I've posted a couple of ideas on here before and the feedback was mixed so I figure I'll try again.
My opinion changes day to day on this and sometimes I don't even believe that I could say or think this but...
a Celtics rebuild cannot include Paul Pierce.The reasons are both financial and emotional. First and foremost Paul is a $16M contract for the next 2 years. While that would be fine for a team on the rise and certainly reasonable for what Pierce contributes it does not lend itself to any of the goals of a rebuild or a youth movement. If Pierce stays he will start. He'll get slower and he'll be efficient but on the decline. His skills ensure that we won't be a lottery team and his contract ensures that we'll have trouble throwing money at big name FAs. This is Boston and big name FAs aren't exactly beating down our door so we need the cap space.
There is a part of my heart that says Pierce deserves to retire a Celtic and only a Celtic. I think he knows if he doesn't do it this season it's more than likely he won't (see the retirement allusions post-trade deadline). So swallowing the hard pill that Paul won't be part of our team for the first time in 14 years here are the options:
- Pierce retires
- Pierce is traded
- Pierce is amnestied
The best situation for the Celtics is a trade. Paul is obviously still a gifted scorer and has a lot to offer a contending team. He's the youngest of our big-3 and he is still worth a decent amount in trade scenarios.
I have two scenarios for trading Pierce.
UTA: [Pierce/JJJ] for [Harris/Milsap]
LAL: [Pierce] for [Gasol]
The first trade is good because Utah didn't seem to want Harris last season and they are stacked at the PF position. All the while they suffer rookies or Josh Howard at the SF. Additionally this saves them some $. My thinking is that if Garnett comes back at a reasonable salary (8-10M) then we won't need an All-star scoring PF like Gasol and this trade makes our bench a monster. With the intention of signing Jeff Green back to the roster this really helps our depth and Milsap can give KG the 20-25 minutes a night and eat up the other 20-25. Harris is not a great NBA guard anymore but he can run an offense efficiently and he would be the best backup we've had since Cassell.
If Garnett decides to either retire or (less likely) sign elsewhere, we need to replace at least some his skill to remain afloat. Gasol is a costly contract but he has a lot of good basketball left. It makes a ton of sense for the Celtics but the Lakers might not be sold on giving up size for an aging Paul Pierce so here is why it makes sense for them. Trading Gasol for Pierce gives them a legitimate second scoring option on the wing. LA can amnesty RonRon and get a very solid defender to replace him in Pierce as well as increased scoring. LA saves ~4M per year for two years on just the 1-for-1 trade and another 7M per year if they amnesty Artest. Essentially this trade nets the Lakers an amazing player on the tail end of his career and roughly 11M of cap relief pear year (which they desperately need). The problem is that this scenario works with any SF on the market and PP might not be the best option for them.
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There are a dozen or so other trades I thought up but let's move on to the Pierce retirement option.
It is my opinion that the teams options are the same whether KG re-ups next season or not. If KG comes back for the hometown price of 8M/year for 1-2 years then we have to put someone young and reasonably talented behind him to eat minutes. I hoped we could get a good PF via a Pierce trade but if not I'd probably use the picks we have to get PF/C options. As NBA ready as we can find and BIG. Names that come to mind are:
Jared Sullinger
Meyers Leonard
Arnett Moultrie
Fab Melo
Festus Ezeli
We'd have to trade up for Sullinger and maybe for Moultrie but the others are slated to go around our picks. Whether KG re-ups or not we still need talented big men to develop and play for us. Our back court looks pretty solid with RR/AB and if we get Jeff Green resigned I think we just need to focus on the low post.
- Pierce retires
- Allen walks
- KG signs for 2 years (8M)
- Green resigns (8M)
- Bass walks
That makes our team:
PG Rondo
SG Bradley
SF Green
PF Garnett
C Stiemsma
BENCH = JJJ, 1/2/3 Drafted Rookies
Salary is around ~31M and that leaves ~29M in cap space. If we want to sign FAs that is almost 2 (young) max contracts (Gordon/Hibbert) or we can just fill out the roster with role players and wait for a better FA class. I'd probably prefer to shoot the moon on a big man and a talented wing to pair with Rondo/KG/Green but that is just me. We can sign our rookies over the cap and fill out the bench on vet's min. contracts. I really like Pietrus and would give him a little more than the minimum but that is it for our current roster.
So if we don't gloriously burn our way to banner #18 this season I think a Pierce-less-Celtics is pretty much the best way to brave the new landscape of the NBA. Small market teams have to get better through more so from savvy trading and the draft rather than big splashes in free agency and we need to start now or risk getting stuck in the cellar.
