Do people really think the lottery is fixed?

[fairweatherfan]

One thing that gets me is, why can't we watch the actual lottery pick live rather than watching them hand out envelopes.  Why can't we see the numbers come up in the box for ourselves?  And why do we even have a lottery in the first place?

Sure teams would tank but it works in the NFL.  Worst team picks first.  Easy peasy, move on with our basketball lives.

Because watching the actual lottery is boring as heck and I'm sure the tv execs and the league have pondered this before.  There is no suspense since the first pick is drawn first.

The way the show is presently constructed as builds suspense which is what tv is looking for in the first place since it oftens drives ratings.

In contrast to the NFL, with the small rosters and the way in which a single player can certainly change a franchise, tanking becomes much more significant in terms of ramifications. 

Davis will turn around that franchise a heckuva lot more quickly than Andrew Luck will turn around the Colts.  Its the nature of the sport.

Yeah, but they could film it and release the film after it is announced on television.  Frankly, it might end all of this nonsense year in and year out so they probably should do that.

I believe they've done that in the past - somebody (Hobbs?) in another thread said they'd watched it.  And lots of people watch it live now. Naturally it's done nothing to quiet the conspiracy talk - if you believe the draw is rigged and don't trouble yourself with thinking about or even looking into how it would actually work, you're just gonna take whatever the result is, think of why Stern/the league might want that result, and then conclude it was fixed, strengthening your belief.

People think the Hornets winning was rigged, but they'd be saying the same thing if the Nets won.  Or the Cavs (it's all about LeBron) or the Kings (leverage for a new arena or to leave town) or the Blazers (do-over for the rigged Oden draw), or even the Bobcats (favor to Jordan), etc etc.  When you start with a vague, broad conclusion and seek evidence to fit it, it's really easy to "find" that evidence all around you.

[Lucky17]

Fixed? No.

Flawed? Yes.

For example, I think I read somewhere last year that execs had little faith in the process by which the 1,001 combinations are allocated to teams. Their question: if 250 of the possible 1,001 combinations go to the team with the worst record, how do we know that those combinations are proportionally and evenly distributed throughout the range of possible combinations (i.e., that the majority of the 250 winning combinations don't require the first ping-pong ball to be a 1 or 2)?

[Employee8]

I have an idea.

HUGE bubble ball suspended by wires.  Open up a hatch and dump in 1000 balls, each marked by invisible ink to represent the teams in the lottery.  Then the rep of the first pick can jump into the bubble ball, swim around and decide on a ball.  Present it to the commissioner and he will inspect it under black light to reveal the team name.  Presto!

Then the rest are sorted out with those weird numbers they do now and we find out about the 2-14 picks later on the next day.

[tyrone biggums]

How about fill David Stern with 1000 ping pong balls and suspend him over MSG as a real life Piñata. Everyone wins!

[fairweatherfan]

Fixed? No.

Flawed? Yes.

For example, I think I read somewhere last year that execs had little faith in the process by which the 1,001 combinations are allocated to teams. Their question: if 250 of the possible 1,001 combinations go to the team with the worst record, how do we know that those combinations are proportionally and evenly distributed throughout the range of possible combinations (i.e., that the majority of the 250 winning combinations don't require the first ping-pong ball to be a 1 or 2)?

That shouldn't matter at all, unless the balls are  rigged to come up more or less often.  And since I believe they're all drawn from the same pool, there's no way to rig just the ball that comes up first - if you want the 1 to come up more often, it'll come up more often in all 4 positions.  And that assumes the auditing process for a lottery doesn't involve checking all the draw materials which seems really, really unlikely.

[StartOrien]

In my opinion, it'd be pretty easy to fix the lottery. Any physicist worth his pay stub could find a pretty good equation to weigh the balls in a certain manner to make a desired outcome SIGNIFICANTLY more likely.

Considering other things Dictator Stern has done, I wouldn't put it pass him one bit.

[LarBrd33]

In my opinion, it'd be pretty easy to fix the lottery. Any physicist worth his pay stub could find a pretty good equation to weigh the balls in a certain manner to make a desired outcome SIGNIFICANTLY more likely.

Considering other things Dictator Stern has done, I wouldn't put it pass him one bit.

So you're weighing the balls so that a 4 digit combination will come up?  Isn't it just going to keep come up over and over and over and over and over again?  I dunno man... seems unlikely.

[StartOrien]

In my opinion, it'd be pretty easy to fix the lottery. Any physicist worth his pay stub could find a pretty good equation to weigh the balls in a certain manner to make a desired outcome SIGNIFICANTLY more likely.

Considering other things Dictator Stern has done, I wouldn't put it pass him one bit.

So you're weighing the balls so that a 4 digit combination will come up?  Isn't it just going to keep come up over and over and over and over and over again?  I dunno man... seems unlikely.

That's the great thing about science and math, they're limitless.

[StartOrien]

I'm just messing around, gang. Pretty well documented that it'd be extremely difficult to fix.

[bdm860]

I get conspiracy theories in sports (not that I believe any of them).  And I certainly can see how someone could at least make a plausible argument with respect to game outcomes (using refs, fouls, suspensions, etc.), but for the life of me cannot find a plausible argument that the lottery is fixed.  I mean the teams and media have representatives in the room when it happens.  Everyone that has been in there has said fixing it would be impossible based on the way it is done.  So I'm really confused as to why people believe the lottery is fixed.  I just don't get it.  

Also, I realize it can be fun to talk about this sort of thing on a forum.  It is entertaining and what not, but I just can't believe that people truly believe the lottery is fixed.  Am I right or wrong?  

