Rational Approach This Season/Next

[ChiefDK]

With the Cs playing better, I think trading one of the big 4 this season would send a horrible message, unless they get an immediate impact player in return.

That being said, and with the odds against them acquiring Deron Williams/Dwight Howard, here's what I propose they try to do in the offseason:

Re-sign KG to a cheaper, one-year deal ($9-$11M)
Re-Sign Ray to a cheaper, one-year deal ($5-$7Mil)
Use cap room to acquire good rebounding center (Chris Kaman perhaps on a 3 year deal for $8-9m per)
Re-sign Jeff Green to one year deal ($7-$8m)

Fill the rest of the roster with minimum level guys and rookie contracts.

This set-up would allow Ainge to use the season as a "bridge" to the next era - it would be much easier to trade KG and Ray (due to there friendlier contracts) during the season if the team isn't performing. Would also set him up for the deeper 2013 free agent class (Josh Smith, Iguodala, etc.) and give him the opportunity to rebuild on the fly.

Thoughts welcome.

[Roy H.]

I think it's a solid enough plan, with the exception of this part:

Use cap room to acquire good rebounding center (Chris Kaman perhaps on a 3 year deal for $8-9m per)

Eating up $8 to $9 million on Chris Kaman would be a very poor idea, in my mind.  He's going to be 30 in a couple of months, and more importantly, he's just been a huge injury risk.  He's missed 26+ games in three of the four years prior to this one.  Additionally, he's been a pretty mediocre defender, and his offense this year has been pretty putrid, shooting 41% from the floor.

If the team wants to overpay for Chris Kaman or any other free agent on a one year deal, fantastic.  However, if we're going to eat into future years, I'd like to use the cap on an impact player who can be part of the rebuilding effort once the big three move on.  That player isn't Kaman.

[ChiefDK]

I think it's a solid enough plan, with the exception of this part:

Use cap room to acquire good rebounding center (Chris Kaman perhaps on a 3 year deal for $8-9m per)

Eating up $8 to $9 million on Chris Kaman would be a very poor idea, in my mind.  He's going to be 30 in a couple of months, and more importantly, he's just been a huge injury risk.  He's missed 26+ games in three of the four years prior to this one.  Additionally, he's been a pretty mediocre defender, and his offense this year has been pretty putrid, shooting 41% from the floor.

If the team wants to overpay for Chris Kaman or any other free agent on a one year deal, fantastic.  However, if we're going to eat into future years, I'd like to use the cap on an impact player who can be part of the rebuilding effort once the big three move on.  That player isn't Kaman.

I knew that move would draw some criticism. You're probably right 3 years to a player like that is a good way to shoot one's self in the foot. Who could they get to fill the middle on a temporary basis? Not sure if Kaman can be had on a one year deal.

[Roy H.]

I think it's a solid enough plan, with the exception of this part:

Use cap room to acquire good rebounding center (Chris Kaman perhaps on a 3 year deal for $8-9m per)

Eating up $8 to $9 million on Chris Kaman would be a very poor idea, in my mind.  He's going to be 30 in a couple of months, and more importantly, he's just been a huge injury risk.  He's missed 26+ games in three of the four years prior to this one.  Additionally, he's been a pretty mediocre defender, and his offense this year has been pretty putrid, shooting 41% from the floor.

If the team wants to overpay for Chris Kaman or any other free agent on a one year deal, fantastic.  However, if we're going to eat into future years, I'd like to use the cap on an impact player who can be part of the rebuilding effort once the big three move on.  That player isn't Kaman.

I knew that move would draw some criticism. You're probably right 3 years to a player like that is a good way to shoot one's self in the foot. Who could they get to fill the middle on a temporary basis? Not sure if Kaman can be had on a one year deal.

Yeah, the "who do we sign" issue is the biggest one, when a semi-scrub like Kwame Brown makes $7 million on a one-year deal.  There aren't a lot of good options, but if we're going to go three years, I'd try to get somebody like Spencer Hawes, who at least has a bit of upside.

[Q_FBE]

I would like to play out the season with who we have and go after the Atlantic Division Title. If Jermaine Oneal and Marquis Daniels for Chris Kaman deal is available, do that. I am not in favor of touching the big 4 until the season is over.  

[PosImpos]

All your plan does is sign us up to bottom-tier playoff mediocrity (6-8th seed) for the next 2-3 seasons.

In other words, it just wastes years of Rondo's prime while putting off the necessary rebuilding effort.  If we're going to keep Rondo and we want to turn this team into a contender again before Rondo is in his mid-30's, the rebuilding process has to start as soon as this season is over, if not sooner.

I think this team is at a crucial cross-roads that turns on one key question: Keep Rondo, or don't keep Rondo?

