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The plan #2
« on: March 31, 2012, 03:28:03 AM »

Offline nostar

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First post here, long time reader. Here is my analysis. It's long but I've been thinking about it for a few months now so best to get it down on paper.

I think Ray Allen is going to leave regardless of the money the Cs offer him, probably for Chicago. They need a SG and he knows and loves Tibbs. The only reason for him to stay in Boston is to not have to move his family away from their comfort zone. For a good chance at 1-2 more championships I bet Ray makes the flights.

My opinion is that the only way to keep the Celtics competitive during a rebuild is to resign KG. He makes people responsible in the locker room, anchors the defense and is playing like a man possessed lately. He's a legit center in this league and less than 5 guys at the center position can really give him problems in the paint. Think Howard, Bynum, Jordan, and a couple of other young bucks depending on the night.

So here is my plan. Resign KG. He's our culture and without him we're just not the same championship team of the last 5 years. I'm hearing 10 million from some people. I think he'd sign for 8 but I'd give him 10 because I love him and he's that important to who the Celtics are as a team

So that leaves us with

PG - Rondo
SG - ???
SF - Pierce
PF - ???
C - Garnett

Forget Eric Gordon. He wants a max contract and he's 100% not worth it. Injury prone and he's not a top player, yet. I heard Charles Barkley say once that there are 5 guys in the league that deserve a max contract. I tend to agree. Gordon just isn't on that level.

OJ Mayo isn't on my list. I think he has a bad attitude and don't want to enter anything like that into the Celtics rebuild. We will already have rookies and young talent already.

Before we talk about FAs I want to talk about Jeff Green. He's going to sign with us. We want him. I want him to start at SG when Ray walks. He's a little tall but his game is so much like a 2-guard it's not even funny. I'm okay giving up a little bit of speed to guys like D-wade if Green can learn to rebound better. 3 rebounds per night isn't going to cut it unless he plays the SG role and then it's scraping by. Pierce is pulling down 5 a night this season and he's over the hill. Ray pulls 3 per night this season but the advantage of Green at the SG is his height on the defensive end.

My roster is now:

PG - Rondo
SG - Green
SF - Pierce
PF - ???
C - Garnett

I think having Garnett as a hybrid PF/C means we can load up on tall guys so we should draft tall guys. I want Sullinger and/or Drummond. If we have to trade up for those guys then get it done Danny. We can go to FA or use our 2nd rounder to steal a cheap backup PG for Rondo, keep Bradley in the SG backup role and switch him onto opposing PGs for defense.

My options for cheap PGs would be Randy Foye, maybe drafting Maalik Wayns in the 2nd round or splurging on Jason Terry for our 6th man role and backup PG. With Terry playing along side Bradley they could swap who they defend so Terry won't look so bad on that end and he could help us with our shooting slumps in the 4th. He is certainly more expensive but he's my preference.

Roster:

PG - Rondo (Terry)
SG - Green (Bradley)
SF - Pierce ( ??? )
PF - DRAFTEES
C - Garnett

On to the bench. I like Bass. He can stay our starter at PF until we bring the rookies along. At 4 million he's a steal. The options this year for backups for Pierce are slim pickins. I like Gerald Wallace but he's probably too expensive. I'd love Nic Batum but he might be too expensive too. Much as I hate Matt Barnes, he's a good rebounder especially in limited minutes. His toughness is invaluable and hitting outside shots is within his skill set. People have mentioned Alonzo Gee but I'm not too familiar with him. Part of me thinks we should take on the last year of Maggette's contract for a 2013 or 2014 1st rounder. We will have cap space and no good FAs to use it on aside from Garnett.

Roster:

PG - Rondo (Terry)
SG - Green (Bradley)
SF - Pierce (Batum/Barnes/Maggette)
PF - Bass (Draftees)
C - Garnett

So now we have the problem of this season. Tall guys. I think we should draft guys who can play PF and C. Sullinger and Drummond can do both I think. I'd like to trade out Steamer for Omar Asik and keep Ryan Hollins as an insurance policy.

