How far can Sullinger slip?

[Chris]

So, he had a pretty disappointing showing in the final 4, he has been really sliding all season, as scouts pick him apart, and he still has the combine coming up, where he could measure smaller than scouts hope and fall even further. 

With teams generally falling in love with longer, more athletic players in workouts, could Sullinger fall into the C's lap (especially if the C's end up dropping to the 7th or 8th spot in the playoffs, and therefore a pick in the teens)?

I know he is not exciting, but I have a hard time finding a better fit next to a guy like KG than Sullinger.  He can line up at PF next to KG at center, but Sullinger will be able to bang down low against some of the stronger centers, while KG can handle some of the longer quicker PFs.

Not only could it extend KG's effectiveness, but playing with KG could help Sullinger build back some of the value he had last year, when he was in the running for the number 1 overall pick, before he withdrew from the draft.  Given where the C's are as an organization, that would be a very good thing.  Yeah, they would love to get a building block for the future, but those guys are hard to come by.  And if you can get a guy like Sullinger, build his value over a couple years, and then flip him, then it could really help to jumpstart the reloading process.

[Eja117]

Baby minus the attitude, plus some talent? I'd be ecstatic.

[Who]

I can't see him dropping out of the top ten and would be very surprised if he fell out of the top 7/8.

[letsgoblue86]

Has he even declared yet?

[saltlover]

He declared today.  We're still not getting him, unless perhaps he gets injured during draft workouts, and/or we get hammered during our upcoming stretch of games and drop low enough in the draft.

[fairweatherfan]

I can't see him dropping out of the top ten and would be very surprised if he fell out of the top 7/8.

I agree - I'd love him to fall to our level but I doubt it.  Like Austin Rivers he was probably overrated last year and underrated this year, and the GMs will probably split the difference and take him late lotto.

The real benefit of Sullinger in the draft is the same as all the other elite guys - he pushes what would be late lotto picks in other drafts down to our level.

[Galeto]

I doubt he falls out of the top ten.  Maybe if team after team goes for higher upside he might fall far but he's been too productive and too highly thought of going back to high school that it seems unlikely.  He's unlikely to be a star but you know he's going to provide rebounding and possesses the high basketball IQ to fit into a team structure. 

It is intriguing to see what a team does if Sullinger and Perry Jones are the two highest rated players left at say the 8th spot.  It's production versus underwhelming production; substandard athleticism versus above-average or better athleticism.  It's also skill versus skill and the case of one player, Sullinger, who was a featured part of a well-run team versus another player, Jones, who would inexplicably not touch the ball for long stretches.

[CFAN38]

draft.net has Sullinger falling to 14. Draftexpress has him at 6th. If he falls outside of the top 10 the Cs really need to inquire if 21+22+JJJ is enough to move up and get him. I cant see a situation short of Sullinger ballooning to 300+ lbs where he doesn't succeed in the NBA. In the playoffs right now we have BBD, E Brand, D Blair,P Milsap and carlos boozer all playing in productive roles with similar physical traits to Sullinger.

My best case for next season would be the following. Sullinger and Green greatly help the Cs rebounding. (even with Green being a below average rebounder)

Rondo
Bradley
PP
Sullinger
KG
6th Ray
7th J Green
8th Steimsma
fill the rest
   

[mctyson]

The Celtics getting Sullinger would be the steal of the Draft.  He was a lottery pick after his freshman season.

[clover]

draft.net has Sullinger falling to 14. Draftexpress has him at 6th. If he falls outside of the top 10 the Cs really need to inquire if 21+22+JJJ is enough to move up and get him. I cant see a situation short of Sullinger ballooning to 300+ lbs where he doesn't succeed in the NBA. In the playoffs right now we have BBD, E Brand, D Blair,P Milsap and carlos boozer all playing in productive roles with similar physical traits to Sullinger.

My best case for next season would be the following. Sullinger and Green greatly help the Cs rebounding. (even with Green being a below average rebounder)

Rondo
Bradley
PP
Sullinger
KG
6th Ray
7th J Green
8th Steimsma
fill the rest
   

Though not perfect, I think the comparison with Baby is in some aspects fair--and I certainly wouldn't want Danny to go using three first round picks, as you suggest, for Baby.

Both are likely to be a big help against poor-to-above-average teams.  The problem is the C's need to reload with players that can be difference makers against the best competition, and Danny shouldn't use three of his better assets on someone who comes up short, figuratively and literally, in that respect.

[Moranis]

Sullinger will be a superb professional and frankly is very similar to Thomas Robinson, who most people are in love with (Sully struggles a bit more with the really big guys than Robinson but otherwise they have very similar games).  If he fell out of the lottery, the Celtics should move up for him as he has long time starter written all over him.  I don't think he will be an all star (though if he continues to improve his outside shooting might get there), but he should be in the league for a very long time and can contribute, which means at outside of the lottery you are doing really good with a guy like Sullinger. 

[CFAN38]

Though not perfect, I think the comparison with Baby is in some aspects fair--and I certainly wouldn't want Danny to go using three first round picks, as you suggest, for Baby.

Both are likely to be a big help against poor-to-above-average teams.  The problem is the C's need to reload with players that can be difference makers against the best competition, and Danny shouldn't use three of his better assets on someone who comes up short, figuratively and literally, in that respect.

I used the Sullinger to BBD comparison as part of a larger comparison. I compared Sullinger to BBD, Blair, Boozer, Milsap, and Brand. All off these guys are NBA big men who play below the rim. These below the rim bigs are never the "sexy pick" but they are highly productive.

If he was acquired by the Cs and given Bass's minutes i would fully expect Sullinger to average 12-14pts a game and 8-9 rebounds as a rookie. With the potential to be a 20pt 10rb a game guy in his prime.

[theswitch]

Edit: nevermind, didn't see the date.

[Roy H.]

If he was acquired by the Cs and given Bass's minutes i would fully expect Sullinger to average 12-14pts a game and 8-9 rebounds as a rookie.

That's probably a little ambitious.  In the past 10 seasons, only six rookies have averaged 12 points and 8 rebounds: Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire, Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins, and Brook Lopez.  Two of those guys averaged at least 14 and 9 (Griffin and Okafor).

Among this year's rookie class (admittedly a weak one), only one player averaged 13.0+ points (Kyrie Irving), and none averaged 8.0+ rebounds.

[clover]

Sullinger will be a superb professional and frankly is very similar to Thomas Robinson, who most people are in love with (Sully struggles a bit more with the really big guys than Robinson but otherwise they have very similar games).  If he fell out of the lottery, the Celtics should move up for him as he has long time starter written all over him.  I don't think he will be an all star (though if he continues to improve his outside shooting might get there), but he should be in the league for a very long time and can contribute, which means at outside of the lottery you are doing really good with a guy like Sullinger. 

I agree, a big bargain there--but a disaster to use three 1sts on!