The Plan

[Evantime34]

With no moves being made at the trade deadline I wanted to take a guess as to what this teams options are for the future. I will break down the steps to creating the team before next year.

Barring a trade these players are under contract for next year.

1-Rondo, Bradley, Moore
2-
3- Pierce
4- JuJuan Johnson
5-

Step 1: NBA Draft
Currently we have our pick and the Clippers pick in the first round. Right now those are the 17th and 24th picks. I expect us to go athletic and/or big with all of our picks, so that we can become the running team that would make Rondo the most effective. Around the two spots where we will be picking here are the guys projected to be around at our positions of need (everywhere but the 1).
5- Myers Leonard, Tyler Zeller, Festus Ezeli, Fab Melo, Patric Young
4- Mason Plumlee, Arnet Moultrie, Tony Mitchell, Andrew Nicholson
3- Moe Harkless, Quincy Miller, Jeff Taylor, Terrence Jones, Terrence Ross
2- Austin Rivers, Dion Waiters, Evan Fournier, John Jenkins, Doron Lamb.

Don't be surprised if there is a trade on draft night. If it looks like we're going to want to completely start over (if KG and Ray give an indication they won't stay) I wouldn't be surprised if Paul is moved. If another team decides that they are too close to the cap we could make a deal to pick up a good player for picks (Josh Smith would be an example).

Step 2: Free Agency
After the draft we will have 8 players under contract, the 5 currently under contract plus two first and a second round pick. That means we will have to fill 5-7 spots with free agents

Option 1: Retool
In this option KG Ray and Bass all decide to come back. Let's say that all these guys come in at around $4-5 MM a piece. That would leave us with about $10-12 MM in cap room. We could then go get Kaman and a bench scorer like Jason Terry. This would bring us close to the cap line which would allow us to sign Jeff Green with the 2.5 room exception. This team would allow our young players to grow under veterans and take up our cap space with shorter deals preserving our future cap space. That team would look like this.
5- Kaman, Plumlee
4- KG, Bass, JJJ
3- Pierce, Green
2- Ray, Terry, Rivers
1- Rondo, Bradley

This team is probably a mid seed in the eastern conference, with young players at every position who could grow. It would leave us with a lot of cap room and delay rebuilding for another year.

Option 2: Rebuild
In this option KG, Ray, and Bass decide that they can move on to better situations. If Pierce doesn't want to be part of the youth movement for his last year we field offers for him. In this option we are going hard after two top level restricted players. Here would be the guys I would go after in this order.
Eric Gordon, Nic Batum, Roy Hibbert, Ryan Anderson, JaVale McGee, OJ Mayo, Brook Lopez, Mike Beasley, Omer Asik.

Two of those guys plus Rondo and our young players would give us a good core to grow with and the possibility of fighting for a late playoff spot. The problem with this is you need to sign restricted free agents, so you are probably overpaying to convince the other team not to match.

Option 3: Punt this year and go young.
In this option we populate take our young core and draft picks then sign cheap athletic players that might be able to run with Rondo. Here are some options in that vein. Courtney Lee, Robin Lopez, Alonzo Gee, Anthony Randolph, Daryl Arthur, Derek Brown.

This team would probably be bad unless one of our young players made a leap. However we'd have a young core and a ton of cap space the year after to entice free agents. Here are the  best 2013 free agents.
Unrestricted
1. Dwight Howard
2. Chris Paul
3. Monta Ellis
4. Andre Iguodala
5. Josh Smith
6. Paul Milsap
7. Al Jefferson
8. Kevin Martin
9. David West
Restricted
1. James Harden
2. Serge Ibaka
3. Steph Curry
4. Blake Griffin
With this healthy crop of free agents in 2013 it might not be a terrible outcome if we stink next year only to come back with a high draft pick and tons of cap space in 2013.

For me the first option is my favorite, but it depends heavily on KG and Ray wanting to stay which the Jackie Mac article brought into question.

Let me know your thoughts.

[arctic 3.0]

well thought out future analysis. TP
i'd agree that retooling is the most attractive option for us as fans watching the game.
however i'm ready to man up and watch a stinky team for 1 season in order to have lots of cap room and a high pick for the 2013 fa class.

[Who]

I am liking the idea of pursuing Michael Beasley more and more.

I think Danny will keep together the Big Three for another year given the lack of quality alternatives in free agency + the quality already on the roster in Rondo and Pierce which will make getting high draft picks more difficult.

[Evantime34]

I am liking the idea of pursuing Michael Beasley more and more.

I think Danny will keep together the Big Three for another year given the lack of quality alternatives in free agency + the quality already on the roster in Rondo and Pierce which will make getting high draft picks more difficult.

I like Beasley, but I think him and Green are kind of redundant. I think Green would come a lot cheaper as well.

[Who]

I am liking the idea of pursuing Michael Beasley more and more.

I think Danny will keep together the Big Three for another year given the lack of quality alternatives in free agency + the quality already on the roster in Rondo and Pierce which will make getting high draft picks more difficult.

I like Beasley, but I think him and Green are kind of redundant. I think Green would come a lot cheaper as well.

Two completely different players to me.

Michael Beasley is an out and out power forward. An undersized PF in the mold of a David West.

Jeff Green is an out and out small forward more similar to a Wilson Chandler.

[Evantime34]

I am liking the idea of pursuing Michael Beasley more and more.

I think Danny will keep together the Big Three for another year given the lack of quality alternatives in free agency + the quality already on the roster in Rondo and Pierce which will make getting high draft picks more difficult.

I like Beasley, but I think him and Green are kind of redundant. I think Green would come a lot cheaper as well.

Two completely different players to me.

