Celtics could be dominant next season while rebuilding

[ScoobyDoo]

Think about it -

The draft:

* 1st Round - We'll have two decent draft picks that we could either use for two players or package to move up for one higher pick to land a semi-blue chipper in the 15-16 range. Great position.

* Second Round - We might end up with two picks that could be solid specialty role players - think Leon Powe, Big baby types. 

** We add these draft picks to what I think is an already nice young crop of young players in Stiemsma, Triple J, E'Tuan Moore & Bradley - a very nice young group of players.

Re-signing our own players:

* Roughly $37 Million coming off the books this year.

* We could manage that between trying to re-sign KG and Ray for the right money on one year deals & re-signing guys like Jeff Green, Bass, Pietrus to 2-3 year deals at the right money.

* Depending on how we're able to mange this money, we might still be able to sign one other significant player - I'm thinking a starting Center.

* Or at worst we could use our mid level to sign a guy like Aaron Gray, give us a little more beef in the paint.

There ares all kinds of ways this could go: more draft picks we keep and less guys we re-sign, etc. But the bottom line to me is if it's managed correctly, we could end up being very, very dominant next season.

For example, how much better, tougher would this current team be with Jeff Green, Aaron Gray and Wilcox on it?

KG's current $21 Mil next season split as follows:

KG: $12 Mil
Jeff Green: $5.5 Mil
Aaron Gray: $2.5Mil

Ray Allen's current $10 mil next season split as follows:

Ray: $4-5 Mil
Bass: Bump him 2 Mil to keep him
Pietrus: Bump him $2 mil to keep him

Add some really good young rookies to continue rebuilding...

A Very, very good position we are in. I really don't think KG will decline that much from this year to next and if we get deeper next season and can limit his minutes more, he could be playing all year like he's currently playing now. If Green can come back strong to spell Pierce more, the same can be said of Pierce...

So, how good would the following be?

KG / Aaron Gray / Stiemsma
Bass / Wilcox / Triple J
Pierce / Jeff Green / Marquis
Pietrus / Ray / Moore
Rondo / Bradley / Dooling

You probably end up cutting some combination of Dooling, Marquis, Wilcox or Moore to make room for 2-3 rookies that are worth it long term. 
     

[pearljammer10]

I dont see how that consists us as dominant... Thats just the same team as this year, only one year older. Doc wont play rookies so they wont be effective, and JJJ and Moore are a few years away from cracking a rotation let alone being major rotation players for a contender. Steamer can be a servicable big man, and I would rather have him be our second string center over a dud like Gray anyway. I think we would be lucky to get Green on a mid level deal like that.


My guesses to what each player would be looking for contractwise would be (if we wanted to bring back the same team as last year...)

Garnett: 12
Allen: 7
Green: 7
Bass: (Will be able to make much more than his option, i bet he could get 7 from another team... says we give him 6)
Peitrus:  3
Wilcox: 2.5

thats 37.5 million right there...

[arambone]

More like 3-4 rookies. In a draft this deep, our second rounder(s) will most likely merit roster spots.

Nice post though, a lot of grounds for optimism.

I'm not sure I see room for both Pietrus and Green, unless Pietrus comes back cheap.

If KG doesn't come back though, this re-building is going to be a lot more rebuilding-like.

And we went from looking at two mid-late teen picks to two mid-20's picks, over the course of 1.5-2 weeks. That's a big drop in the value of those picks. Fortunately, it's been a blast to watch the C's play, and Bradley's increase in value has made up for the decrease in value of our's and the Clips first rounders.

I wouldn't trade Bradley for any picks but #1 or #2. That's a major increase in value to the Celtics.

If one or both of the C's picks are in the mid-20s, one possible benefit might be making it easier for Danny to draft a project center like Fab or Festus. Roy Hibbert was considered a project of a center when he was drafted, and now he's looking like he might get close to a max contract.

Exciting times to follow the C's.

[slamtheking]

I think dominant is a stretch but they could be a second-tier contender based on several factors:
- Good health for the roster for the whole season, particularly in the playoffs.
- The addition of a good center that can rebound, defend and has good enough hands to handle Rondo's passes and finish around the basket.
- Ray Allen not being the starting SG.  I'm not advocating Avery be the starter or that Ray not be brought back but we need someone younger and more athletic to start the game off.  
- The further development of Avery, Steimsma, JJJ and Moore to be rotation quality players.  I'm not advocating JJJ and Moore necessarily have to get time next year but in the event they do, they need to produce like a quality player.
- For cap reasons, resigning our good FA players for another year.  No top quality FA's this offseason to (realistically) go after.  don't worry about the cap until next year.  I'd try for KG, Steimsma, Green, Pietrus and Bass.  I'd pass on Ray in favor of Pietrus if Pie is healthy because Pie is the better defender and can hit outside jumpers.  Ray is down to being a top shooter (on a good day) and would cost a lot more.  I thought Wilcox did well until his medical problem but I think I saw something that says we can't resign someone we waived to a 1-year deal.
- Unless we luck into an absolute stud with the picks in this draft, have a deep enough team that doesn't rely on the rookies playing.

AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- PLAY FOCUSSED BASKETBALL AND TRY TO WIN AS MANY GAMES AS POSSIBLE!!  not just for homecourt in the playoffs but I'm a firm believer that teams that try to win as many games as possible during the season learn how to win the tough games so that when they get to the playoffs, they know what works and what doesn't to get the win.

[Who]

Need to get a better big man help alongside KG to be a dominant squad.

Preferably someone who can replace Bass in the starting lineup and allow Bass to move back to the bench.

[LooseCannon]

KG's current $21 Mil next season split as follows:

KG: $12 Mil
Jeff Green: $5.5 Mil
Aaron Gray: $2.5Mil

Ray Allen's current $10 mil next season split as follows:

Ray: $4-5 Mil
Bass: Bump him 2 Mil to keep him
Pietrus: Bump him $2 mil to keep him

You don't just take the salary of an expiring contract and split it up.  If Bass takes his player option, Ray Allen and Jeff Green get about $5m each, and KG gets about $12m, with cap holds for the first round picks, that probably brings the Celtics over the cap.  If Bass doesn't exercise his option and gets resigned for more, then the Celtics are merely a bit more over the cap.  From there, the Celtics could split the full MLE between Pietrus and Gray.  You're kind of lucky that it fits.

[arambone]

"If Bass takes his player option, Ray Allen and Jeff Green get about $5m each"

You're dreaming on all 3 counts.

[CFAN38]

I agree that dominant is a stretch and your use of the cap isn't correct. However i do agree that with the recent emergence of Avery and a healthy Green the Cs could be a tough middle of the pack playoff team, with the potential to surprise.

Say the Cs trade both first and trade up for a big, ill say T Zeller.

2nd round we get Jae Crowder, D Green, or Darius Miller

Then they resign KG,Ray,Bass,J Green, and Steimsma

Roster would potentially be

C    KG
PF   Bass
SF   Pierce
SG   Ray
PG   Rondo
6th  Avery
7th  J Green
8th  T Zeller
9th  Steimsma
10th Crowder
11th Moore
12th ...

When healthy the minutes could look like this. This roster would allow the big 3 to take nights off while younger players pick up minutes.

Rondo could play  35 min a game
Ray could play  25 min a game
Pierce     30 min
Bass       30 min
KG         25 min
Avery      30 min
Green      20 min
Zeller      5 min

rebounding would still be an issue but this could be a very solid team, as long as avery develops further, green returns to his previous form and the big 3 dont drop off alot from this season (added rest may help this).

[ManUp]

You exposed yourself as a Celtics optomist and homer (nothing wrong with being either) when you called Johnson and Moore a part of the Celtics "very nice group of young players". As far as nice truly young players (24 and under) go Bradley is it for us. Whether or not Johnson and Moore have a future in the league has yet to be determined. Also, a rookie being able to play for Doc in year one is highly unlikely. I slimpy don't think Doc is capable of developing a group of young players while dominating in the w/l columns.

[Kane3387]

I believe so. Assuming KG comes back and can play Center like this season, Rondo and Pierce come back and play at least how they have this season, and guys like AB improve.

My reasoning is to begin with you have two picks to begin with. One of those guys hopefully can contribute next season. They can be traded, etc also to get a contributing player. Also you have cap space to bring in players whether it's free agency, trade, or even amnesty.

If we win on bids in Amnesty then we might be able to get some very cheap role and bench players who can play.

Brendan Haywood, Andre Blatche (ill give him a chance for 1.5 mill a year), Villanueva/Ben Gordon, Corey Maggette, and others could be available for what could amount to veteran minimum contracts. After all Billups was picked up by the Clippers for two million dollars.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/amnesty-2012-revisiting-the-provision

I think we have a lot of opportunity to be a better team next year then we are this year. This means we can still compete and possibly contend again.

[manl_lui]

sounds like the Patriots :-p, getting better while rebuilding

[Mr October]

For the first half of the season, I thought this would be the last stand for this team (lead by KG). However the resurgence has made me a believer.

The C's could easily resign their own, try to get a player or 2 in the draft, and get another quality big with the MLE. That sounds like a 50 win team or so - especially if the young generation gets summer camps and training camps.

I like it.

The center piece is KG though. If he retires or changes teams, its full rebuild time.

[celtic -_- pride]

next years fate is centered around the draft in my opinion. depends what direction we plan to go and whether jeff green can play again

[manl_lui]

actually if we can actually model ourselves like the Spurs, I actually do not mind, draft players and re-sign our own players. The Spurs kept their big 3 while still playing well. I think we could too not to mention KG will train you if you listen, and a great shooter in Ray Allen

[celtic -_- pride]

actually if we can actually model ourselves like the Spurs, I actually do not mind, draft players and re-sign our own players. The Spurs kept their big 3 while still playing well. I think we could too not to mention KG will train you if you listen, and a great shooter in Ray Allen

spurs actually put faith in their young players though... i guess we can say bradley was handled right but i always thought it was a matter of getting more playing time in real games.