12 active players and 15 on the roster

-Rondo 11M
-Terry 6-8M
-Green 6-8M
-Bradley 1.6M
-Pierce 16M
-Batum(or any defensive minded SF) 5-7M
-Bass 4M
-Garnett 10M
-Asik 4M
+Hollins 2M
+2 Rookies PFs 1.2M/ea
+1 Rookie PG 800K
[And 2 roster spots open]

Taking the highest of all of those contracts you get about $75M which is 12M less than we're paying this year. If Ainge can swing a few deals we can get down below 70M where OKC and CHI are at. 70M is where competitive teams will put their salaries at under the new CBA.

The only other thing I think might be worth trying, and I know this isn't a popular idea, is to amnesty Paul Pierce after this season. 32M over 2 years is near max contract money. With the 2013 draft class being ridiculously stacked it's a very solid option to get young this year in the draft, shed cap space, sign 1-year deals and go for broke in 2013 FA. Rondo has 3 years left on his deal so building around his very reasonable $11M contract is wise. Pair him with Howard or Bynum in FA. Get Green on contract as a wing player and you have an very young, very good team. This would mean not resigning anyone to more than 1 year except possibly Jeff Green.

2013/14 Roster:

PG - Rondo 12M
SG - Ellis 8-10M
SF - Jeff Green 8-10M
PF - Millsap/Jefferson/West/Smith 8-10M
C - Howard/Bynum 18M

That starting lineup could be under the cap and all unrestricted in 2013. We can fill in the bench like Miami and NY did, probably better having a dominant center and point guard. Just looking at the list make me want to amnesty Pierce right now. A 1 year rebuild into that kind of a team is well worth a year of struggle. I'd feel bad for Pierce but at heart I'm a Celtics fan, not a Pierce fan.

I'd like comments on this or any corrects on oversights. I wrote this one up late so I might have blurry-eyed some stuff.

Go Celtics!
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2012, 03:59:07 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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how are you bringin in 75 mil in salary if the salary cap is 58 mil?
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2012, 04:08:46 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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TP for an attempt at realism.  Have to be mindful of the cap, though.  Here's what we're looking at:

Pierce = 16.8 mil
Rondo = 11 mil
Bradley = 1.6 mil
Johnson = 1.1 mil

... That's 30.5 mil right there.

You just gave KG 10 mil (seems about right.  That's more than a 50% paycut for him)

Now we are at 40.5 mil

You just gave Jeff Green 8 mil...

Now we are at 48.5 mil... we have 10 mil left

Brandon Bass actually has a player option next year for 4.2 mil.  Most suspect he'll opt out, because he can get more.  So giving him 4 mil just isn't gonna do.  Bare minimum he's at 5...

You got 5 mil left...

You have two rookies who you said were 1.2 mil each...

Now you have 2.6 million left.

You just priced yourself out of Terry (6-8 mil as you put it).  You just priced yourself out of Batum (5-7 mil as you put it).  You just priced yourself out of Asik (4 mil as you put it).  I'll give you HOllins.

Congrats... you just replaced Ray Allen with Jeff Green and some late 1st round rookies.  Good luck on your playoff run.

FYI... you're better off just re-signing everyone and forgetting about the "cap space" myth.  At the very least you should be able to bring back the same also-ran squad (meaning both KG and Ray), add our two rookies and try to bring in a big man with the MLE (Chris Kaman is a nice pipe dream, but I think he'll command more than the MLE).  Not enough to be a contender, but it's better than nothin.

FYI 2... The two rookies you mentioned (Sullinger and Drummond) are projected to go like 2nd and 6th in the draft.  We're currently projected to be picking 20th and 24th.  Edit:  Sullinger apparently is staying in College?
« Last Edit: March 31, 2012, 04:39:19 AM by LarBrd33 »
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2012, 04:57:31 AM »

Offline guava_wrench

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The plan will be to rebuild. Without the ability to get a top player, we won't be able to attract quality role players at a bargain. Next season will be a tough one. Heck, this season is a tough one already.
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2012, 05:17:51 AM »

Offline jarufu

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I'd settle for Danny making some moves that aren't "Plan C" type moves and 15 guys without dickie tickers!
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2012, 06:18:18 AM »

Offline clover

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I think that's a reasonable 1st draft.

But I doubt Bass is back, don't see Green at the 2, and agree that Pierce's salary, especially combined with Green's, is a bit of a sore thumb.

