Worst case draft scenario

[arambone]

Even if Moe Harkless or Quincy Miller are best player available when the Celtics are on the clock, it may not quite make sense to draft them, unless Pierce announces a shocking retirement.

With Pierce entrenched as starter, and Jeff Green (and possibly Pietrus and Sasha) apparently there for the taking, drafting yet another small forward probably won't be the best short-term improvement for the team.

Small forward is perhaps the easiest position to fill late in the draft, so it could be addressed in future years when Pierce's and Green's time in Boston runs it's course.

Drafting a center seems very likely, whether it's Festus Ezeli or Fab Melo. Centers always rise as the draft approaches, and both of these guys look like upgrades over J O'Neal in their rookie year, with upside.

With the other first rounder, much would depend on who gets picked in the top 20. A power forward would be ideal, because this draft is deeper than most and flush with big men.

But depending on how the first 20 picks go, their may not be a PF among the 3-5 best players available. This draft can and should be a major event in the rebuilding (on the fly) of the Celtics, and reaching for a 4 might not be the best advised move.

In the worst case scenario, Moultrie, Harkless, QMiller, and Terrence Ross could all be gone by pick 21, along with all the higher ranked players like Rivers, Leonard, Henson, Zeller, etc.

This worst case scenario would leave M Teague, Jeff Taylor, Evan Fournier, Tony Wroten, Dion Waiters, Royce White, Doron Lamb, Andrew Nicholson, and Ezeli and Melo as best players available.

If drafting Ezeli or Melo with one pick is a given, who among the other players listed above would make the most sense in this worst case scenario?

I'm eager to hear your thoughts.

At this point, I think I would go with Tony Wroten. He just turned 19 last week, stands 6'6.5" in shoes at 206 pounds, and could still be growing. His wingspan as of now is 6'8". He's a poor outside and FT shooter right now, but his athleticism is right there with Rondo and Bradley. His defensive potential is off the charts, as is his long term potential as a point guard. While Wroten duplicates much of what Rondo and Bradley already bring to the table (athleticism, defense, toughness, transition and penetration scoring), I get the feeling that Wroten could also play some minutes at small forward.

Tony Allen can play and defend the small forward position, and he is an inch or two shorter than Wroten, and only 7 pounds heavier. Allen has a slightly longer wingspan (unless Wroten has grown since last measurement) at 6'9" compared to Wroten's 6'8".

But Wroten has a very sturdy frame that is nowhere near done filling out. Wroten could easily come into training camp next year at Tony Allen's weight of of 213, while still being exceptionally fast for a point guard and shooting guard.

Wroten should be able to defend smaller 3s, and Pierce, Green, and possibly Pietrus would be there to defend the bigger 3s.


Wroten's youth, potential, freakish athleticism, and apparent 3 position versatility makes him my choice over the other available players in this worst case scenario.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77KHufejD1Y

Who would you take in this worst case scenario, and why?

[dtrader]

I dont follow college ball, but I'm not too sold on Wroten if that mix shows his capabilities.  From what I saw, he's only an average passer for a guard, and seems to have only average athleticism as well.  To me a "freakish athlete" would be someone who at 6'6" plays above the rim, finishing a large % of his drives with emphatic dunks in traffic.  Through that whole mix, he only gets above the rim 1 time, and its for a completely uncontested 2 handed dunk that a lot of 6' tall guys would routinely pull off.

I'm hoping that this year ends up like last year, with a lot of surprise picks coming from overseas, further stacking the draft, and pushing players like Quincy Miller and Myers Leonard to us.  I guess instead of the worst case, I'm looking for a draft miracle lol

[clover]

Even if Moe Harkless or Quincy Miller are best player available when the Celtics are on the clock, it may not quite make sense to draft them, unless Pierce announces a shocking retirement.

With Pierce entrenched as starter, and Jeff Green (and possibly Pietrus and Sasha) apparently there for the taking, drafting yet another small forward probably won't be the best short-term improvement for the team.

Small forward is perhaps the easiest position to fill late in the draft, so it could be addressed in future years when Pierce's and Green's time in Boston runs it's course.

Drafting a center seems very likely, whether it's Festus Ezeli or Fab Melo. Centers always rise as the draft approaches, and both of these guys look like upgrades over J O'Neal in their rookie year, with upside.

With the other first rounder, much would depend on who gets picked in the top 20. A power forward would be ideal, because this draft is deeper than most and flush with big men.

But depending on how the first 20 picks go, their may not be a PF among the 3-5 best players available. This draft can and should be a major event in the rebuilding (on the fly) of the Celtics, and reaching for a 4 might not be the best advised move.

In the worst case scenario, Moultrie, Harkless, QMiller, and Terrence Ross could all be gone by pick 21, along with all the higher ranked players like Rivers, Leonard, Henson, Zeller, etc.