I think some people just have their conspiracy theories all wrong.  I never viewed it as they all go into a room and have a beer and a laugh while Stern tells them he decided the Hornets should get the first pick.  To me, it seems like people who think the lottery is fixed, thinks this is how it goes down.  Which leads to the: “Why can’t they televise/show the drawings.”  But I agree this makes no sense.
 
But, the conspiracy theorist in me still thinks the lottery could be fixed.  I just don’t think anybody other than Stern and a few select cronies are in on it, so all the  team Executives and the PWC security guy all have no clue about “the fix”.  Now let me put a disclaimer on it right now, I enjoy a good heist movie, I enjoy movies like Ocean’s Eleven, the Thomas Crown Affair, and I like the TV show Leverage, things like that, etc.  The NBA is a billion dollar business.  Do I think the whole process could somehow be rigged by Stern so the team of his choice gets first pick?  Well I definitely don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility.  There could be some kind of elaborate set up that fools everybody in the room.  I mean guys like David Copperfield and David Blaine have made a career out of this.  But maybe I’ve just seen one too many magic shows and have seen Ocean’s Eleven too many times  

[Moranis]

According to the writer from the Cleveland Plain Dealer, I forget her name, the lottery had 5 draws this year and only 3 draws last year.  She said the first ball was New Orleans, then Charlotte, then New Orleans again, then Charlotte again, and then Washington.  Last year it was just Cleveland, Minnesota, and Utah without repeats.  

[LarBrd33]

In my opinion, it'd be pretty easy to fix the lottery. Any physicist worth his pay stub could find a pretty good equation to weigh the balls in a certain manner to make a desired outcome SIGNIFICANTLY more likely.

Considering other things Dictator Stern has done, I wouldn't put it pass him one bit.

So you're weighing the balls so that a 4 digit combination will come up?  Isn't it just going to keep come up over and over and over and over and over again?  I dunno man... seems unlikely.

That's the great thing about science and math, they're limitless.

Ok but there are 1000 different 4 digit combinations and 137 of those 4 digit combinations were assigned to the Hornets.  I mean... it just sounds silly.  It's not as simple as weighing a "hornets" ball differently than the others.  You'd have to weigh a few of the numbers differently and then how would you anticipate which balls would come up in which order that would benefit the Hornets and their 137 combinations more than the Bobcats and their 250 combinations or Wizards and their 199 combinations or the Cavs and their 138.

[fairweatherfan]

In my opinion, it'd be pretty easy to fix the lottery. Any physicist worth his pay stub could find a pretty good equation to weigh the balls in a certain manner to make a desired outcome SIGNIFICANTLY more likely.

Considering other things Dictator Stern has done, I wouldn't put it pass him one bit.

I heard Fuhrer Stern had Schrodinger's cat shot because he will not tolerate uncertainty.

[LarBrd33]

According to the writer from the Cleveland Plain Dealer, I forget her name, the lottery had 5 draws this year and only 3 draws last year.  She said the first ball was New Orleans, then Charlotte, then New Orleans again, then Charlotte again, and then Washington.  Last year it was just Cleveland, Minnesota, and Utah without repeats.  

See my post on the 1st page.  This is something the league has mentioned several times in the past.  Often the same team wins over and over and over again and they said the actual lotto ball process would make for terrible television (which is why they don't show it).  Last year must have been an aberration.   There are 1000 possible 4 digit combinations and the Bobcats owned 250 of those.  The Hornets owned 137 of them.  So it's very possible that the same team can come up again and again and they'll need to re-draw.

Also... showing the actual lotto ball process would take the drama out of it.  It would just start with the lotto balls showing the winner... then potentially a few botched attempts and figuring out who the #2 and #3 teams are.  By then nobody would care.  The way it is shown on TV now, there is this exciting buildup team-by-team-by-team and finally revealing the top 2.  They couldn't build a half hour TV special out of it as easily without the drama of the final reveal.  Still... there seems to be nothing preventing them from showing video of the entire lotto ball process online after the fact just to put these concerns to rest.

[Moranis]

According to the writer from the Cleveland Plain Dealer, I forget her name, the lottery had 5 draws this year and only 3 draws last year.  She said the first ball was New Orleans, then Charlotte, then New Orleans again, then Charlotte again, and then Washington.  Last year it was just Cleveland, Minnesota, and Utah without repeats.  

See my post on the 1st page.  This is something the league has mentioned several times in the past.  Often the same team wins over and over and over again and they said the actual lotto ball process would make for terrible television (which is why they don't show it).  Last year must have been an aberration.   There are 1000 possible 4 digit combinations and the Bobcats owned 250 of those.  The Hornets owned 137 of them.  So it's very possible that the same team can come up again and again and they'll need to re-draw.

Also... showing the actual lotto ball process would take the drama out of it.  It would just start with the lotto balls showing the winner... then potentially a few botched attempts and figuring out who the #2 and #3 teams are.  By then nobody would care.  The way it is shown on TV now, there is this exciting buildup team-by-team-by-team and finally revealing the top 2.  They couldn't build a half hour TV special out of it as easily without the drama of the final reveal.  Still... there seems to be nothing preventing them from showing video of the entire lotto ball process online after the fact just to put these concerns to rest.

I think they should show it on NBA tv, but after it airs on TNT or ESPN.  That way anyone that wants to can watch it and it doesn't kill the drama.  And frankly what else are they going to show on NBA tv when there is a playoff game on.