If the answer is no, then you either completely rebuild while trading him for assets that help you do that, or you trade him for pieces that will better fit with the Big 3 and help you win now.

If the answer is yes -- and all things considered I think it is -- then you look to start rebuilding with an eye to acquiring players that are young, athletic, and good at getting out on the break.  In other words, players that will fit Rondo's style.  Rebuilding with Rondo will still require that the team gets a true #1 guy who can carry the team offensively -- in essence, the player Pierce once was (and still is at times).


Any way you cut it, there's no sense in holding onto the same core group and surrounding them with complementary pieces, because at this point they can't compete talent-wise with the best teams in the conference -- and they're declining more every day.  Furthermore, as the Big 3 get older, they get slower and less athletic, which means more and more the style of play that suits them best is opposite to the style of play that fits the team's best player -- Rondo.

The only reason that any team ever has to keep the core group of their team the same from season to season is either that they believe the core group is going to improve over time, or that they truly believe they have a chance to win a championship as long as they can surround that core group with the right pieces.  At this point, the Celtics have a core group that is only getting worse over time, and that I think most would agree is no longer capable of true championship contention, particularly now that the East is so much stronger at the top than it used to be.  Hence, it makes no sense to hold onto this group after this season.

[ChiefDK]

All your plan does is sign us up to bottom-tier playoff mediocrity (6-8th seed) for the next 2-3 seasons.

In other words, it just wastes years of Rondo's prime while putting off the necessary rebuilding effort.  If we're going to keep Rondo and we want to turn this team into a contender again before Rondo is in his mid-30's, the rebuilding process has to start as soon as this season is over, if not sooner.

I think this team is at a crucial cross-roads that turns on one key question: Keep Rondo, or don't keep Rondo?

If the answer is no, then you either completely rebuild while trading him for assets that help you do that, or you trade him for pieces that will better fit with the Big 3 and help you win now.

If the answer is yes -- and all things considered I think it is -- then you look to start rebuilding with an eye to acquiring players that are young, athletic, and good at getting out on the break.  In other words, players that will fit Rondo's style.  Rebuilding with Rondo will still require that the team gets a true #1 guy who can carry the team offensively -- in essence, the player Pierce once was (and still is at times).


Any way you cut it, there's no sense in holding onto the same core group and surrounding them with complementary pieces, because at this point they can't compete talent-wise with the best teams in the conference -- and they're declining more every day.  Furthermore, as the Big 3 get older, they get slower and less athletic, which means more and more the style of play that suits them best is opposite to the style of play that fits the team's best player -- Rondo.

The only reason that any team ever has to keep the core group of their team the same from season to season is either that they believe the core group is going to improve over time, or that they truly believe they have a chance to win a championship as long as they can surround that core group with the right pieces.  At this point, the Celtics have a core group that is only getting worse over time, and that I think most would agree is no longer capable of true championship contention, particularly now that the East is so much stronger at the top than it used to be.  Hence, it makes no sense to hold onto this group after this season.

My biggest concern is that the Cs will spend foolishly (though I think Ainge is smarter now)just because they have loads of cap room. If a high impact player can't be acquired, and this offseason it's just Dwight and Deron, I don't have a problem with them using the 12-13 season as a stop gap season so they can try again during the '13 offseason.

You make a good point about Rondo - you don't want to waste his prime years. If they fail to acquire a high impact free agent this offseason or next, he should definitely be traded so a full rebuild can be expedited.

[More Banners]

I think it will take a huge talent infusion of some sort to keep us in the mix, but it might not have to be a superduper star.  Two talented athletic players who can run, score, and rebound on reasonable deals could totally rock our rotation.  I don't think this group looks bad for 2 more years:

Rondo/Bradley/Moore
Pierce/Ray
JGreen/1st/1st
Beasley/Bass/JJJ
KG/Wilcox/Steimsma

[ChiefDK]

I think it will take a huge talent infusion of some sort to keep us in the mix, but it might not have to be a superduper star.  Two talented athletic players who can run, score, and rebound on reasonable deals could totally rock our rotation.  I don't think this group looks bad for 2 more years:

Rondo/Bradley/Moore
Pierce/Ray
JGreen/1st/1st
Beasley/Bass/JJJ
KG/Wilcox/Steimsma

Problem is that's probably a 43-47 win team..no man's land in the NBA.

[More Banners]

I think it will take a huge talent infusion of some sort to keep us in the mix, but it might not have to be a superduper star.  Two talented athletic players who can run, score, and rebound on reasonable deals could totally rock our rotation.  I don't think this group looks bad for 2 more years:

Rondo/Bradley/Moore
Pierce/Ray
JGreen/1st/1st
Beasley/Bass/JJJ
KG/Wilcox/Steimsma

Problem is that's probably a 43-47 win team..no man's land in the NBA.

