Author Topic: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...  (Read 7799 times)

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If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« on: March 09, 2012, 11:53:06 AM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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Unless we can land a half decent vet big man via trade and JO comes back healthy and can contribute 15-20 minutes a night banging in the paint as well, I don;t see us making any type of playoff run this year.

Next year, we're looking at 36/37 year old KG, 35/36 year old Ray Allen and 34/35 year old Paul Pierce. Free agents even at Pietrus' and Bass' level won't be lining up to play here as they have the last four years either.

Some people say Rondo is the only "value" player we have and that KG, Ray and Pierce have very limited value to teams. I completely disagree with that.

I think for teams just short of serious contention like Indiana, Denver, Memphis, the Clippers, San Antonio and Dallas, all big three members would be highly attractive.

For the Celtics we can look at next year grinding it out with KG, Pierce and Ray again, plus whoever we can get to sign with us or we could gather young players, picks and cap space by unloading everyone before the trade deadline and jump start our rebuilding process big time.

I'm kind of the more sentimental type, hate to trade guys like this, but from a pure business standpoint it makes sense.

Here's the scenario:

Portland / Boston trade:
To Portland: KG, Pietrus   
To Boston: Camby, Crawford, Luke Babitt and Kurt Thomas or Craig Smith to make the numbers work.
* We also get a 1st round pick in this year's draft.

Why for Portland:
Aldridge / Pryzbilla
KG / Craig Smith
Wallace / Pietrus
Matthews /   
Spencer / Nolan Smith

It's about championships - and that Portland team would be a very tough team to beat in a seven game series.

Why for Boston:
We get another 1 st round pick this year, plus young talent in Batum & Babitt.

Denver / Boston trade:
To Denver: Pierce & Dooling to Denver for
To Boston: A. Miller, Mosgov, Brewer and Jordan Hamilton
* We also get a first round pick
       
Why for Denver:
Koufos / Birdman / Stiemsma
Nene / Harrington / Faried
Gallinari / Harrington 
Pierce / Afflalo / Fernandez
Lawson / Dooling

Again, try to beat that team in a seven game series - its about getting rings

Why for Boston: First round pick this year, young talent in Jordan Hamilton, Mosgov and Brewer. A. Miller expires.

Clippers / Boston trade:
To the Clippers: Ray Allen, Wilcox and Pavlovic
To Boston: Mo Williams, Foye,Cook and Trey Thompkins
* We also get a 1st round pick in a future year.

Why for the Clippers:
Jordan / Wilcox / Evans
Griffin / Martin / Evans
Butler / Gomes / Pavlovic
Ray Allen / Pavlovic
Paul / Bledsoe

Why for the Clippers: Increase their depth in the frontcourt and get the shooting guard they desperately need. Ray would have a field day on that team with the open looks he'd get. It puts the Clippers in a much stonger position to get a rind this year.

Why for Boston: Young talent in Trey Thompkins, Foye. Mo Willimas is a trade chip as an expiring and we get a future 1st round pick from the Clippers.

So now, all teams we traded to are much more of legit contenders with a real shot at winning a title.

For the Celtics, instead of having the expired contracts of Ray and KG or having them back as your core guys at 36 & 37, they have become more valuable assets on teams wit a legit shot at a title, today.

For the Celtics:

We now have the following, young talent:
Center: Mosgov & Stiemsma
Power Forward: Bass, Trey Thompkins & JuJuan Johnson
Small Forward: Jordan Hamilton, Jeff Green & Luke Babbit
Off guard: Corey Brewer & E'Tuan Moore
Point guard: Rondo & Bradley 

* Jamaal Crawford & Mo Williams are trade bait as expirings
* Kurt Thomas, Craig Smith & Brain Cook could just be waived
* Andre Miller and Camby expire this year.

We also now have the following draft picks for 2012:
The Clippers pick
The Portland pick
Denver's pick
Our own pick, which would likely be now in the lottery
A future Clippers' 1st round pick

And we have a boat load of cap space, if not this year, then next.

That's a lot better looking than trying to patch something together next year with with our current team.

So I think on the right teams our big three are incredibly valuable because they can make fringe teams legit contenders.

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2012, 11:58:12 AM »

Offline MBunge

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Okay, the Denver trade is not crazy.  The other two, however, would never happen.  No team is going to give up anything like those assets for KG and Ray at this point, especially when they might be able to sign them in the off season if either wants to keep playing.

Mike

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2012, 01:19:35 PM »

Online slamtheking

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For the Celtics:

We now have the following, young talent:
Center: Mosgov & Stiemsma
Power Forward: Bass, Trey Thompkins & JuJuan Johnson
Small Forward: Jordan Hamilton, Jeff Green & Luke Babbit
Off guard: Corey Brewer & E'Tuan Moore
Point guard: Rondo & Bradley 

* Jamaal Crawford & Mo Williams are trade bait as expirings
* Kurt Thomas, Craig Smith & Brain Cook could just be waived
* Andre Miller and Camby expire this year.

