decline that much during the summer.

Pierce definetly has a lot left inside him, as he got voted for Player of the Week/Month again this season. He can still perform at a high level, everyone knows that. Like KG, he also won't have to play too many minutes if Jeff Green resigns and is healthy, allthough I'm really not sure how well he actually can perform next season, due to his long injury break.

As much as I love Ray, even if he would get healthy again and plays on, i wouldn't resign him, except for much more reduced salary and limited bench role and that's probably not going to happen. He can still shoot lights out when he's healthy, but it's just too much of a risk to count on him next season. I expect Bradley to make another big step forward in the offseason cause he's a hard worker and will be a legit starting SG next season.

So if Ray comes off the books and KG sings a one year deal on reduced terms, we would have a decent amount of money to spend.

We would definitely need another starting caliber big man at the 4 and 5. I would resingn Green, Stiemsma, Bass and Pietrus. Get another backup PG guard and you have your bench. Add the young guys moore, jjj and the rookies and you have the following lineup:

Rondo/?/Bradley/Moore
Bradley/Pietrus/Moore
Pierce/Green/Pietrus
?/Bass/JJJ
KG/Stiemsma/?

+Rookies

Looks fine so far to me. Let's see what the draft brings to us. Hopefully another big man and some offensive talent.

I thinks this team alone could make it to the Playoffs. It is basically the team that brought us into the CFs this year.  I'm not an expert in Cap issues, but Ray's money and some more of KG's has to be enough to add another 1-2 starting caliber front court players.

Can someone tell me why we shouldn't be in the mix of contenders next year?

[BballTim]

  Many people here have been saying we won't be contenders next year since 2009. You get used to it after a while.

[mctyson]

I think most people who say we won't be contenders next year do not consider us serious contenders this year, or did not think we were contenders last year.

They see Lebron and Wade, Rose and the Bulls, and see two teams that are "better" than the Celtics are in their current form, even if we had a 70% win pct. after the all star break.

It really comes down to one's interpretation of the word "contender."  In the NBA, I believe you are a contender if you win 50+ games in the regular season.  That tells me you have the ability to beat the other teams with 50+ wins, making you a threat in the playoffs.  Does that guarantee a trip to the Finals?  Heck no.  But it makes you a "contender" for that position.

Some other people might think you are only a contender if you are high 50's or 60+ wins, meaning you are in the top 3 of all NBA teams, and are more than likely going to at least be in the conference finals.  Others might require something different, like a previous trip to the Finals or even a Championship.  Some people want that near guarantee that the team will be great.  Different strokes for different folks.

If KG comes back, there is no doubt in my mind that this team will be just as good as it was this year.  A full year of Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, and KG, with the right pieces (Jeff Green healthy), can put us back into the ECF again.

And let's not forget that we have the best PG in the league....   

[Smokeeye123]

Every playoff team is one opposing teams ankle break away from being contenders.

[schabette]

I'm not only talking about the people at this site, but especially about the media etc.
I know this year is probably the last shot for the BIG 3 playing together, but that doesn't mean the Boston Celtics will now head back to the pre-Big 3 status.

Good Example: Aschburners article on nba.com about KG:

"Boston might need him next season, but that still won't slow Danny Ainge's plans to start the overhaul. Garnett is devoted to coach Doc Rivers, and Paul Pierce will be back, but Allen almost certainly won't be. The dynamic of the team will change with its personnel and Garnett would have to accept the reality that his days of playing for another ring would be over."

I just don't see the it that way. I would even go further and say we could even be a LOT better next year with some new guys instead of Ray, JO etc.

[Roy H.]

It's going to depend on what direction Danny takes.

In an ideal world, everyone takes one year deals, and we bring the gang back together for another run.

However, what if Brandon Bass, Jeff Green, KG, etc., don't want one year deals?  Will Danny commit long-term to mediocre or aging players?  Or will he instead attempt to preserve his cap flexibility, even if it hurts in the short term?

Many of those who don't think the team will be a contender are skeptical that Danny is going to spend the cap space necessary to keep Green, Bass, etc. around.

[Celtics4ever]

KG at C, Rondo at PG, PP back at SF.   I think we setting up good if this happens and we spend RA's money wisely and add some decent picks.  Go with some peeps who can run with Rondo.

