This team CANNOT WIN a championship without Ray Allen

[Senninsage]

I already told people this, and they wouldn't listen. They can't win one without Ray. No matter how old he has gotten, he is too [dang] important to this team. I hope he comes back healthy. We can win games and series without Ray, but I don't see us winning a championship with him.

[colincb]

Ray Allen didnt show up at all in the 2008 series vs the Hawks,…

Ray was high scorer twice, 2nd highest twice, and 3rd highest twice in the 2008 series against the Hawks with an eFG rate of 51% (which is better than what Pierce shot as finals MVP) while averaging 16.1 ppg as the 3rd highest scorer in the series.

…and has historically not shown up in the playoffs except for a few games in his Celtic career.

Those few game include the 19 games where Ray  was high scorer, the 17 games where he second highest scorer and the 13 games where he was third highest scorer for a total of 48 games out of 73 or 66% of our playoff total where he was one of the top 3 scorers.  This is second to Pierce.  Only Celtic with playoff “game winning” shots [last 24 seconds, down 0-2 points with a shot that puts the team ahead] with 3 pointers against CHI in game 2 (2009) and  against NYK in game 2 (2011).

Ray could have easily been named Finals MVP in 2008 as he was second to Pierce in scoring with over 20 PPG vs Pierce's 22 PPG, but shot a blistering eFG% of  66% compared to Pierce's eFG% of 50%, crushed the Finals 3 point mark with 22 in 6 games obliterating the prior mark of 17, and was the primary defender on Kobe. One of the best remembered plays was when he broke Sasha's ankles in sealing the Lakers' fate in "The Comeback."

Pierce had a wonderful series too, was high scorer, shot well, took over the defense of Kobe in the second half of the critical game 4 comeback (though everyone forgets that Ray shut Kobe down in the first half), almost pulled off another comeback in game 5, and was the assist leader in the last three games of the series as Rondo struggled mightily.  Classic play was his block of Kobe in the 3rd quarter that really kicked "The Comeback" into high gear.

In the end I think because Pierce’s body of work in the playoffs clearly topped Ray’s, including carrying the Cs in the classic duel against Lebron in game 7, he won what on paper was a race that slightly favored Ray otherwise, as the following analysis argues:

http://thehoopdoctors.com/online2/2008/06/should-ray-allen-have-received-the-nba-finals-mvp/


I think it's safe to say that was an important series and that Ray showed up. No?

[colincb]

I'm tired of the anti Ray talk. I'm tired of the unrealistic expectations of a 21 year old kid.

Ray Allen's impact on this team is huge. Forget the LARGE number of huge shots he has hit over these past 5 years (and it's a very large number) the spacing, playing decoy, ect. ect. ect.

We need him. It literally bothers me to hear the negative talk about him. He has done nothing but help this franchise win. Even playing incredible defense in the playoffs over the years.

If Ray was playing tonight, we win, IMO. We didn't hit a single 3 pointer tonight. Bradley is going to be a fine player, but this stage is just flat out too big for him right now..

Walter Ray Allen, please get well soon.

Ray Allen didnt show up at all in the 2008 series vs the Hawks, and has historically not shown up in the playoffs except for a few games in his Celtic career.

I dont get why you think Ray will all of the sudden be some huge scorer for the entire playoffs, he is a streak shooter, its a coin flip if hes going to have it for a series, and judging by how neither KG or PP had it for the first half, I wouldnt expect Ray after missing all this time to have it either.

In 2008, Ray averaged 16 PPG 40% from three.
In 2009, Ray averaged 18 PPG and 35% from three. Also had that 51 point game, and the game winner over Noah against Chi.
In 2010 Ray averaged 16 PPG and 39% from three. Oh, and a finals record for threes in a game.
In 2011 Ray averaged 19 PPG and 57% from three. Also had a game winner against the Knicks.

This is a very basic outline and I'm missing a lot more important details, like defense, other big games, big shots, ect ect.....