This worst case scenario would leave M Teague, Jeff Taylor, Evan Fournier, Tony Wroten, Dion Waiters, Royce White, Doron Lamb, Andrew Nicholson, and Ezeli and Melo as best players available.

If drafting Ezeli or Melo with one pick is a given, who among the other players listed above would make the most sense in this worst case scenario?

I'm eager to hear your thoughts.

At this point, I think I would go with Tony Wroten. He just turned 19 last week, stands 6'6.5" in shoes at 206 pounds, and could still be growing. His wingspan as of now is 6'8". He's a poor outside and FT shooter right now, but his athleticism is right there with Rondo and Bradley. His defensive potential is off the charts, as is his long term potential as a point guard. While Wroten duplicates much of what Rondo and Bradley already bring to the table (athleticism, defense, toughness, transition and penetration scoring), I get the feeling that Wroten could also play some minutes at small forward.

Tony Allen can play and defend the small forward position, and he is an inch or two shorter than Wroten, and only 7 pounds heavier. Allen has a slightly longer wingspan (unless Wroten has grown since last measurement) at 6'9" compared to Wroten's 6'8".

But Wroten has a very sturdy frame that is nowhere near done filling out. Wroten could easily come into training camp next year at Tony Allen's weight of of 213, while still being exceptionally fast for a point guard and shooting guard.

Wroten should be able to defend smaller 3s, and Pierce, Green, and possibly Pietrus would be there to defend the bigger 3s.


Wroten's youth, potential, freakish athleticism, and apparent 3 position versatility makes him my choice over the other available players in this worst case scenario.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77KHufejD1Y

Who would you take in this worst case scenario, and why?

I like Fournier and I'm not sure I see your logic re: the 3.  Yes, Danny may still be more sold on Jeff Green than I am, so he may want a year to see if he can make that work.  But to me the perfect situation is to have a high-potential Pierce replacement come in at age 19 or 20 and play a year behind Pierce.  If Ezeli and Melo are the best bigs available, I suppose Danny could take a chance on one of them, but I think he's got access to similar enough guys in Williams, Hollins and even Stiemer.

The better situation IMO would be to move one of those picks up high enough to bag Leonard or Moultrie.  Then even your worse-case scenario has good enough wings left for the 2nd pick.

[TA9]

I dont follow college ball, but I'm not too sold on Wroten if that mix shows his capabilities.  From what I saw, he's only an average passer for a guard, and seems to have only average athleticism as well.  To me a "freakish athlete" would be someone who at 6'6" plays above the rim, finishing a large % of his drives with emphatic dunks in traffic.  Through that whole mix, he only gets above the rim 1 time, and its for a completely uncontested 2 handed dunk that a lot of 6' tall guys would routinely pull off.

I'm hoping that this year ends up like last year, with a lot of surprise picks coming from overseas, further stacking the draft, and pushing players like Quincy Miller and Myers Leonard to us.  I guess instead of the worst case, I'm looking for a draft miracle lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bySoJ1F5lXE
Trust me Tony is athletic. And i agree that highlight reel showing his passes etc, is some bull****.
I like Tony as a prospect, but i just dont know how good his 3 point shot is.

[arambone]

http://swishscout.com/?page_id=3721

That's a more complete scouting report, with videos breaking down each area of Wroten's game. It's true that he's not as high a flyer as Bradley or John Wall, but he's got a great combination of length, strength, toughness, quickness, instincts, and ball handling. He got to the free throw line 7.5 times per game, so he's tough as nails like Pierce.

If you're interested in scouting some of these prospects, I've found espn3 to be a great resource. There are a lot of games on there in the replay section, and you can skip commercials and stuff.

I'm also hoping for a draft miracle, but there aren't any super Euros this year. Fournier comes closest, but doesn't project as a good NBA defender.

The miracle I'm hoping for is that Tony Mitchell declares at the last minute, since we still haven't heard anything from his mouth, only rumors that he's definitely going back to school. Nothing definitive about that.

Clover, Pierce is on the books for two more years, but regardless, in this worst case scenario, Harkless and Miller would be unavailable anyway.

I also like Fournier, and I love his swagger, but defensively I don't think he's going to cut it. The good news is he's only 19, like Wroten. If Fournier beefs up, maybe he'll be a decent enough defender at 3.

If Leonard, Moultrie, or Hanson drop to the late teens, hopefully we could find a cheap trade with some team looking for a point guard, since two or three of Teague, Wroten, and combo-guard Waiters could be there at 21.

I'd gladly trade the 2nd rounder to get any of Leonard, Moultrie, Hanson, Harkless, or QMiller. If there are any surprises like Teague, Waiters, Wroten, or Fournier going top 20 though, one of those guys will drop to 21 anyway.

Hopefully we see another prospect like Mitchell or somebody come out, which would make the worst case scenario much better.