If Rose can get healthy by playoff time, if Noah is healthy, if Deng is healthy, and as long as Boozer doesn't get...worse, I think they're contenders. They're vulnerable, for sure, but still contenders. Rose when he's on is so good, because of his MVP award backlash, I think he's now underrated. On his own, to turn a game, there isn't a more dangerous PG in basketball. Even better than CP3 at putting a team on his back and just willing a win, and CP3 is just...amazing.
But with Rose's injury and basketball's politics, yeah they could fall out of contention. Or thy could be what Memphis was supposed to be this year.