But I think this absolutely destroys your theory that he "historically doesn't show up for playoff games, except for a couple."

Like mentioned in this thread, the room for error for this team is so very small. Without Ray? Might as well forfeit.

We can't win without Ray but you cherry picked your stats.

He was AWFUL against cleveland in 08 and against Detroit.

You mention that he set a finals record for 3's in a game and fail to mention his 0-13 performance the very next game which the celtics lost or the fact he was 0-11 for the first 40 minutes of game 7.

Ray was by far his best in that epic chicago series in 09 and we need him to make any serious noise this playoffs but he has had plenty of no shows too.

Ray was better in the finals against the Lakers in 2008 where he also set the series records for 3s, guarded Kobe into a subpar series, and had a blistering eFG% of 66%. Could have been MVP of Finals as I argue in my prior post above.  Ray also was arguably our best player in last year's playoffs as team-leading high scorer 3 times and tied Pierce with 8 appearances among top 3 scorers in 9 games.

[colincb]

Don't believe this whatsoever. I have no stats to back my opinion. But Ray has been an afterthought to this team for weeks and weeks and the team has continued to win against the toughest competition.

I think if he returns and can not be the Ray that we have come accustomed to he may actually hurt this team more than help them. If he returns and is not hitting threes and is having opposing players blow by him and giving up big points like he was for most of the last couple of months, I think it hurts this team more than helps.

If he returns and can be the efficient outside shooting presence and won't be a sieve on defense, I think he will help this team considerably.

But I don't think for a second he has to play in order for this team to succeed during this playoff season.

Ray’s allowing 101 points per 100 possessions defensively (see A below) vs a league average of 104.6 (see B below).  How is he getting killed defensively as you claim if these stats are correct?

(A) See 2012 “DRtg” for Ray Allen in “Advanced” table:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2012.html

(B) Click on the column heading “DRtg” in the “Miscellaneous Statistics” table:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012.html

[nickagneta]

Don't believe this whatsoever. I have no stats to back my opinion. But Ray has been an afterthought to this team for weeks and weeks and the team has continued to win against the toughest competition.

I think if he returns and can not be the Ray that we have come accustomed to he may actually hurt this team more than help them. If he returns and is not hitting threes and is having opposing players blow by him and giving up big points like he was for most of the last couple of months, I think it hurts this team more than helps.

If he returns and can be the efficient outside shooting presence and won't be a sieve on defense, I think he will help this team considerably.

But I don't think for a second he has to play in order for this team to succeed during this playoff season.

Ray’s allowing 101 points per 100 possessions defensively (see A below) vs a league average of 104.6 (see B below).  How is he getting killed defensively as you claim if these stats are correct?

(A) See 2012 “DRtg” for Ray Allen in “Advanced” table:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2012.html

(B) Click on the column heading “DRtg” in the “Miscellaneous Statistics” table:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012.html

I am not a huge believer in those team oriented defensive stats such as +/- and so forth as I could easily point to the on/off court defensive stats of Ray Allen and say that the Celtics are a better defensive team when he is off the court, by almost 5 points per 100 possessions which I think is very evident to the watchful eye.

Stats be [dang]ed. Watch the play. Ray, lately and especially since being hurt is a horrid defensive player giving up way more than he produces on most nights.

[ManUp]

It's all a long shot either way.

I like our chances better with Ray, but I wouldn't say we can't win without him.

We have the wings as long as Pierce, Petrius, and Bradley stay healthy.

[colincb]

Don't believe this whatsoever. I have no stats to back my opinion. But Ray has been an afterthought to this team for weeks and weeks and the team has continued to win against the toughest competition.

I think if he returns and can not be the Ray that we have come accustomed to he may actually hurt this team more than help them. If he returns and is not hitting threes and is having opposing players blow by him and giving up big points like he was for most of the last couple of months, I think it hurts this team more than helps.

