First post here, long time reader. Here is my analysis. It's long but I've been thinking about it for a few months now so best to get it down on paper.
I think Ray Allen is going to leave regardless of the money the Cs offer him, probably for Chicago. They need a SG and he knows and loves Tibbs. The only reason for him to stay in Boston is to not have to move his family away from their comfort zone. For a good chance at 1-2 more championships I bet Ray makes the flights.
My opinion is that the only way to keep the Celtics competitive during a rebuild is to resign KG. He makes people responsible in the locker room, anchors the defense and is playing like a man possessed lately. He's a legit center in this league and less than 5 guys at the center position can really give him problems in the paint. Think Howard, Bynum, Jordan, and a couple of other young bucks depending on the night.
So here is my plan. Resign KG. He's our culture and without him we're just not the same championship team of the last 5 years. I'm hearing 10 million from some people. I think he'd sign for 8 but I'd give him 10 because I love him and he's that important to who the Celtics are as a team
So that leaves us with
PG - Rondo
SG -
SF - Pierce
PF -
C - Garnett
Forget Eric Gordon. He wants a max contract and he's 100% not worth it. Injury prone and he's not a top player, yet. I heard Charles Barkley say once that there are 5 guys in the league that deserve a max contract. I tend to agree. Gordon just isn't on that level.
OJ Mayo isn't on my list. I think he has a bad attitude and don't want to enter anything like that into the Celtics rebuild. We will already have rookies and young talent already.
Before we talk about FAs I want to talk about Jeff Green. He's going to sign with us. We want him. I want him to start at SG when Ray walks. He's a little tall but his game is so much like a 2-guard it's not even funny. I'm okay giving up a little bit of speed to guys like D-wade if Green can learn to rebound better. 3 rebounds per night isn't going to cut it unless he plays the SG role and then it's scraping by. Pierce is pulling down 5 a night this season and he's over the hill. Ray pulls 3 per night this season but the advantage of Green at the SG is his height on the defensive end.
My roster is now:
PG - Rondo
SG - Green
SF - Pierce
PF -
C - Garnett
I think having Garnett as a hybrid PF/C means we can load up on tall guys so we should draft tall guys. I want Sullinger and/or Drummond. If we have to trade up for those guys then get it done Danny. We can go to FA or use our 2nd rounder to steal a cheap backup PG for Rondo, keep Bradley in the SG backup role and switch him onto opposing PGs for defense.
My options for cheap PGs would be Randy Foye, maybe drafting Maalik Wayns in the 2nd round or splurging on Jason Terry for our 6th man role and backup PG. With Terry playing along side Bradley they could swap who they defend so Terry won't look so bad on that end and he could help us with our shooting slumps in the 4th. He is certainly more expensive but he's my preference.
Roster:
PG - Rondo (Terry)
SG - Green (Bradley)
SF - Pierce (
)
PF - DRAFTEES
C - Garnett
On to the bench. I like Bass. He can stay our starter at PF until we bring the rookies along. At 4 million he's a steal. The options this year for backups for Pierce are slim pickins. I like Gerald Wallace but he's probably too expensive. I'd love Nic Batum but he might be too expensive too. Much as I hate Matt Barnes, he's a good rebounder especially in limited minutes. His toughness is invaluable and hitting outside shots is within his skill set. People have mentioned Alonzo Gee but I'm not too familiar with him. Part of me thinks we should take on the last year of Maggette's contract for a 2013 or 2014 1st rounder. We will have cap space and no good FAs to use it on aside from Garnett.
Roster:
PG - Rondo (Terry)
SG - Green (Bradley)
SF - Pierce (Batum/Barnes/Maggette)
PF - Bass (Draftees)
C - Garnett
So now we have the problem of this season. Tall guys. I think we should draft guys who can play PF and C. Sullinger and Drummond can do both I think. I'd like to trade out Steamer for Omar Asik and keep Ryan Hollins as an insurance policy.
12 active players and 15 on the roster
-Rondo 11M
-Terry 6-8M
-Green 6-8M
-Bradley 1.6M
-Pierce 16M
-Batum(or any defensive minded SF) 5-7M
-Bass 4M
-Garnett 10M
-Asik 4M
+Hollins 2M
+2 Rookies PFs 1.2M/ea
+1 Rookie PG 800K
[And 2 roster spots open]
Taking the highest of all of those contracts you get about $75M which is 12M less than we're paying this year. If Ainge can swing a few deals we can get down below 70M where OKC and CHI are at. 70M is where competitive teams will put their salaries at under the new CBA.
The only other thing I think might be worth trying, and I know this isn't a popular idea, is to amnesty Paul Pierce after this season. 32M over 2 years is near max contract money. With the 2013 draft class being ridiculously stacked it's a very solid option to get young this year in the draft, shed cap space, sign 1-year deals and go for broke in 2013 FA. Rondo has 3 years left on his deal so building around his very reasonable $11M contract is wise. Pair him with Howard or Bynum in FA. Get Green on contract as a wing player and you have an very young, very good team. This would mean not resigning anyone to more than 1 year except possibly Jeff Green.
2013/14 Roster:
PG - Rondo 12M
SG - Ellis 8-10M
SF - Jeff Green 8-10M
PF - Millsap/Jefferson/West/Smith 8-10M
C - Howard/Bynum 18M
That starting lineup could be under the cap and all unrestricted in 2013. We can fill in the bench like Miami and NY did, probably better having a dominant center and point guard. Just looking at the list make me want to amnesty Pierce right now. A 1 year rebuild into that kind of a team is well worth a year of struggle. I'd feel bad for Pierce but at heart I'm a Celtics fan, not a Pierce fan.
I'd like comments on this or any corrects on oversights. I wrote this one up late so I might have blurry-eyed some stuff.
Go Celtics!
