I've mentioned this too many times in various NBA forums. Maybe I'm reaching, but it's high time I dedicate a thread to it. Bill Simmons has his "Ewing Theory". I have my "11 Game Rule". Basically, the "11 Game Rule" is my theory that a seemingly unknown or unlikely young player will take the world by storm for exactly 11 games before ultimately falling off a cliff and fading into normalcy.
Why does this keep happening? My wild guess is that it takes time for the NBA scouting to catch up with the unknown player. There's about 360 active players in this league... so you have to assume that anyone who makes it onto an active NBA roster is one of the top 400 greatest basketball players alive. We can assume that guy has talent. But what kind of talent? The "unknown" is a MASSIVE advantage when you get to this level. I submit to you "Unknown Street Baller" vs Devin Harris as an example of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ysv3v7uXblwYou might remember this video. It's a game where Devin Harris temporarily got "punked" by some random street baller named Stuart Tanner. A lot of people found this shocking. I didn't. Big deal... Tanner surprised Harris with his skillset. If that kid plays Harris one-on-one 10 times... I bet Harris beats him 9 of those times. Once he figures out the kid's tendencies, it's over.
So why 11 games? Not exactly sure. First, it takes time for the league to "catch up". But second... my wild guess is that mentally a player wants to get over the 10 game hump. If you're a young unknown "shocking the world"... taking your streak to double digits is probably key to proving you've "made it". Making it to 11 is even better. We're talking about almost a full month of elite NBA basketball... surely that means they have arrived, right? By game 12, I think they assume they have secured their status... and an inevitably fall-off in focus occurs... perfectly coinciding with the league catching up to them.
Examples of the "11 Game Rule".DaJuan Wagner (2002): http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wagneda02/gamelog/2003/ - I think I first noticed it with Wagner, but he might be the biggest stretch. Wagner was a 19 year old who had scored 100 points in a high-school game. He wasn't exactly "unknown". The guy was picked 6th by the Cavs and started out the season dropping huge numbers. First 11 games of the season: 17 points, 5 points, 29 points, 28 points, 25 points, 29 points, 18 points, 7 points, 33 points, 3 points, 29 points. He came out of the gate averaging 20 points as a rookie. Very impressive. The 19 year old was averaging 20 points... The next Iverson! People were hysterical. Imagine how good he'll be when he gets older! ...
Game 12 Bust: 10 points on 3-15 shooting ... Wagner was never really the same. He had some ok games here or there, but for the most part the league had caught up to him. Finished the season shooting 37% and was out of the league a couple years later.
Flip Murray (2003): http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/murraro01/gamelog/2004/ - Flip was the most delicious and classic example of the "11 Game Rule". In his second season (after doing essentially nothing as a rookie) he suddenly found himself starting in place of an injured Ray Allen in Seattle. His first 11 games was the stuff of legends: 24 points, 22 points, 24 points, 24 points, 29 points, 20 points, 16 points, 26 points, 31 points, 26 points, 21 points ... Just ridiculous. All the while shooting ridiculous percentages. People in Seattle flipped out. Flip made Ray Allen expendable just like MIchael Redd made Ray expendable on the Bucks! We could trade Ray and build around Flip! A hidden superstar!!
Game 12 Bust: 11 points on 4-17 shooting. He was never the same. After averaging 24 points over those first 11 games he ended up finishing the season averaging 12 on 42% shooting (29% from three). He was a role player from then on out and nothing more than a role player.
Brandon Jennings (2009): http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jennibr01/gamelog/2010/ - The Brandon Jennings thing never made a lick of sense to me. He was like a 35% shooter in Europe. Why was he suddenly shooting like 55%? SUrely you all remember this. Jennings in his first 11 games as a 19 year old rookie: 17 points, 24 points, 25 points, 9 points, 17 points, 32 points, 55 points, 25 points, 19 points, 29 points, 26 points. Dude was averaging 25 points, but more impressively the Bucks had won 8 of those 11 games. Nationally, people went nuts. He was surely the next Allen Iverson. I viewed a Bucks forum and all the posts were about how they had finally found their top 5 superstar franchise player. There was a thread on here with incredibly respected members of this forum flat out saying they'd trade Rondo for Jennings in a heartbeat, but "The Bucks would never do it". It was unreal. Kid dropped 55 points in his 7th game!!
Game 12 Bust: 12 points on 6-21 shooting. OUCH. Over the next 30 games, he shot 50% only twice. OOUCH. He finished the season shooting 37%. Woof. To be fair to Jennings, he's still very young and improving. Still, nobody is going to confuse him for Allen Iverson. Jennings was the first player I accurately predicted would fade after 11 games based on the "11 Game Rule".
LINSANITY (2012): http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01/gamelog/2012/ - Oh man. Linsanity was my favorite, because I saw it coming a mile away and I told everyone it would be dead after 11 games. As we all know, Jeremy Lin was an unknown undrafted d-leaguer who had been cut by multiple NBA teams and suddenly found himself the starting point guard in Mike DiAntoni's point guard friendly Knicks system. First 11 games after getting the start: 25 points, 28 points, 23 points, 38 points, 20 points, 27 points, 10 points, 26 points, 28 points, 21 points, 17 points ... Nothing short of unbelievable. He was shooting unbelievable percentages, dishing assists... and flat out dominating while the KNicks were rolling (winning 9 of those games). Incredible. Sure, nobody was willing to admit that the KNicks had won 13 in a row with Ray Felton running the show just the year prior (with even more impressive averages and FAR less turnovers)... but still... Impressive!
Game 12 Bust: 8 points, 8 turnovers and 1-11 shooting. WOOOOOF. Knicks skid to the tune of losing 7 of the next 8 games. Lin's percentages drop and they lose their coach. Lin ends up getting injured and misses the rest of the season for the first round playoff fodder Knicks. Now, I admit that Lin's story might not be over. He continued to show some inconsistent signs of being great over his next 15 games (in which he shot under 40% and continued to have one of the worst assist-to-turnover ratios among starting point guards)... but it's still interesting that el-busto happened after the 11 game surge.
Honorable mention Avery Bradley 2012: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bradlav01/gamelog/2012/ - Oh man... do I hope this one ends up being wrong. Bradley didn't exactly "light the world on fire" nor has he exactly faded from existence, but I have to at least bring it up. He officially gained the starting position from Ray Allen on 4/5 against Chicago. Bradley had started before, but this was the first game the Celtics finally decided, "From here on out... Bradley is our starting shooting guard and Ray is coming off the bench" (Ray had started the game prior). So begins our 11 game clock: 9 points, 4 points, 18 points, 11 points, 7 points, 15 points, 18 points, 22 points, 17 points, 23 points, 28 points. Not bad. Our boy averaged 16 points during the stretch, but more impressively he shot 55% during that stretch and a ridiculous 69% from three.
Game 12 Bust: Bradley goes 2-10. 0-1 from three. You guys probably didn't notice, because our team keeps rolling... but in the 8 games since his 11 game stretch... he's averaged 8 points on 36% shooting. He's 3-17 from three point land (18%). We haven't seen the sharp shooting Bradley in a while. Let's hope it's his shoulder issue and not just the death of a hot streak. Interesting nonetheless and I had to include it.
In closing... the whole thing is a massive stretch with many holes that can be poked in it. This is all in fun. That said, I'm sticking with it. I will no longer get carried away by a hot streak from a young player until they prove they can get it done in game 12. Until game 12... you're just another mediocre player catching the NBA off guard.