If he returns and can be the efficient outside shooting presence and won't be a sieve on defense, I think he will help this team considerably.

But I don't think for a second he has to play in order for this team to succeed during this playoff season.

Ray’s allowing 101 points per 100 possessions defensively (see A below) vs a league average of 104.6 (see B below).  How is he getting killed defensively as you claim if these stats are correct?

(A) See 2012 “DRtg” for Ray Allen in “Advanced” table:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2012.html

(B) Click on the column heading “DRtg” in the “Miscellaneous Statistics” table:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012.html

I am not a huge believer in those team oriented defensive stats such as +/- and so forth as I could easily point to the on/off court defensive stats of Ray Allen and say that the Celtics are a better defensive team when he is off the court, by almost 5 points per 100 possessions which I think is very evident to the watchful eye.

Stats be [dang]ed. Watch the play. Ray, lately and especially since being hurt is a horrid defensive player giving up way more than he produces on most nights.

Well, good individual defensive stats are very tough to come up with in any sport.  I’m of the opposite opinion as to the usefukness of +/- on/off court stats.  In Ray’s case, he was 2nd best on the Cs defensively using on/off stats in 2010 and 2nd worse in 2012 despite a nice improvement in his on-court defensive rating.  That does not make a lot of sense in either year and there are plenty of anomalies like that.

As far as on/off court stats are concerned, they don’t support the idea that the Cs are getting killed defensively when Ray is playing compared to what Ray brings to the table offensively.  The biggest problem on this team isn’t defense anyway.  It is a drop in offensive production and Ray’s got little to do with it other than not playing more and getting more FG attempts when he does.  eFG% are down league-wide, but it has been much more pronounced on the Cs. However, Ray is shooting much closer to his 2012 eFG% than the other players on the team.

[rayallen1934]

It's all a long shot either way.

I like our chances better with Ray, but I wouldn't say we can't win without him.

We have the wings as long as Pierce, Petrius, and Bradley stay healthy.

a Healthy Ray Allen in this series and we win game 1 and probably sweep this team or win in 5. Its that simple.


People will say were ok , we look good, blah blah blah

but in THIS SERIES, a healthy Ray Allen should not be only playing but SHOULD BE STARTING.

[chambers]

I don't know if I agree 100% I think we need him, but if you compare things to 2008, we have KG, Pierce and Rondo all playing very well. We also have Bradley playing extremely well.
Is it possible to argue that Rondo in 08 is comparable to Avery Bradley now?
Or that Rondo is now even better than Ray was in 2008?
I think it is. Ray Allen is great but as long as we can have someone that provides a replacement in a different form we should be just as deadly.
Bradley's defense is better and his energy is better than Ray's was in 2008. Rondo is far better than he was. KG isn't as good, neither is Pierce, but they are close when they are at their best.

I would much rather Ray was healthy, and it does make a very difficult task that much harder unfortunately.

[rayallen1934]

I don't know if I agree 100% I think we need him, but if you compare things to 2008, we have KG, Pierce and Rondo all playing very well. We also have Bradley playing extremely well.
Is it possible to argue that Rondo in 08 is comparable to Avery Bradley now?
Or that Rondo is now even better than Ray was in 2008?
I think it is. Ray Allen is great but as long as we can have someone that provides a replacement in a different form we should be just as deadly.
Bradley's defense is better and his energy is better than Ray's was in 2008. Rondo is far better than he was. KG isn't as good, neither is Pierce, but they are close when they are at their best.

I would much rather Ray was healthy, and it does make a very difficult task that much harder unfortunately.

Are u kidding me? Bordeline joke.

can bradley or rondo hit a 3 pointer in clutch time? can they score 51? You gotta be kidding me. Cant make this stuff up.

[anthony83]

Definitely this team cannot win a championship without him.

[angryguy77]

Don't believe this whatsoever. I have no stats to back my opinion. But Ray has been an afterthought to this team for weeks and weeks and the team has continued to win against the toughest competition.