The big wrinkle is how well KG is playing.  Smaller wrinkles are how well AB and GS are developing.  Next question may be who they land in the draft.  I think he may move up the board, but I want Moultrie.  Rivers falling would change things.   
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2012, 07:01:00 AM »

Offline nostar

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I'm a little mindful of the cap but the NBA's "soft cap" makes it possible to spend over the cap to retain players. Also the MLE can vary, RIP Hamilton was signed with the MLE at 5M. Kaman probably isn't worth more than that and if I remember right Boston is going to be one of the teams who receives the full MLE.

Being mindful of the cap isn't really what competitive NBA teams do. If you look at the salaries of the top teams in the NBA it's obvious that owners are fully willing to pay into the luxury tax to win. It's actually a lot of what the CBA negotiation was about from what I read. The luxury tax "cap" for the 2012/13 season should be pretty close to 70M. For the purposes of this mock up I'm going to assume that is the number we have to stay under.

The Rookies were certainly wishful thinking. I know we won't get Drummond but I think Sullinger is a possibility and I'm pretty sure he's declared already. He's projected going 9th in the mock draft I looked at. It's still possible we make a deal with either Utah or Portland and trade up in the draft. If not there are still talented big men in the draft at our picks. Perry Jones and Jon Henson are projected to go around where our picks are. I did get a little excited reaching for Drummond though. He'd be a total steal.

So we have 30M on the books. If we amnesty Pierce we have 14M that is 44M to work with. If we don't then it's 27.5M

We're allowed to spend over the cap to retain both KG and Bass.

I'm not sure if Green counts but I'd like to sign him long term anyway and he'll come on the lower end of 6-8M if I had to guess. I heard he was traveling with the team even though we waived him. He clearly wants to be here.

Under the Rookie exception we can sign our draftees even if it exceeds the cap.

Also I have heard that Bass absolutely loves Boston. I'm sure he's worth 5 elsewhere but I get the feeling he'll pick up his option for 4. I like his game and I want him to stay but he's not a guy I go out of my way for. Hickson would have been just as good I think and there are about 30 other proficient PFs in the league.

Factoring all that in I still have $ for Terry (or possibly Crawford at a cheaper $5M) and Asik. Replacing Ray with Green isn't a bad thing, we get younger and taller, albeit losing one of the best shooters in NBA history. I think that team makes a good playoff run, probably as deep as our team goes this year.

Resigning who we have and adding 2 rookies gets us pretty much no where. Do KG and Ray sign 1-2 year deals? I wouldn't if I were them. If they don't sign with us then what? I think we need to address a lot of stuff on this team in the off season and if KG/Ray leave then I think Ainge should seriously consider trading or using amnesty on Pierce. If we can keep KG then I don't mind enduring Pierce's deteriorating 20/5/5 stats at 16M a year for 2 more years. Actually I do mind it and I'd rather have a bad team next year and splash in 2013/14 than have a mediocre team for the next 5 years.
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2012, 08:31:55 AM »

Offline jdz101

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Quote from: LarBrd33 on March 31, 2012, 04:08:46 AM
TP for an attempt at realism.  Have to be mindful of the cap, though.  Here's what we're looking at:

Pierce = 16.8 mil
Rondo = 11 mil
Bradley = 1.6 mil
Johnson = 1.1 mil

... That's 30.5 mil right there.

You just gave KG 10 mil (seems about right.  That's more than a 50% paycut for him)

Now we are at 40.5 mil

You just gave Jeff Green 8 mil...

Now we are at 48.5 mil... we have 10 mil left

Brandon Bass actually has a player option next year for 4.2 mil.  Most suspect he'll opt out, because he can get more.  So giving him 4 mil just isn't gonna do.  Bare minimum he's at 5...

You got 5 mil left...

You have two rookies who you said were 1.2 mil each...

Now you have 2.6 million left.

You just priced yourself out of Terry (6-8 mil as you put it).  You just priced yourself out of Batum (5-7 mil as you put it).  You just priced yourself out of Asik (4 mil as you put it).  I'll give you HOllins.

Congrats... you just replaced Ray Allen with Jeff Green and some late 1st round rookies.  Good luck on your playoff run.

FYI... you're better off just re-signing everyone and forgetting about the "cap space" myth.  At the very least you should be able to bring back the same also-ran squad (meaning both KG and Ray), add our two rookies and try to bring in a big man with the MLE (Chris Kaman is a nice pipe dream, but I think he'll command more than the MLE).  Not enough to be a contender, but it's better than nothin.

