You are Robert Swift, if you could do it over, would you still go pro right away

[Moranis]

Robert Swift was the 12th pick in the draft right out of high school.  He played in 5 seasons in the NBA making 11.47 million dollars (he currently plays for the Tokyo Apache), but was a gigantic bust by most accounts playing just 97 games total (and he missed an entire year).  So you are Robert Swift, you can go back in time, do you still go pro right out of high school or do you go to USC instead (where he was going to go).  Obviously if you go to college there is no guarantee you will even be drafted and you might actually get hurt in college, but you also might improve your skills, get drafted higher and perhaps the time in college develops your body better and you don't get hurt as much.  So what do you do?

This would obviously apply to anyone in a similar position, who in retrospect may have come out too early, but since Ainge seemingly really like Swift, I thought of him.

[bfrombleacher]

There's a lot of money at stake.

[Celtics4ever]

There are plenty of 4 year guys who were busts too.

[mctyson]

These types of questions are hard to answer.  There are too many variables: where you get drafted, health, system, etc...I know it is a hot button topic now with the NCAA trying to persuade the NBA to change the "1-and-done" rules.

In Swift's case, I think back to something Doc said recently.  He said something like "if you can play in the league, you'll show that, whether you are 18 or 22."  I agree with him.  Swift clearly couldn't play in the league and I don't think 4 years of college ball would have helped him.  In fact, he probably made a lot more money by coming out early.  I disagree with people who think that you automatically ruin your lottery chances by going to school - the physical potential that someone like Swift has does not disappear by going to college.  But there is something to be said for going to school and playing against better competition and showing your flaws, decreasing your "upside."

I hope the NBA removes the restriction against 17 and 18 year-olds entering the draft.  As we have seen with Bradley and Stiemer, the D-league works.  It is starting to become a legitimate NBA version of AAA baseball.  I would be fine with rules like they have in baseball, actually.  I think if you get drafted out of high school in baseball but instead opt for college, you have to stay for 3 years before you re-enter the draft.  

[Who]

Didn't Robert Swift have very serious injury problems? Weren't they the main reason his pro career didn't turn out as hoped? All that lost athleticism?

I don't see how going to college changes any of that. So go pro and take the money.

[hwangjini_1]

Didn't Robert Swift have very serious injury problems? Weren't they the main reason his pro career didn't turn out as hoped? All that lost athleticism?

I don't see how going to college changes any of that. So go pro and take the money.

i believe it was the injuries that did him in.

in his second, and best, year he played 47 games, and in 21 minutes he averaged....

6.4 points
5.6 rbs
1.2 blocks

averaged out to 36 minutes and the numbers become

11 points
9.6 rbs
2 blocks.

the trouble was he could never average 36 minutes due to injuries.

while not HOF material, swift looked to be a good nba center. but instead, he joins oden and bowies as a member of the "never was" club.

[rickyfan3.0...]

I bet if he went to college he would have been exposed BEFORE he got an NBA contract and would not have made as much money.

[the_Bird]

Didn't Robert Swift have very serious injury problems? Weren't they the main reason his pro career didn't turn out as hoped? All that lost athleticism?

I don't see how going to college changes any of that. So go pro and take the money.

I remember Swift playing pretty [dang] well before all of his injuries caught up with him.  If he gets hurt in college, well, he's selling insurance right about now.  OK, well, maybe he's selling insurance anyway, but he's got a lot of $$ in the bank he wouldn't have had otherwise.

There are plenty of players who came out too soon, or never went to college at all, and it hurt them.  Gerald Green is one that comes to mind, although it's equally possible that his flaws wouldn't have been fixed with a few years of school - they just would have been better-exposed.  Robert Swift, though, I don't see how he would have benefited from going to college.

Hell, he still can go to college now - he just can't play ball (but he also won't have to take out any student loans!)

[Moranis]

Didn't Robert Swift have very serious injury problems? Weren't they the main reason his pro career didn't turn out as hoped? All that lost athleticism?

I don't see how going to college changes any of that. So go pro and take the money.

Perhaps in college where there are less games, less minutes, and less impact physically (especially to big men), he could have grown into his body and not gotten hurt (at least at the rate he did).  Sure maybe he gets hurt anyway, but maybe college is what he needed to avoid getting hurt like he did without college.

Maybe after just 1 year at USC, he enters the draft and is a top 5 pick (rather than 12th) and then even if he still got hurt, he would have made a lot more money.  

