Is Tanking Over-rated?

[LooseCannon]

Over at Freakonomics, Dave Berri (of Wages of Win) has a post up noting that teams that are contenders (defined as teams with 55 or more regular season wins) are rarely horrible in the four seasons before getting to that level. 

A follow-up on Wages of Win by Andres Alvarez notes:

A team that tanks to get a good draft prospect is simply not in good shape. There’s many reasons for this. The odds a rookie will be great are low. Bad teams often have multiple problems to fix. Frankly, it’s a much better scenario to have a few good players on a team lacking depth.

Arguably, the path to being on the "treadmill of mediocrity" involves drafting poorly in the back half of the first round, signing players to contracts that destroy your cap situation (especially bad long-term MLE contracts), and being unable to use trades to improve your team.  Finishing a season a few games over .500 isn't a reason for panic and calls to blow things up and tank.

[goCeltics]

if you were hornet or bobcat fan your telling me you don't want the greatest chance at davis??? U think the thunder would be in the same place without durrant? the bulls without rose or the the magic without howard? all acquired with the help of ping pong balls

the problem is that franchise changing players are few are far between and there is not one availabe in every draft, this year there is one in davis from kentucky.

[jdz101]

if you were hornet or bobcat fan your telling me you don't want the greatest chance at davis??? U think the thunder would be in the same place without durrant? the bulls without rose or the the magic without howard? all acquired with the help of ping pong balls

the problem is that franchise changing players are few are far between and there is not one availabe in every draft, this year there is one in davis from kentucky.

Don't say anyone is a lock to be a franchise changer without seeing them play at NBA level first. I do understand that Davis is a freak of nature but anything can happen with rookies/draft picks.

[LooseCannon]

if you were hornet or bobcat fan your telling me you don't want the greatest chance at davis??? U think the thunder would be in the same place without durrant? the bulls without rose or the the magic without howard? all acquired with the help of ping pong balls

Tanking is a good strategy if your team is already bad.  Tanking may not be the best or quickest way to become a contender if you are a perennial playoff team that actually has some talent.

The arguments I linked to suggest that if you are a team like the Celtics, it would be stupid to try to tank by trading Rajon Rondo for inferior talent because it is quite likely that you wouldn't get a better player with an early first round draft pick.  It may be better to try to draft wisely in the back end of the first round and develop young players who look like attractive potential starters that you can package in a deal for a top player (you would probably also want to try and avoid using the MLE to sign players to untradeable contracts which can't be packaged in a deal for a star) than it is to try to get lucky in the lottery.

[jacksmedulaoblongata]

If you believe the lottery is nothing more than David Stern deciding who picks where, it probably is.

[Celtics4ever]

Tell the spurs that it is over rated.....

[Fan from VT]

I need to take time to go read that article, but at first blush it doesn't pass the sniff test. Mostly because, if you think about it, most teams that are 55 game winners of course haven't been awful in the last 4 years. The Spurs haven't been awful for a decade, but that one awful season gave them Duncan. So by being awful once, they ensured being not-awful for 14 years! Same for Dwight. The Magic have been not-awful for a while, but that one awful time gave them dwight. Derrick Rose. Durant. The C's built their run when they got the #5 pick via second worst record in the league.

Detroit was a perennial contender without their own high lotto pick and so were the lakers. But I think Detroit was a fluke and the Lakers are a unique situation, handpicked by one start and smart at taking advantage of capspace for shaq.

[cman88]

The bobcats and raptors say hello...those teams have been in the lottery for years. Hasn't helped them

Also the bulls were in mediocrity for a decade before they lucked out with rose.

The cs best chance is to stick with rondo and draft young guys and develop them..and maybe if a star comes along you can package them and trade...its more likely to become a contendor that way than hoping the ping pong balls go your way in the right draft...the c's missed out on duncan and durant

So I don't want the cs to follow that route

[LooseCannon]

The Spurs were awful for one season because David Robinson missed almost the entire season, Sean Elliott missed half the season, sixth man Chuck Person missed the entire season, and other injuries. The Celtics of this season weren't half as wrecked as the 96-87 Spurs were.  That's a fluke loss of talent due to injury that you can't plan to copy.

The Bulls were lucky and got Derrick Rose when they had only the ninth-worst record and only a 1.7% of winning the lottery.  You can't plan on getting that lucky.

The Magic seemed to collapse because their defense deserted them, but it isn't obvious from the stats as to why.  I can't immediately explain why they did so bad without doing some research.  Still, they weren't a playoff team until Dwight Howard's fourth season and they didn't get to 55 wins until his sixth season.

The Celtics got to that 5th pick due to Paul Pierce's injury and some really egregious tanking (they were 20-27 with Pierce, 4-21 without him).  And they traded the pick rather than using it to draft a possible franchise player.

#1 overall picks since 1980 who have been on a world championship team: Mark Aguirre (twice), James Worthy (thrice), Hakeen Olajuwon (twice), David Robinson (twice), Shaquille O'Neal (four times), Glenn Robinson (once), Tim Duncan (four times).  Worthy and Duncan are the only players on that list to get a ring in their first seven seasons.  If we exclude the last seven drafts, then 28% of first overall picks since 1980 have won an NBA title.

If you wanted a team like Boston to tank and be bad in order to get a top draft pick, it probably involves a 2-3 year slide towards the bottom without drafting any starter-caliber players, followed by 4-5 years of surrounding a superstar (if you get one) with talent, longer if you fail to draft a franchise player in your first crack at it.

[cman88]

To be honest don't you think bradley and steimsma are developing better being in our curent situation than if we were a lottery team?

[Greenbean]

The percentages are low in the NBA draft that you will get a real difference maker.

It's about roster building.

I hope Ainge can get us a younger, more deep team with multiple 1st rounders this year and some cap space to get NBA bodies.

[Fafnir]

The percentages are low in the NBA draft that you will get a real difference maker.

It's about roster building.

I hope Ainge can get us a younger, more deep team with multiple 1st rounders this year and some cap space to get NBA bodies.

I just hope he doesn't repeat Joe Dumars massive mistakes....

(Ben Gordon and Charlie V everyone!!!)

[Moranis]

The bobcats and raptors say hello...those teams have been in the lottery for years. Hasn't helped them

Also the bulls were in mediocrity for a decade before they lucked out with rose.

The cs best chance is to stick with rondo and draft young guys and develop them..and maybe if a star comes along you can package them and trade...its more likely to become a contendor that way than hoping the ping pong balls go your way in the right draft...the c's missed out on duncan and durant

So I don't want the cs to follow that route

Come on now with the Raptors.  They were in the playoffs in back to back seasons 4 seasons ago (even won the division the first of those seasons), and were barely out of the playoffs the two years after that because of Bosh.  They have only been terrible last year and this year (without Bosh). 

The Bobcats were in the playoffs in 09-10 after winning 44 games and even last year they weren't a terrible team (thus they haven't had a top 5 draft pick since Morrison in 2006. 

Not exactly the best examples to use.

[LooseCannon]

I just hope he doesn't repeat Joe Dumars massive mistakes....

(Ben Gordon and Charlie V everyone!!!)

I think his unwillingness to give long contracts to Posey and Perkins suggests he isn't going to make those sorts of mistakes.

[Finkelskyhook]

If you believe the lottery is nothing more than David Stern deciding who picks where, it probably is.

It clearly was the year we tanked.

A side note:  If the Bobcats truly are tanking....That last night's game was competitive as it was doesn't bode well for us.