[rondohondo]

Rose will be out for a good chunk of the season. Other than Miami and Chi, the c's are the only other contender in the east

-Resign KG for 3 yrs 24 mil
-Hope Bass picks up his option( or draft a PF if he opts out)
-Resign Ray for 3 mil/1 year deal if he wants to continue playing)
Resign Jeff Green to a 2 yr 10 mil deal
Try to sign a vet free agent big man for 1 year at decent money (Humpheries, Camby, Kaman )

PG: Rondo         / Vet min
SG: Bradley       / Ray
SF: PP           / Green
PF: Humpheries   / Bass or draft pick/Green
 C: KG           / Draft pick / Steamer

Thats a lot more scoring and athleticism off the bench while adding a stud rebounding big man to the starting lineup. The is the best case scenario IMO, but Bass will likely opt out leaving us to draft a PF . If Bass opts out that would be 4 mil more in Salary cap so I would probably go after Illyasova instead of Humpheries .

[GreenFaith1819]

Well, considering the rest of the NBA landscape -

CHI will be VERY challenged to have that "Contender" tag. Last reports on D Rose says his recovery will take 8-12 months. I am no doctor by any stretch, but wouldn't that place his return to CHI around perhaps Apr-May next year?

And isn't that best case scenario for Rose? And is that enough time for him to get his game legs under him?

That being said, can we or the media say that CHI will contend next year?

I'm sure MIA will be around - provided that they don't decide to ship Bosh out of town. Lebron/Wade seem to be doing well without him.

To be honest, I think they've already traded Bosh for some Refs.............

But anyway it depends a lot on what direction Danny wants to go, as I believe Roy stated. I certainly think we could be contenders next year, but I have Zero GM experience, and I'm not spending BOS's money.

[xmuscularghandix]

I think the 2013 Celtics and all teams following should try to follow the mold set forth by The Bad Boy Pistons of the late 80's to early 90's. I love the fact that Avery Bradley is almost the opposite type of SG as Ray Allen, he back cuts and is always moving towards the rim looking for lay-ups. Rondo has MORE than proven than once he has to he will be capable of being one of the team's primary scoring options.

Resign KG at Center for next year (if he's interested), he can continue to give Boston a stretch 5 who still battles defensivey. Of course KG actually battles defensively as opposed to just pummeling anyone in the lane... but I think both methods are effective.

Pierce will be back to provide that Adrian Dantley role as the elder statesmen, go to isolation scorer, and overall captain of the ship.

Avery Bradley, as I've been saying since the draft, is perfect to play that young Joe Dumars role. He shuts down the other team's best scoring guard, has a nice mid-range jumper, and an improving outside jumper that he can catch & shoot off teammate's penetration. AB has shown this year this he is an absolute beast defensively who isn't afraid of anyone. At the end of the season he also showed the ability to score the ball when Doc decided to rest almost all the rest of the key players.

Then there's Rondo... It seems that Rajon has the ability to hit open shots when he's forced to. He also has that superstar ability to become hot and just start drilling everything (ala James, Wade). If Rondo keeps shooting the open jumpers, defenders will have to come out and contest them. If Rondo actually had defending guards fighting of picks he would literally be impossible to keep out of the paint and would have the potential to be not only the best PG in the game but maybe even among the league's top 5-10 players PERIOD. That sound like Isiah Thomas from '83-'87.

[FreeGreen]

I totally agree.

With Rose out -- Miami is the clear favorite in the East and we match up with them terrifically with AB back in the lineup!

If KG comes back, we're the 2nd best team in the East at the start of next season.

(Look at the C's offensive efficiency with Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, KG, and anyone.)

I honestly hope Ray will come back for Dooling-esque money.

Rondo 
Bradley / Ray / Moore?
Pierce / Green? / Pietrus? / Nicholson?
Bass? / JJJ? /
KG / Steimsa / Hollins?

Lots of questions, but Danny will have the money to find answers.  (I would love if we could somehow swing Josh Smith ... he's be a great fit at the 4 with this group.)

[Moranis]

I think Boston needs to add a major talent this summer to be a real contender.  Someone young and athletic.  Josh Smith seems like the perfect player and a guy that might be available.  If Boston can add someone like him, then I think they could easily be right in the mix.  Not sure what it would take to land Smith, but that would be my #1 goal if I'm Ainge. 

Not sure if this would work for Atlanta, but I'd do it.

Smith, Williams

for

Green 1 yr 8 million, Bass 3 yrs 6 mill start,  Johnson (or one of the two rookies Boston selects), 2013 1st (top 20 protected), 2015 1st (lottery protected)

That would give Boston a pretty nice rotation with Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, Smith, and KG starting and Williams, Allen, Stiemer, Rookie, Pietris, or F.A. PG (or Dooling) off the bench.  Not sure if that team can beat Miami regularly, but would certainly have a decent shot at it if the team was healthy.