That's certainly one possibility.

On the bright side, there's an allstar PG, all-NBA defense at Center in KG, and Pierce, Green, and Beasley that can each average 15-18ppg.  The starting unit can be counted on for close to 70 points per night.

The bench offers Bradley's defense and 20ft jumper, the running and rebounding of Wilcox and Ray and Bass' half-court execution.  IF either JJJ or one of this year's picks turns into something for the rotation, we're pretty good, athletic, and deep with Rondo on the break and Doc's plays in the half-court.

It's not a bad plan B.

[Chris]

I think it's a solid enough plan, with the exception of this part:

Use cap room to acquire good rebounding center (Chris Kaman perhaps on a 3 year deal for $8-9m per)

Eating up $8 to $9 million on Chris Kaman would be a very poor idea, in my mind.  He's going to be 30 in a couple of months, and more importantly, he's just been a huge injury risk.  He's missed 26+ games in three of the four years prior to this one.  Additionally, he's been a pretty mediocre defender, and his offense this year has been pretty putrid, shooting 41% from the floor.

If the team wants to overpay for Chris Kaman or any other free agent on a one year deal, fantastic.  However, if we're going to eat into future years, I'd like to use the cap on an impact player who can be part of the rebuilding effort once the big three move on.  That player isn't Kaman.

I knew that move would draw some criticism. You're probably right 3 years to a player like that is a good way to shoot one's self in the foot. Who could they get to fill the middle on a temporary basis? Not sure if Kaman can be had on a one year deal.

Yeah, the "who do we sign" issue is the biggest one, when a semi-scrub like Kwame Brown makes $7 million on a one-year deal.  There aren't a lot of good options, but if we're going to go three years, I'd try to get somebody like Spencer Hawes, who at least has a bit of upside.

I love Spencer Hawes, and he would be my #1 target this summer if we can't get Howard/Williams.  Unfortunately, I think it will be very tough to sign him for anything reasonable, since I believe he will be restricted.

[PosImpos]

I think it will take a huge talent infusion of some sort to keep us in the mix, but it might not have to be a superduper star.  Two talented athletic players who can run, score, and rebound on reasonable deals could totally rock our rotation.  I don't think this group looks bad for 2 more years:

Rondo/Bradley/Moore
Pierce/Ray
JGreen/1st/1st
Beasley/Bass/JJJ
KG/Wilcox/Steimsma

Problem is that's probably a 43-47 win team..no man's land in the NBA.

That's certainly one possibility.

On the bright side, there's an allstar PG, all-NBA defense at Center in KG, and Pierce, Green, and Beasley that can each average 15-18ppg.  The starting unit can be counted on for close to 70 points per night.

The bench offers Bradley's defense and 20ft jumper, the running and rebounding of Wilcox and Ray and Bass' half-court execution.  IF either JJJ or one of this year's picks turns into something for the rotation, we're pretty good, athletic, and deep with Rondo on the break and Doc's plays in the half-court.

It's not a bad plan B.

I think you're overestimating how good that team would be.  I don't think the pieces fit that well together (awkward mix of young and really old), and I think the team would lack efficient scoring.

Like ChiefDK said, the team would be a 6-8 seeded team, first or second round out.  No man's land.

[Change]

I think it will take a huge talent infusion of some sort to keep us in the mix, but it might not have to be a superduper star.  Two talented athletic players who can run, score, and rebound on reasonable deals could totally rock our rotation.  I don't think this group looks bad for 2 more years:

Rondo/Bradley/Moore
Pierce/Ray
JGreen/1st/1st
Beasley/Bass/JJJ
KG/Wilcox/Steimsma

TP

I love that roster. Realistic & Doable. All its missing MICKAEL PIETRUS. How do you leave out Air-France?

[PosImpos]

I think it will take a huge talent infusion of some sort to keep us in the mix, but it might not have to be a superduper star.  Two talented athletic players who can run, score, and rebound on reasonable deals could totally rock our rotation.  I don't think this group looks bad for 2 more years:

Rondo/Bradley/Moore
Pierce/Ray
JGreen/1st/1st
Beasley/Bass/JJJ
KG/Wilcox/Steimsma

TP

I love that roster. Realistic & Doable. All its missing MICKAEL PIETRUS. How do you leave out Air-France?

That roster would be exciting to watch . . . it would be interesting to see how Beasley and Green could fit in with the rest of the roster, and think about what the ceiling for each of them could be -- or if they've reached it already.

Still, I really don't see that team as any better than the current version of the Hawks, Pacers, or Sixers.

[slamtheking]

already started a post like this yesterday

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=54098.new#new