FYI 2... The two rookies you mentioned (Sullinger and Drummond) are projected to go like 2nd and 6th in the draft.  We're currently projected to be picking 20th and 24th.  Edit:  Sullinger apparently is staying in College?

What about bird rights and rookie exceptions?
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2012, 08:35:37 PM »

Offline nostar

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I have more ideas!

I was reading here this afternoon: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=53066.0
Very interesting read. Looks like the cap will go up 3M and the Luxury cap will go up about 4M. That is a little more flexibility.

Thinking about it a little more I think we should make a push to resign Ray. I wish we would have traded him for a 1st rounder this year. Ainge wanted a young talent + a 1st and teams weren't willing to give that much up for a 36 year old HOFer. If we can get anything from him even in a sign and trade we should do it. Maybe we can steal a  bench player from Chicago. I'm open to retaining Pietrus and Bass next season. I also really like Steisma but I want to keep our options open to upgrading at all of these bench positions. Steisma is great, but Asik is an upgrade. Pietrus is great but Brewer/Batum are upgrades who can play SF too. Bass is good but there are a lot of PFs in the draft and a few that are unrestricted FAs with more of a post game. Maybe picking up Jamison for cheap or Reggie Evans. Those guys change our bench a ton.

I love Rondo, probably more than any other Celtic but I'd trade him this off-season for a couple of 1st rounders and someone. Utah would give up a 1st rounder and Devin Harris for Rondo. Maybe we can talk them into both 1sts. Salaries match pretty close.

I read someone post that PP might be an interesting trade for Houston to consider. McHale is there so there is always a dialogue to be had. I like both Martin and Scola. Maybe PP/JJ for Martin/Scola with a pick incentive from us? Not this year's pick(s) but maybe next. Certainly something to consider. Out on a limb: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=86dxrh3 and we have picks to sweeten what needs sweetening.

We have so much flexibility this off-season and next that I think we should think twice before just consigning ourselves to a rebuild over multiple years.
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2012, 09:48:33 PM »

Offline mctyson

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KG is not signing for 10M, the way he is playing this year he is worth 15

BB is not signing for 4M, he will get twice that

Jeff Green is absolutely not an SG, not even close

nice try
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2012, 10:23:54 PM »

Offline MVP

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Here's my plan for next year:

- Resign KG for 9-10M per (2 years if he wants it)
- Assume Bass opts out and wants a Big Baby like deal > let him walk
- Resign Jeff Green at a contract starting at 6-7M
- Sign Asik at a contract starting at 5M (most he can get in his first year)
- Resign Ray Allen for a 1 year deal around 6-7M
- Resign Stiemsma for his QO, pick up option on Moore
- Fill out rest of roster with picks, minimum level players

Final Roster:
pg: Rajon Rondo - Moore or draft pick
sg: Avery Bradley - Ray Allen
sf: Paul Pierce - Jeff Green
pf: Kevin Garnett - JJJ or draft pick
 c: Omer Asik - Greg Stiemsma
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2012, 11:10:43 PM »

Offline arambone

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I think you're on the right track with that roster, though I see KG getting 12 million or even 15 for next year. Probably 23-25 million for 2 seasons, perhaps.

I'd pay Ray up to 9 million just to not lose him, but he would hopefully agree to 7 or 8 before it got to that point.

The addition of Jeff Green would have made us major title contenders this year, if not favorites at this point.

Adding Green, 1 big FA, and 3-4 draft picks will make this team first rate next season.

No reason to ditch Ray or Garnett just because they are getting older.

The draft picks could also be made with the short-term as much a factor as long-term, if there was a championship to plausibly chase.

3-4 first season contributors is not unrealistic from our next rookie class.
 
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2012, 11:52:19 PM »

Offline More Banners

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I don't really see Ray going anywhere that would be in a position to give him more than the MMLE of $3M, and I give him that to come off the bench for the next couple of years.  Perhaps a third year...call it severance or whatever.

I truly hope KG sticks around for a couple more years.  It's not about market value in this case, but I think both sides would be okay with $10M per for a deal with a partially guaranteed third year.

I love Jeff Green, and am looking forward to him signing an incentive-laden contract for the long term in the $4-7M per range.

Avery Bradley is part of the future.  I'm not sure ETMoore is.

If players yet-to-be-drafted are in the rotation from the beginning next season, we'll all know where we stand.