[Evantime34]

I think if anything we will be better next year. We lost our sixth man before the season started (Green). We lost our opening day starting center (JO). We lost our first big off the bench at the time (Wilcox). In the playoffs we lost our starting 2 (Bradley). Due to a shortened season we are playing with a hobbled Pierce and Ray.

I'm not saying next year will be injury free, but with a normal regular  season and hopefully some luck our team will make it to the playoffs more intact than it is now.

The two things that effect if a team improves or gets worse are 1. Who left vs who has been brought in. 2. Young player improvement vs Old player decline. I expect both these things to be positive for the Celtics.

1. Here are my expectations for Roster turnover:
Leaving: Dooling, Hollins, Pietrus, Pavlovic, Williams, Daniels
Joining: 1st round pick, 1st round pick, Jeff Green, Wilcox, One free agent at about $4-8 MM (depending on cost of other contracts), vet min free agent maybe one from group above

Those coming in at least on paper are much better than the role players leaving. This is assuming we bring KG and Bass back. This is also assuming we keep Ray or replace him with a bench player capable of scoring.

2. Players getting better: Rondo, Bradley, Moore, JJJ, Stiemsma
Players getting worse: Pierce, Garnett, Ray.

Again I think this is another positive. Garnett looked rejuvinated playing the 5 plus with less injuries I expect Doc to further cut his minutes, which could help him stay at the same level. Pierce's game doesn't rely on athletecism so his decline shouldn't be awful. Ray has been playing hurt most of the year and should be fully healthy and rested scoring off the bench. Rondo has improved his shot this year and this improvement should continue. Bradley showed us a glimpse of what he can be and with his youth you have to believe he improves. Moore showed on a limited basis that he can score in the league, I expect him to get more backup 1 minutes next year. JJJ is by all accounts a hard working kid, next year he will come in bigger and stronger with a better grasp of the system and doc more willing to give him a chance.

Overall I think it isn't a stretch to say the Celtics will be even better next year.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

I think if anything we will be better next year. We lost our sixth man before the season started (Green). We lost our opening day starting center (JO). We lost our first big off the bench at the time (Wilcox). In the playoffs we lost our starting 2 (Bradley). Due to a shortened season we are playing with a hobbled Pierce and Ray.

I'm not saying next year will be injury free, but with a normal regular  season and hopefully some luck our team will make it to the playoffs more intact than it is now.

The two things that effect if a team improves or gets worse are 1. Who left vs who has been brought in. 2. Young player improvement vs Old player decline. I expect both these things to be positive for the Celtics.

1. Here are my expectations for Roster turnover:
Leaving: Dooling, Hollins, Pietrus, Pavlovic, Williams, Daniels
Joining: 1st round pick, 1st round pick, Jeff Green, Wilcox, One free agent at about $4-8 MM (depending on cost of other contracts), vet min free agent maybe one from group above

Those coming in at least on paper are much better than the role players leaving. This is assuming we bring KG and Bass back. This is also assuming we keep Ray or replace him with a bench player capable of scoring.

2. Players getting better: Rondo, Bradley, Moore, JJJ, Stiemsma
Players getting worse: Pierce, Garnett, Ray.

Again I think this is another positive. Garnett looked rejuvinated playing the 5 plus with less injuries I expect Doc to further cut his minutes, which could help him stay at the same level. Pierce's game doesn't rely on athletecism so his decline shouldn't be awful. Ray has been playing hurt most of the year and should be fully healthy and rested scoring off the bench. Rondo has improved his shot this year and this improvement should continue. Bradley showed us a glimpse of what he can be and with his youth you have to believe he improves. Moore showed on a limited basis that he can score in the league, I expect him to get more backup 1 minutes next year. JJJ is by all accounts a hard working kid, next year he will come in bigger and stronger with a better grasp of the system and doc more willing to give him a chance.

Overall I think it isn't a stretch to say the Celtics will be even better next year.

we already are a jump shooting team. We will have plenty jump shooters next year. the key is getting a proven center to keep KG fresh all year long and pummel teams like the cheat inside unmercifully to which we cannot do now. We cannot rely on steamer next year to be that guy. ain't happening. sorry.

[Junkyard Dawg]

the problem with expecting KG and Pierce to come back next season is that they've both seen that Danny is willing and eager to trade them if he sees the team is underperforming come all-star break.  Pierce has said he is considering retirement, why would he want to come back if he knows Danny already tried to trade him to the joke of a franchise Nets for Mehmet Okur and a sack of oranges?  Why would KG want to sign for another year knowing he's risking getting shipped away at the all-star break?