We also now have the following draft picks for 2012:
The Clippers pick
The Portland pick
Denver's pick
Our own pick, which would likely be now in the lottery
A future Clippers' 1st round pick

And we have a boat load of cap space, if not this year, then next.

That's a lot better looking than trying to patch something together next year with with our current team.

So I think on the right teams our big three are incredibly valuable because they can make fringe teams legit contenders.
=============================================

Ok, so now we have team with:
- only 1 player that's truly starter-quality in Rondo
- a bunch of young guys that might develop into rotation players
- a bunch of old guys well past their primes that you think can be unloaded for something better
- a few guys in their primes that are borderline rotation guys
- a bunch of draft picks that are likely in the 20's with the exception of our own.
- (Batum isn't listed in your trade with Portland or on your new roster but you mention him later as being on the C's)
- Green who isn't even playing this year or signed for next year
-->AND 19 players for a 15-man roster (ok 18 because Green doesn't count)

overlooking the possibility of these deals ever happening, why should they? C's have a far worse team this season as well as worse cap room going forward (as well as a worse team with all those end-of-the-rotation players still on the roster that you couldn't flip into other assets) and marginal draft picks this year for rebuilding.

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2012, 01:36:42 PM »

Offline PosImpos

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Man you put a lot of thought into these trades but uh

then why post?  you're just being a troll.
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Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2012, 01:52:20 PM »

Offline csfansince60s

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"If you don't think we can make a "legit" run..."........

Then you blow it up at the trade deadline by trading Pierce and Rondo, and have the salaries match for players who expire in '12 or'13.

1. They will fetch the most in youngs and picks
2. we will be in the lottery
3. we will have multiple (ideally four or more) picks in this loaded draft to either develop or used to get bigger pieces and
4. KG, Ray, JO and others expire this year and the contracts Pierce/Rondo got us expire next year to give us huge cap flexibility for at least the next two years.

If we can't make a legit run, Pierce and Rondo are the pieces to trade.

If we can't make a legit run why delay the rebuilding process?

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2012, 02:09:52 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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If we can't make a legit run why delay the rebuilding process?

Because if you want to trade Rondo and Pierce, you probably get more of a return for them in the summer than at the trade deadline.
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Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2012, 02:12:33 PM »

Offline Who

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I don't think Portland give up Batum for Garnett. Maybe for Pierce but not Garnett. KG is too old. Not enough value there for Portland to sacrifice a quality long term piece like Batum. If Batum isn't in the package, then Portland green light it but I don't think there is enough value there for Boston to give the go-ahead.

Trading KG with that massive contract looks ... just, too tricky. Too difficult. I think we're stuck running out the clock there. Unless the plan is too tank and improve Boston's own draft slot ... Then maybe there is a purpose to it.

Ditto for Ray Allen and the Clippers package. Asking for too large a price for too old a player. They (the Clippers) don't do that deal either.

I don't like the Pierce trade for Boston. Not enough talent coming back to justify moving Pierce. It's pretty much a straight cap dump + late first round pick. I'd need a superior package coming back to move Pierce. Either young players with very good potential (like Kawhi Leonard) or an established low level star player who is young enough to be part of the rebuilding process.

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2012, 02:17:26 PM »

Offline Who

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Denver / Boston trade:
To Denver: Pierce & Dooling to Denver for
To Boston: A. Miller, Mosgov, Brewer and Jordan Hamilton

Jordan Hamilton seems an interesting prospect to pursue. I wouldn't give up Pierce to get him but I'd like to see Danny sound the Nuggets out and see if they'd be willing to move J.Hamilton for the Clippers pick.

Similar draft range as where they took Hamilton last year. Maybe even a little better. Not playing a lot for Denver. They seem to have a couple of players ahead of him with Gallinari, Corey Brewer and maybe Wilson Chandler if he returns to the Nuggets. Makes me wonder how much Denver values Jordan Hamilton.

Maybe they'd consider moving him for the Clippers pick (late first).

If they did consider that, I'd love to make the deal because I think J.Hamilton has more potential than many of the names being floated about at the end of this year's first round.

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2012, 02:21:04 PM »

Offline StartOrien

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Portland is a really, really interesting trade partner for us.

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2012, 02:56:23 PM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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I'll take one out of three on my trades - the Denver one.

I actually didn't put a tone of thought into it, I just created some scenarios where we could go real aggressive and ship out everyone, jump start the rebuilding.

Heading into next season I wouldn't mind having all those young players and draft picks as well as our own lottery pick, which could be very high. Add the cap space, even if it takes another year to get it when Williams and Crawford come off, VS having nothing for our vets and looking at rebuilding basically with Pierce and Rondo and a couple picks...

I guess it also depends on how you look at things as an armchair GM...

For me:

Portland - I think KG, even at his age, Aldridge, Wallace, Matthews and Spencer gets me a lot closer to a title than Camby and Batum both this year and next. Batum is nice, but the combo of Aldridge, KG and Wallace? Try to beat that 4 out of seven times. Batum is replaceable - a guy like KG, even at his age, is very hard to find, expecially at playoff time.

