Wilson Chandler to Re-sign? But Why?

[StartOrien]

The Nuggets and Wilson Chandler are close to an agreement on a contract worth more than $30 million over five seasons.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/219820/Wilson_Chandler_Close_To_$30M_Deal_With_Denver

Seems like this guy is getting some really bad advice:

His original decision to go to China was a fairly poor, and this contract seems really, really low to me. You'd have to think he'd be able to command around 8-10 mil a season if he were to hit free agency. At the very least, cut down the years.

He's a guy I'd absolutely love to see in green, even at the higher end of my estimate.

[Roy H.]

I don't know if it's going to work this way, but let's say it does:

The 5 years includes this season.  This season Chandler was scheduled to make a pro-rated share of his qualifying offer.  I believe that's somewhere around $800k.

Subtract that out, and this looks closer to a 4 year, $29 million deal.  However, next season Chandler would have been restricted again, and worst case scenario, he would have been playing for $3 million again.  Assume that, and he would have had to sign a 3 year, $26 million deal when he finally became an unrestricted free agent to make up the difference.

Factoring in his limited options, 5 years, $30 million doesn't sound terrible, so long as this season is one of those years (and I believe it has to be).

[StartOrien]

That makes a little more sense, but I still think it's a poor decision.

There are a decent amount of teams that'll have cap space to spare, and he's a relatively attractive free agent. I'd have to think that he could command more than 7 a year over the next 4 seasons. 

[LB3533]

Jeff Green is better, but that's a decent deal for the Nuggets.

[StartOrien]

Jeff Green is better, but that's a decent deal for the Nuggets.

I don't think there's a single aspect of basketball that Jeff Green is better than Wilson Chandler at.

[mqtcelticsfan]

I dunno. Even if his per-year average is lower than he could get, a guaranteed $30 million is nothing to scoff at. I think just about every player should take the long-term contract if offered.

[StartOrien]

I dunno. Even if his per-year average is lower than he could get, a guaranteed $30 million is nothing to scoff at. I think just about every player should take the long-term contract if offered.

I think the years is something to keep in mind, but only if you think he couldn't get it.

Let's take the matter to home; I wouldn't be against Ainge offering 36 mil over 4 years at 9 a year average.

[The Walker Wiggle]

When he and his agent failed to draw an offer sheet from another team they lost all leverage. My impression is that he would've much preferred to play out the season for the Nuggets with your same belief that he'd draw heavy interest in a weak F.A. class, restricted or no. And apparently Denver's front office agreed and refused to even discuss a one year deal.

If in the end, he couldn't resign himself to going abroad again or sitting out the remainder of the season I can't judge him too harshly.

[Who]

I don't know if it's going to work this way, but let's say it does:

The 5 years includes this season.  This season Chandler was scheduled to make a pro-rated share of his qualifying offer.  I believe that's somewhere around $800k.

Subtract that out, and this looks closer to a 4 year, $29 million deal.  However, next season Chandler would have been restricted again, and worst case scenario, he would have been playing for $3 million again.  Assume that, and he would have had to sign a 3 year, $26 million deal when he finally became an unrestricted free agent to make up the difference.

Factoring in his limited options, 5 years, $30 million doesn't sound terrible, so long as this season is one of those years (and I believe it has to be).

I think Wilson Chandler is a $35-40 million over five years type of player.

So if Roy's theory is right and that $30 million includes the pro-rated number for this season, $28million over four years isn't that bad. It's a little on the low side but it's not worth sitting out over. Get back on the court.

If that $30 million doesn't depict W.Chandler's pro-rated 2012 salary, then it is a really bad deal ... and yes, his agent should be fired over it.

[xmuscularghandix]

Jeff Green is better, but that's a decent deal for the Nuggets.

I don't think there's a single aspect of basketball that Jeff Green is better than Wilson Chandler at.

I feel the opposite, Jeff Green is better player than Chandler. But overall pretty similar, only real difference is that Chandler is more of a ball handler while Jeff Green has more size.

[Geo123]

Jeff Green is better, but that's a decent deal for the Nuggets.

No he's not coming off his heart issues.  He's too much of an unknown.  It's not close...

[StartOrien]

Jeff Green is better, but that's a decent deal for the Nuggets.

I don't think there's a single aspect of basketball that Jeff Green is better than Wilson Chandler at.

I feel the opposite, Jeff Green is better player than Chandler. But overall pretty similar, only real difference is that Chandler is more of a ball handler while Jeff Green has more size.

Chandler's more athletic, significantly better defender, slightly better range, similar rebounded (in his best season Green outrebounded Chandler by only a little despite playing the 4 a significant portion).

[Rondoholic]

Chandler gets $37,000,000 over 5 years. Quite a deal for the Nuggets if you ask me.

[Marcus13]

He must like it in Denver.

Looks like he went after the long-term financial security rather than signing a fatter deal for 2-3 seasons

[RyNye]

Chandler's more athletic, significantly better defender, slightly better range, similar rebounded (in his best season Green outrebounded Chandler by only a little despite playing the 4 a significant portion).

Honesty they are pretty interchangeable players. If you look at their basketball reference statistics pages, neither of them has a clear edge in any category, really. Even though you say Chandler is a "significantly better" defender, their defensive ratings are almost identical. Every stat, from simple to advanced, has them at pretty much a wash.