Curious about posters' fixation with picks

[Roy H.]

Picks 21-30 are crapshoots.  In the last 10 drafts, only two guys picks in slots 21-30 have become all stars.  (TP to anyone who can name the one besides Rondo). 

Josh Howard and David Lee have both been all-stars, and both were picked #30 in their respective drafts.

[TripleOT]

Picks 21-30 are crapshoots.  In the last 10 drafts, only two guys picks in slots 21-30 have become all stars.  (TP to anyone who can name the one besides Rondo).  

You'd be lucky to find a rotation guy with picks 21-30.  There's been less than a dozen good players picked in those slots the past decade (like Ibaka, Prince, Perk, Diaw, Wilson Chandler).

Danny has been the best GM at finding rotation players in the bottom third of the draft (Rondo, Perk, TA, Delonte, Marshon Brooks l ) but he's had two big whiffs too, which if you remember his baseball career, shouldn't be too surprising (Giddens and JJJ).    

when you're picking late in the 1st round, or in the second, the criteria for success is not whether you an All-Star.  if you get a decent rotation player there, you're doing well, and it's certainly possible to find players like that late in the 1st in pretty much every draft.

There were almost 100 guys picked from 21-30 the past 10 drafts.  Only around 15 have become better than average rotation players. It's easier to find a solid rotation guy on the veteran scrap heap than through the draft.  

. . . except when you draft a player, you get to pay them a fixed salary, and you get the rights to them for a number of years.  you don't have to overpay them -- as you often do with veteran players, especially if you're a bad team -- or worry about them testing free agency every off-season.

if you want to get consistent, long-term contributors with youth and athleticism, you've got to draft them, or else way overpay for them on the free agent market.

building a supporting cast out of veterans only makes sense if you already have a championship core in place.

You might have missed where I alluded to scrap heap veterans.

I'd love to know who all these long term contributors that have come from the bottom third of the first round. As I posted earlier, there aren't that many of them.  Even stretching the terms of what a "good" player is (a top 7 rotation guy), there isn't even 30 of them from the past 10 drafts, one to man each of the NBA's 30 rosters.      

[TripleOT]

Picks 21-30 are crapshoots.  In the last 10 drafts, only two guys picks in slots 21-30 have become all stars.  (TP to anyone who can name the one besides Rondo). 

Josh Howard and David Lee have both been all-stars, and both were picked #30 in their respective drafts.

I overlooked David Lee. 

[LooseCannon]

There were almost 100 guys picked from 21-30 the past 10 drafts.  Only around 15 have become better than average rotation players. It's easier to find a solid rotation guy on the veteran scrap heap than through the draft.   

Players drafted in 2002 or later in spots 21-30 who have had at least two seasons (counting a partial 2011-2012 as a full season) with significant minutes of .110 or more WS/48 (0.100 is supposed to be approximately average):

Tayshaun Prince, Kevin Martin, David Lee, Rajon Rondo, Josh Howard, Leandro Barbosa, Delonte West, Kyle Lowry, Kendrick Perkins, Beno Udrih, Nenad Krstic, Tony Allen, Jared Dudley, Ryan Anderson, Nate Robinson, Nicolas Batum, George Hill, Jason Maxiell, Sasha Vujacic, Luther Head, Serge Ibaka, Linas Kleiza, Taj Gibson, Jordan Farmar, Trevor Booker, Tiago Splitter, Rodrigue Beaubois

Notable players who did not make the cut: Boris Diaw, John Salmons, Jarrett Jack, Carlos Delfino, Aaron Affalo, Francisco Garcia, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Courtney Lee, Aaron Brooks, Wilson Chandler, Darren Collison, Shannon Brown

I've named 40 of the 100 players drafted 21-30 in the last ten drafts and I've left out some guys such as Brian Cook.  Plus, more recently drafted players such as MarShon Brooks haven't had time to have two such seasons.

[CelticG1]

Picks 21-30 are crapshoots.  In the last 10 drafts, only two guys picks in slots 21-30 have become all stars.  (TP to anyone who can name the one besides Rondo).  

Josh Howard and David Lee have both been all-stars, and both were picked #30 in their respective drafts.

I overlooked David Lee.  

Mo Williams,  jameer nelson or some other crappy guy?

I don't buy this whole deep draft thing for this year. People are putting way too much stock I I this being a "Loaded" draft because that's what "experts" are predicting. I feel like these "experts" swing and miss non stop when evaluating players.

Plus even the deepest drafts aren't that impressive to me. There are always more busts than hits

Edit: my bad didn't realize this was answered already