Just posting so people can read it. Does not mean I agree with the sentiment of the article. Enjoy.
http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/219437/Why_The_Celtics_Should_Make_One_Last_Run_With_Current_CoreBy Andrew Perna, Real GM.
After Sunday afternoon’s win over the New York Knicks, the Boston Celtics are two games over .500 and have a game-and-a-half lead over those same Knicks for the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference.
Despite four consecutive wins, there is concern in Boston because fans and the media have become accustomed to very good basketball and the entire core of the team has been involved in trade rumors.
If you look over the haze of how inferior they are from the class of the East, all the speculation and inconsistent play, however, you can see a bright light. The Celtics trail the Atlantic Division-leading Philadelphia 76ers by less than three games.
A pessimist will point out that the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers are just five games back of the Celtics as they try to battle for one of the last two playoff berths. Boston has defeated both Milwaukee and Cleveland in the last week.
Between now and this month’s trade deadline, Danny Ainge will have to decide whether to keep the team’s core together for another run or begin the process of remaking (notice I didn’t use the word “rebuilding”) the roster with the contracts of Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O’Neal and many others coming off the books.
The decision won’t be an easy one for Ainge given the names involved. We are talking about All-Stars (past, present and future), which always complicates matters. Dealing Paul Pierce, who was mentioned in rumors near the start of the season, would be the most involved divorce given his status as one of the franchise’s all-time greats and the centerpiece of the roster since 1998.
With a number of contending teams looking for playoff rentals, guys like Allen and Garnett are extremely valuable. It would only take a phone call for Ainge to engage in serious talks regarding either player, not to say he has or hasn’t at this point. The issue with such a trade is that what they would receive in return more than likely wouldn’t help their cause in the short- or long-term.
That is the foremost reason Ainge should keep his finger off the trigger through the deadline, unless he can find someone willing to take O’Neal’s contract, which could provide some relief to a cost-cutting team willing to part with a serviceable reserve.
Standing pat would allow the Celtics to make one more run, while also preserving their roster flexibility this coming offseason. The only real way to facilitate their makeover would be to trade Pierce or Rondo, which at this point seems unlikely.
Doc Rivers and Ainge both came out against the Rondo rumors this past week and given his age he seems like the player they will at least partly build their roster around in the coming seasons. Pierce is under contract for two more seasons and has that many above-average years left in him. At 34, he was an All-Star once again and is putting up 17.8 points, 5.5 assists and 5.4 rebounds. He has rounded into shape nicely after a heel injury cost him part of training camp and the first three games of the season.
Garnett ($21.2 million) and Allen ($10 million) are only fits for teams looking to move up a few spots in the playoff seeding and challenge the likes of Chicago, Miami, Oklahoma City and San Antonio. Any team that could offer a high draft pick in return has no reason to want Garnett or Allen for less than 30 games.
Rivers has confirmed that it was just a rumor, but the only type of Garnett/Allen deal that would benefit the Celtics would be something in the vein of the Josh Smith-for Garnett “proposal,” which at least would give Ainge a talented player under control past this season. That particular deal won’t happen and was likely never even on the table, as Smith doesn’t have the skill set or personality that Boston wants/needs.
Even with Pierce and Rondo making a combined $27.7 million next year, the Celtics only have around $35 million in commitments. Brandon Bass will return at an affordable $4 million, while Avery Bradley and JaJuan Johnson will make less than $3 million between them. Assuming E’Twaun Moore is brought back for a second season, you can add another million to that total.
The salary cap for the 2012-13 season should remain around $58 million, but there will be an incremental tax increase introduced for every $5 million a team goes over the tax threshold. Boston won’t have a problem spending all or more of their cap space, which projects to be in the neighborhood of $23 million, and paying some tax is something they haven’t been afraid of during the current reign. Their levy was/will be at least $10 million this season.
Assuming the Celtics forgo any major changes, the question becomes one about their limitations on the court.
They will make the playoffs. I don’t buy into talk that they’ll need to back in, hoping that the Knicks, Bucks and Cavaliers falter. Boston’s chances once they get into the postseason will hinge on whether or not they are able to surpass one of the four teams that currently holds the third-sixth spots (Indiana, Philadelphia, Orlando and Atlanta), which would allow them to avoid facing the Bulls or Heat in the first round.
The Celtics have lost three of four against the top two teams in the conference this season, but they are 5-3 against the other teams currently in the playoff picture. The bizarre lockout-shortened schedule has kept Boston from playing Atlanta or Philadelphia until this month. They will play those two teams six times over the final six-plus weeks of the season.
After some struggles in the early weeks, the Celtics are once again one of the best defensive teams in the league. They allow 98.8 points per 100 possessions, which is good enough for third behind Chicago and Philadelphia. Defenses tighten up in the postseason, which means Boston should become even harder to score in bunches on. That makes them a tough out for the midlevel tier of teams, even if they aren’t explosive offensively.
The Celtics are scoring 100.4 points per 100 possessions, which computes out to only a slightly positive differential and has them ranked them ahead of just five clubs. All five of those teams are headed for the draft lottery.
While their defense will make them dangerous come playoff time, they will only go as far as their offense takes them. They are 7-3 this season when shooting better than 50% from the field and 16-3 when scoring more than 90 points. As impressive as that record is, it showcases just how poorly they have been offensively. They have scored fewer than 90 points in 17 games. They do play good enough defense to win a game that finishes in the seventies, but trying to do that more than once in a seven-game series will be difficult.
Boston’s scoring issues don’t stem from the shots they actually take – they have the sixth-highest field goal percentage – but rather their problems with rebounding. They lack size, often having to slide Garnett to center, which he despises, with O’Neal unable to stay healthy. Their only other big men are Chris Wilcox, who has played well in spurts as Rondo’s running mate in transition, and rookies JaJuan Johnson and Greg Stiemsma.
The Celtics are last in offensive rebounding percentage and they have allowed good rebounding teams to dominate on the glass all too often. You would see their offensive efficiency increase substantially if they keep teams off the glass, even if they aren’t going to rebound their own misses. They are in the bottom third of the league in defensive rebound percentage, grabbing just 72.8% of available misses.
Unlikely to acquire size and with O’Neal facing the possibility of season-ending wrist surgery, another way for the Celtics to improve offensively would be to take better care of the basketball. They have the second-high turnover percentage in the league, only the Thunder turn the ball over at a higher rate. Boston ranks 16th in actual turnovers, but their slow pace means fewer possessions than all but four teams.
The Celtics have three players – Stiemsma, Wilcox and Keyon Dooling – that rank among the thirty-highest turnover percentages. A number of the miscues can be blamed on botched “home run” passes, which the team has been trying to avoid in recent games.
With just two more wins than losses, the Celtics don’t necessarily have a “type” when it comes to opponents that give them trouble. They have lost to the elites (Miami and Oklahoma City), the midlevels (Indiana, Dallas) and the awfuls (New Orleans, Toronto).
When asked if the Celtics had trouble with a particular sort of team, Allen brushed the notion aside.
“Yeah, ourselves,” he told me.
No one, Ray claims. Not a young team with boundless energy? Not a big one with long-armed rebounding machines? Not even a certain team with three All-Stars in their respective primes?
“I think we are beating ourselves,” he repeated.
If that’s the case, Ainge is the only person that can prevent the Celtics from putting one more run together. Leave the core together for another playoff run, see what happens and begin remodeling in July.
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