Michael Beasley is an out and out power forward. An undersized PF in the mold of a David West.

Jeff Green is an out and out small forward more similar to a Wilson Chandler.

The problem with playing them together is neither rebounds well at all.

[Who]

I am liking the idea of pursuing Michael Beasley more and more.

I think Danny will keep together the Big Three for another year given the lack of quality alternatives in free agency + the quality already on the roster in Rondo and Pierce which will make getting high draft picks more difficult.

I like Beasley, but I think him and Green are kind of redundant. I think Green would come a lot cheaper as well.

Two completely different players to me.

Michael Beasley is an out and out power forward. An undersized PF in the mold of a David West.

Jeff Green is an out and out small forward more similar to a Wilson Chandler.

The problem with playing them together is neither rebounds well at all.

Hmmm ... that could be a problem.

I am not sure what Beasley is as a rebounder yet. I think he may be able to become a plus rebounder over time. Then again, there is a strong chance he doesn't and remains in that firmly below par category.

I'd sign Beasley to a long term contract and Green to a one year contract. If Green can't do enough as a defender/rebounder and/or as an overall player to justify staying (alongside Beasley), cut him loose.

I prefer and choose Beasley over Green in the long term.

[letsgoblue86]

I don't want to be such a pessimist, but I think the big 3 era needs to end after this year.  If Ray and KG want to sign for us cheap than I say do it.  But if they are going to be centerpieces again next year, I don't like the direction we'd be heading.

[slamtheking]

Option 1: Retool
In this option KG Ray and Bass all decide to come back. Let's say that all these guys come in at around $4-5 MM a piece. That would leave us with about $10-12 MM in cap room. We could then go get Kaman and a bench scorer like Jason Terry. This would bring us close to the cap line which would allow us to sign Jeff Green with the 2.5 room exception. This team would allow our young players to grow under veterans and take up our cap space with shorter deals preserving our future cap space.

I think retooling is the most likely option.  I don't think the projected salaries you have for KG, Ray and Bass are likely though.  I think all 3 are a bit low.  Also, I believe Green is a UFA and that we have no Bird or non-Bird rights to him (I could very well be wrong on that though).  I believe he'll command 6 mill a year easy from someone if not the C's.

Bottom line, even though I agree Kaman could be a realistic target, if we get him I think at least 2 of the FA's we'd like to resign would have to leave. 

[mctyson]

KG is not going to resign for 5Mil.  He is one of the best defenders in the league and could instantly catapult a good team to being a Finals team.  Someone will offer him three time that much, and the Celtics will not pay it.

[More Banners]

I like the idea of absorbing a somewhat bloated contract of a very very good player plus take a pick as a sweetener, and then keep the band together as long as possible with the overpaid reinforcements and Jeff Green plus the draft picks who eventually take their positions in the rotation, but balance the salary of the roster by providing cheap roster filler while on rookie deals.

How's that?

We could simply take on players like Okafor or Al Jefferson or if they come with a pick, or perhaps an overpaid established star for a pick and perhaps then we could flip a pick for an NBA-ready piece now and then.  Perhaps overpay someone like Wilson Chandler for a 3 year deal.

We'd possibly contend with the current roster plus someone like Okafor or Al Jefferson, and perhaps we could get Rudy Gay to bolster the current crowd into contention while the picks develop. 

Just some ideas, but cap space can present unexpected opportunities, large and small.

[Geo123]

KG is not going to resign for 5Mil.  He is one of the best defenders in the league and could instantly catapult a good team to being a Finals team.  Someone will offer him three time that much, and the Celtics will not pay it.

There is no way anybody will pay KG 15 million at this point in his career... 

[Who]

$10 million sounds about right to me for Garnett.

[Evantime34]

In response to the responses.

I think that KG and Ray will take less money to stay here or they won't be here next year. If they want more money than we are willing to give that will necessitate a move towards another option. Maybe I'm naive but I think that their time here will convince them to stay for a home town discount. If they will not stay for less money I doubt we will be able to convince other veterans like Terry and Kaman to sign here.

I'm not sure about Jeff Green making $6 MM, he is a year off of heart surgery. I would be skeptical that a team is willing to commit to him. I think signing him to the under the cap version of the MLE ($2.5 room option) for a year so he can have a chance to re-establish his value.

As to Beasley, I could see him benefiting greatly from playing with a point guard like Rondo. I could also see Doc getting to him and helping improve his shot selection (like he did with Pierce when he first got here). Green and Beasley running with Rondo would certainly be a terror on the break. Do you believe that the Timberwolves will sign his qualifying offer? With how they were looking to trade him and the high price tag ($8.2 mm) I don't see it happening. This could help drive his price down.

Personally I believe KG is at the point in his career where I don't see money being a big motivator. I see him either choosing to chase for a championship or loyalty. I expect to see him in Boston or Minnesota.

I expect to know what the Celtics are doing very early in free agency. If we renounce KG, and Ray I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't come back.

If KG costs $10 MM I don't think we bring him back, not because he's not worth it. We wouldn't sign him to that much because to bring him back we would be making a commitment for one last run. WIth him making $10 MM I don't think we have the cap space to sign enough other players to make one last run.

[Who]

I could see Garnett taking a big discount if it meant a major star arriving in Boston, such as a Dwight Howard or even a lesser All-Star caliber talent, but without Danny Ainge being able to point to that player and show to KG (and Ray) that this team can be a title contender and that they can finish their career on a high note playing for a title (if they are willing to take a huge pay cut) ... I cannot see Garnett taking a major pay cut.

Without that player, that All-Star talent, I expect Garnett to want $10-12 million and I think he'll take the low end of that to give Danny a little more wiggle room.