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I think it's hard to pass that "guaranteed money". If NBA scouts think you're ready for the Pro's while you're in high school, and every mock draft has you in the lottery, I'd say yes.

Swift was always injured. So I can't really judge him off of that. Im not saying he's an all star player but he could have probably been a productive center, a "fantasy basketball owners always wants to pick him in the mid rounds" kind of guy. But the injuries prevented him to maybe reach that ceiling.

[BballTim]

Didn't Robert Swift have very serious injury problems? Weren't they the main reason his pro career didn't turn out as hoped? All that lost athleticism?

I don't see how going to college changes any of that. So go pro and take the money.

Perhaps in college where there are less games, less minutes, and less impact physically (especially to big men), he could have grown into his body and not gotten hurt (at least at the rate he did).  Sure maybe he gets hurt anyway, but maybe college is what he needed to avoid getting hurt like he did without college.

Maybe after just 1 year at USC, he enters the draft and is a top 5 pick (rather than 12th) and then even if he still got hurt, he would have made a lot more money.  

  Avery Bradley was a top 2-3 prospect after high school and was drafted in the 20s after a year of college. There's no way of knowing if his position would have gone up or down after a year of college, and his career went south because of injuries, not because he came out too early.

[pearljammer10]

Go on take the money and run baby.

[Roy H.]

Yeah, take the money.

[Moranis]

Didn't Robert Swift have very serious injury problems? Weren't they the main reason his pro career didn't turn out as hoped? All that lost athleticism?

I don't see how going to college changes any of that. So go pro and take the money.

Perhaps in college where there are less games, less minutes, and less impact physically (especially to big men), he could have grown into his body and not gotten hurt (at least at the rate he did).  Sure maybe he gets hurt anyway, but maybe college is what he needed to avoid getting hurt like he did without college.

Maybe after just 1 year at USC, he enters the draft and is a top 5 pick (rather than 12th) and then even if he still got hurt, he would have made a lot more money.  

  Avery Bradley was a top 2-3 prospect after high school and was drafted in the 20s after a year of college. There's no way of knowing if his position would have gone up or down after a year of college, and his career went south because of injuries, not because he came out too early.

Sure it went south because of injuries, but maybe instead of 12th he is 1st or 2nd after just one year of college ball.  He would have then made a lot more money even if he still got hurt at a similar rate in the NBA.  It isn't like Swift was the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft, he could have easily improved his draft status after just one year of college (nbadraft.net had him projected to boston at 15 so it isn't like he unexpectedly fell to 12).  If he had a monster year at USC, he might have gone 1 instead of Bogut the next year (just as an example).  Or he could have been hurt and dropped to the 20's or even out of the 1st round.  Who knows, but that is the risk.  

He now knows he got picked 12th, got hurt all the time, and did not get a second contract in the NBA.  Perhaps going to school for even a year in retrospect might have been a more lucrative option for him.

[BballTim]

Didn't Robert Swift have very serious injury problems? Weren't they the main reason his pro career didn't turn out as hoped? All that lost athleticism?

I don't see how going to college changes any of that. So go pro and take the money.

Perhaps in college where there are less games, less minutes, and less impact physically (especially to big men), he could have grown into his body and not gotten hurt (at least at the rate he did).  Sure maybe he gets hurt anyway, but maybe college is what he needed to avoid getting hurt like he did without college.

Maybe after just 1 year at USC, he enters the draft and is a top 5 pick (rather than 12th) and then even if he still got hurt, he would have made a lot more money.  

  Avery Bradley was a top 2-3 prospect after high school and was drafted in the 20s after a year of college. There's no way of knowing if his position would have gone up or down after a year of college, and his career went south because of injuries, not because he came out too early.

Sure it went south because of injuries, but maybe instead of 12th he is 1st or 2nd after just one year of college ball.  He would have then made a lot more money even if he still got hurt at a similar rate in the NBA.  It isn't like Swift was the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft, he could have easily improved his draft status after just one year of college.  If he had a monster year at USC, he might have gone 1 instead of Bogut the next year (just as an example).  Or he could have been hurt and dropped to the 20's.  Who knows, but that is the risk.  He now knows he got picked 12th, got hurt all the time, and did not get a second contract in the NBA.  Perhaps going to school for even a year in retrospect might have been a more lucrative option for him.

  What if he'd gotten injured in college before he signed that guaranteed deal? What if he didn't have a monster freshman year at USC? He made $12M, I don't know that he'd gamble that on a bet where he could end up with a lot less.