I think it depends if you think KG on that team gives them as good a shot as anyone to get a ring this year. I do. 

Clippers - I think having Ray Allen paired with Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Jordan and Butler gets me far, far closer to a ring this year and next than Bledsoe and Thompkins.

Also, the Clippers, as constructed, actually don't need young players in the wings right now. They need the exact opposite. What they need is vet leadership in supporting roles to balance their youth. This is why their play fell off dramatically when Chauncey got injured.

Well priced vets who can bring the Clipper team far closer to a ring than Bledsoe and Thompkins will for another 2-3 years "if they pan out", will be lining up to play in LA next season. They'd be better off signing a guy like Ersan Ilyasova in the off season than waiting for Thompkins to develop. The question is, would Ray Allen and Chris Wilcox on the Clippers right now bring them closer to a ring. The answer to that question for me is without a doubt, yes. I do that trade in a NY minute.

So for us, instead of having to overpay Ray to stay with us or him walking to another team in the summer, we get some young talent and a draft pick in return.

I agree re Portland being an interesting trading partner for us.

If I'm going to rebuild, I want cap space, young players, draft picks, cap space and I want to go to the lottery immediately, the 1-5 range for 1-2 years.

I wouldn't give these guys away and if the right deal wasn't there I would just let the season play out.

But if I'm Portland, Denver, the Clippers and I'm on the fringe, I'd give up some decent young talent to add one the big three for a title run. No one will care about having let Batum go, if KG with Aldridge and Wallace brought you to the finals and possibly a ring. Same for the Clips and Denver with Ray and Pierce.         

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2012, 03:00:42 PM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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If Howard had said he would consider Boston seriously as a free agent - I'd far less inclined to move the big three, because they can be, as with other teams on the fringe, valuable role players at this point.

Howard and Rondo with KG, Ray and Pierce, even at their ages, your in contention.

But without a big name free agent in the hunt for us...I'd consider moving them.

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2012, 03:04:01 PM »

Offline Who

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With the Clippers and Ray Allen, I think Boston can ask for either (1) Mo Williams, or, (2) a first round pick with Foye and Gomes as cap make-weights.

Separately, they are both fair/reasonable trade packages and a good return for a Ray Allen but when put together ... it's too large an asking price.

I think you can get one or the other but not both.

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2012, 03:07:33 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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So for us, instead of having to overpay Ray to stay with us or him walking to another team in the summer, we get some young talent and a draft pick in return.

I agree re Portland being an interesting trading partner for us.

If I'm going to rebuild, I want cap space, young players, draft picks, cap space and I want to go to the lottery immediately, the 1-5 range for 1-2 years.

I wouldn't give these guys away and if the right deal wasn't there I would just let the season play out.

What's the least you would be willing to accept in return?  I just started a thread in the trade forum suggesting that a pure salary dump of Ray Allen to Indiana for even just a second round pick would make sense for a rebuilding team because it puts the Celtics under the luxury tax threshold.

I also think you generally need a poorly coached and untalented team, devastating injuries, or a lucky ping pong ball to get into the lottery like you want.
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Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #13 on: March 09, 2012, 03:15:02 PM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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If the Clippers would like to move Mo's Salary, most likely to sign vet guys at different positions in the off season - which I think is the right move, this makes Mo for Allen attractive for them.

Given this and taking your point into consideration, don't you think it's possible we could squeeze the following out of the Clippers?

Ray, Wilcox & Pavlovic ( They need another big man that can get up and down the court)
for
Mo Williams, Thompkins, Foye  and a future 1st?

We'd be doing them a favor by dealing with Mo's salary next year so it's cap move for them.

Now we've got a young big man to develop in Thompkins ( again if I'm the Clippers I'd rather add a young established big guy free agent than wait on Thompkins - win time is NOW for ) and a future 1st...)

Re: If you don't think we can make a "legit" run...
« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2012, 03:28:41 PM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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To LooseCannon:

Yeah, good question. So for me, I'd know what I want for Ray and I'd either get it or not trade him, period. What that is for me is a young player with some upside, a late 1st round draft pick and filler to make it work.

I'd probably target only 1-2 teams. Teams on the fringe of serious contention who need an off guard. That would give me more leverage and that's why I chose the Clippers. I truly believe that Ray Allen on that team could make the difference between them getting knocked out early this year or possibly winning a ring. He will spread the floor for them, bring vet leadership and he will get a huge number of wide open looks.

So, for a package of Ray, Wilcox & Pavlovic - I'd want:
Thompkins, a future 1st, and mo Williams and Foye to make the numbers work. I like Foye because his contract is up this year.

If I can't get something comparable to that, I'd keep Ray and take my lumps in the summer.

That's how I view it with a potential Clipper's trade because I think Ray would significantly increase their chances of making a deep playoff run and potentially winning a ring.     

I'd have to look more closely at other fringe teams to give you my bottom line acceptable value for deals for Ray.