I think if he returns and can not be the Ray that we have come accustomed to he may actually hurt this team more than help them. If he returns and is not hitting threes and is having opposing players blow by him and giving up big points like he was for most of the last couple of months, I think it hurts this team more than helps.

If he returns and can be the efficient outside shooting presence and won't be a sieve on defense, I think he will help this team considerably.

But I don't think for a second he has to play in order for this team to succeed during this playoff season.

have you not noticed that the last impressive win for the C's was at Miami and that was the last game that Ray played in.

all these comments about Ray being ineffective for playoff stretches evidently have no clue about basketball.

isn't this the same Ray Allen who single-handedly won game 2 in LA in 2010 ? if you want to criticize his struggles the rest of that series, remember that one of the dirtiest guys in the league, Ron Artest shoved a knee into Ray's thigh in game 3 and thus hampered Allen's lift on his jump shot.

isn't this the same Ray Allen who rained 3's down on the Lakers in the game 6 clincher in '08 or made the game clinching drive in game 4 of that same year ??

We Need Ray Allen to Win a Title - end of discussion.

Ray won game 2 but couldnt hit a shot for the rest of the series lol.

Pretty sure the knee to his thigh had something to do with that...


I tend to side with Nick on this one. I don't think not having Ray is an automatic DQ for us. We can still do this without him imo.

[looseball]

The problem with Ray is really the problem with Doc.
Doc relies on his starters more than any other coach.  For the first half of this year,when Ray was starting and averaging 35 mpg, we were a .500-team.  And the only team where all 5 starters were averaging 30 or more mpg.  In one loss on the west coast, Ray was on the court for 42 minutes on a night when he scored 7 points on 3-10 shooting (0-6 on threes), while dishing out 1 assist.

When Bradley and Pertius got meaningful playing time, the whole dynamics of the team changed.  Defensive intensity became the catalyst that turned the season around.  Our consistent defensive pressure disrupts the other team's offensive rhythm and frustrates them.  This frustration carries over to the other end of the court where their own defense loses a little of its edge, allowing us to score enough points to win.  Guys like Steimsma, Petrovich an Dooling are valuable because they contribute to this kind of defensive pressure, and should get meaningful minutes every night.

Getting back to Ray, if he should get healthy, and Doc would play him for 20 mpg (instead of 35 mpg), that IMO would be the optimum use of Ray Allen at this point in time. 
(Although, in the loss the other night, Doc played Pierce for 42 min. and KG for 40 min. on a night when neither were at the top of their games.)
   

[alajet]

Ray's clutch play, court stretching and grabbing attention of opposite defenders is invaluable.
It's unrealistic and to some degree, unfair to expect Bradley to do these things all of a sudden.
Avery Bradley has 1 game playoff experience under his belt. 1!!
I appreciate his effort, but at the moment, he's just a kid and more experienced players will find ways to exploit his weaknesses, which, of course, begins with the size issue.
Not that Ray was a better defender, but the problem is, as a 21-year-old kid, they can get to Avery's head far more easily.

I'd rather see Ray in uniform rather than in an elegant suit.
We're not going to win it all without Ray. Not because our bench lacks scoring power. It actually did, since the Big Three era began. It's because he's not a 15-minute bench player, but the plan was to play him around 30 minutes per game off the bench in a sixth-man role. So, basically this team had six starters to go with, and now, it has just five without Ray.
I don't have a good feeling about this. I hope Ray returns soon.

[RajonRondo9Dime]

I think the chances of us winning with him are slim as well, but without him? Well we might as well quit.

This is by far our least deep team we've had in the last 5 years...

I mean, without Ray, who's coming off the bench that's even halfway decent? We have ONE. let me repeat that.. ONE big off the bench.

Last year, we had Big Baby, Green, and Delonte West. This year, we have..... Stiemsma and Pietrus?

Again, the bench production is so absolutely terrible without Ray, even with him it's not very good.