Rotation:

Rondo/Bradley
Bradley/Ray
Pierce/JGreen
JGreen/Bass
KG/Steimsma

Deep Bench:

JJJ
ETMoore
2 1st rd picks
2 2nd rd picks

So if this is the most likely scenario, with things staying mostly the same and draft picks being signed as usual by Danny, barring major shakeup, there's one roster spot left and a veteran rotation player needed.  Given what's there, the area of greatest potential impact would be to find an impact big man to take some weight off KG's shoulders.

I fully expect Danny to swing for some blockbuster this summer, but truly I think if the current squad shows some life in the playoffs, and with Jeff Green presumed to wait in the wings, perhaps the team could be an impact big man away from making another dark horse run.

I suspect we might find someone without breaking the bank if we can offer them even so little as a bit over the MLE, say $7-9M per. 

So perhaps we can keep the band together for a bit longer.

What do you think?
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2012, 12:33:39 AM »

Offline Celticjay

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Quote from: MVP on March 31, 2012, 10:23:54 PM
Here's my plan for next year:

- Resign KG for 9-10M per (2 years if he wants it)
- Assume Bass opts out and wants a Big Baby like deal > let him walk
- Resign Jeff Green at a contract starting at 6-7M
- Sign Asik at a contract starting at 5M (most he can get in his first year)
- Resign Ray Allen for a 1 year deal around 6-7M
- Resign Stiemsma for his QO, pick up option on Moore
- Fill out rest of roster with picks, minimum level players

Final Roster:
pg: Rajon Rondo - Moore or draft pick
sg: Avery Bradley - Ray Allen
sf: Paul Pierce - Jeff Green
pf: Kevin Garnett - JJJ or draft pick
 c: Omer Asik - Greg Stiemsma

Like this and it is reasonable

Asik is restricted though.  So that would depend on how much the bulls like him.  He is an exceptional defender and rebounder which is exactly what this team needs.  Would love to get Bass back in that Group almost more than Ray.  Austin Rivers could be a great swing guard to cover AB and RR.  Plus the one thing he does well is create his own offense.

C: Asik
PF: KG
SF:Pierce
SG AB
PG: RR

Bench: Green, Bass, Rivers, Steimsma, JJ, Moore
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Re: The plan #2
« Reply #14 on: April 01, 2012, 12:40:29 AM »

Offline Celticjay

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Quote from: Celticjay on April 01, 2012, 12:33:39 AM
Quote from: MVP on March 31, 2012, 10:23:54 PM
Here's my plan for next year:

- Resign KG for 9-10M per (2 years if he wants it)
- Assume Bass opts out and wants a Big Baby like deal > let him walk
- Resign Jeff Green at a contract starting at 6-7M
- Sign Asik at a contract starting at 5M (most he can get in his first year)
- Resign Ray Allen for a 1 year deal around 6-7M
- Resign Stiemsma for his QO, pick up option on Moore
- Fill out rest of roster with picks, minimum level players

Final Roster:
pg: Rajon Rondo - Moore or draft pick
sg: Avery Bradley - Ray Allen
sf: Paul Pierce - Jeff Green
pf: Kevin Garnett - JJJ or draft pick
 c: Omer Asik - Greg Stiemsma

Like this and it is reasonable

Asik is restricted though.  So that would depend on how much the bulls like him.  He is an exceptional defender and rebounder which is exactly what this team needs.  Would love to get Bass back in that Group almost more than Ray.  Austin Rivers could be a great swing guard to cover AB and RR.  Plus the one thing he does well is create his own offense.

C: Asik
PF: KG
SF:Pierce
SG AB
PG: RR

Bench: Green, Bass, Rivers, Steimsma, JJ, Moore

Just had another thought.  Since KG is playing great at Center let's keep him there going forward.  He is 7-1..

Let's create a speed lineup to take advantage of Rondo's pace.

C:KG
PF:Bass
SF:Green
SG:AB
PG:RR

Bench: Pierce,Asik,Rivers,Steimsma, JJ etc.

I know Pierce seems odd out of the starting lineup, but if green is good to go he just flys up the floor and out runs everybody.  That would be a very entertaining group to start games with.  Obviously it would change come crunch time..

KG, Green, Decent Free agent and solid Draft give us a real chance at a quick turnaround
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