Prediction: Danny Ainge is going to trade Paul Pierce

[syfy9]

OP can you change the thread title? It's very misleading.

[wiley]

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7z2zub6


Throw in our two first round picks this summer and this trade might not be totally unrealistic.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7qlyp48

Boston sends: Paul Pierce, Brandon Bass, Keyon Dooling and draft pick(s)
Boston receives: Josh Smith, Kirk Hinrich

Why for Boston: Smith brings in athleticism and youth to build further on with. Hinrich expiring contract gives us more cap space.

Why for Atlanta: Paul Pierce gives them playoff experience, leadership and a crunch time scorer. Brandon Bass is a solid player that can fill the open PF spot. Dooling and picks for caps space.

This would be a deal, Danny would seriously consider i guess. A  member of the big three for a young asset and more capsspace is not to bad.

With the capspace we could get a good team to lure in Howard. Resigning Jeff Green for $5-6 mio. and Ray Allen with the bird rights.

*Dream mode on*

PG: Rondo
SG: Allen
SF: Green
PF: Smith
C: Howard

And even if we dont get Howard. Having Rondo, Smith and Green (if healthy) is a good young core to build further on.

Drax' dream mode continued:  

Rondo, Bradley, Green, Smith, Howard
Heinrich, Allen, Jeff Taylor, KG, Moultrie
Moore, Pav., Steam, JJJ

Title......!

[SHAQATTACK]

I believe the trading of PP this season is highly unlikely. 

That said , he will have to go sometime sooner than latter , they all do,  if the right deal comes along Danny Will pull the trigger no doubt. (for any /all of them to develope a new team.

  BAsically the starting group needs an overhaul , even though the bench is decent backup group. I would love the starters to become the backups. I know thats a dream , oh well.

Howard is screwing up the whole process of rebuilding /reorganizing of 1/2 the NBA.  What he does will affect so many teams plans .

I just don't see ANY big deals done by anybody till the Howard thing shakes out. 

Its like a poker game with all the GM' s holding their cards and not even giving a hint of what they arte really hop ing to pull off.

When Howard finally lands..........thats when it all hits the fan...look for the Celtics to go off like a ATOM BOMB !!!

[Smokeeye123]

Yeah that worked out well for us....

We'd have a gaping hole at SF.

[ssspence]

One thing to keep in mind is that Pierce's agent, Jeff Schwartz, is also the agent for Deron Williams, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, and other superstars.  This does not mean the C's would have any advantage at signing any of these guys...but it does mean that Danny is not going to do anything to anger Pierce or his agent.

So, in other words, if Pierce is going to be traded, it will essentially be his call. 

All the more reason to pursue the Rondo for D Will trade (which the Cs should have done last year). Pierce can attest to the quality of the experience and organization in Boston. A trio of Williams, Pierce and Howard under Rivers and Ainge -- with the potential for KG and Ray to come back on the cheap -- would be awefully tempting for Howard and Williams, particularly if JJJ starts to look like a real player (with a mid-range J that compliments Howard), and considering their two 1sts this summer.

It'd basically be between Boston and Dallas for those two guys from there. Scary -- but worth the risk, no?

[Green Pride]

This thread was created before the DWill rumors. Obviously option A would be to rebuild on the fly with DWill, Pierce, and Howard. But why would DWill sign an extension if he was the only banana? 

So, if that isn't there, I still think Danny will pull the trigger on Paul Pierce.

[Jon]

The big problem with all of these trade insert-member-of-the-Big-Three ideas is that they theoretically sound good; however, whenever anyone tries to put them on paper, they fall apart. 

Quite simply, only the top tier teams are really going to want to trade for them, and they don't have much and/or can't afford to give much up and still contend. 

And trading the Big Three is really only a good idea if we're going to get a pretty big piece for the future.  Otherwise, we're likely only getting role players and late first round draft picks that likely won't be around after the rebuilding process anyway. 

If Danny can pull off a miracle, great.  But I wouldn't hold my breath. 

[Neurotic Guy]

I think Danny's best strategy is to sit near the phone, let it ring a few times, and casually answer. 

My meaning here is that he should see the C's in a position of strength in that they really don't need to trade anyone.  They likely end up in a comparable position whether they work a trade or not.   If you start calling around, I think psychologically you've put yourself in a less enviable bargaining position. Best to let the phone ring.  Let another team express interest and allow yourself to be in the position of proposing a counter offer if the initial offer is intriguing enough. Team GMs are smart -- they know who is on the C's roster, they know the salary implications and they know their own team's needs/wants.  Let them come to us feeling like they need PP to put them over the top.

And with this approach Danny can honestly respond to 'Danny's shopping X' conversations and reduce internal issues around players feeling like they are on the block.

[celtiberian]

... But my guess is that come March 16th, we will have a very different roster than we do today.

I don't think they will - nor they will have to - trade RR next month. They team rebuilding is planned to be done, calmly, for the offseason. They probably didn't have any hight expectation from this season, which is like a farewell for the 2008 era.

I'm throwing some numbers for a possible scenario. The actual roster total salary is $79.5MM (source: Hoopsworld, this is without counting Wallace and Shaq sort of severance wages). From the actual roster, only 6 players have contracts for next season: RR, PP, JJJ, EM, AB and BB. These contracts amount globally for $35.5MM so this leaves 8-9 spots and $44MM open, supposing the next year they will pay the same amount of money as of this season.

From the other current staff, if they resign RA and KG for the kind of money JO made this year, this will cost another $10MM. And of course, JO will go home, does not matter how little money he is willing to play for.

If they can resign CW, GS and MP for the same kind of money they made this year plus the 20%, this will amount for another $6MM. In my opinion, they won't offer anything to KD, SP and MD.

So far, we have 11 players: 4 G, 6 F and 1 C, and we have spent from the original $79.5MM:
$35.5MM plus $10MM plus $6MM = $51.5MM

This leaves them with 3-4 free spots in the roster and $79.5MM minus $51.5MM = $28MM available to spend in new contracts.

Then, with $28MM, they will have a very good chance of making a shot for a way above average Center player plus two other good players. For reference, this is what top centers around the league will make (according to actual contracts) for next season:
Chandler $13.6MM,
Bynum $16.1MM,
Noah $11.3MM,
Mark Gasol $13.9MM.

This below is the list of Center players in free agency at the end of this season (source: Hoopsworld):

Center (name, team – 2011-12 salary – status)

Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic – $18.1 million – Early Termination Option ($19.5 million)
Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers – $2.6 million – Restricted ($3.7 million Qualifying Offer)
Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers – $14.9 million – Team Option ($16.1 million)
Brook Lopez, New Jersey Nets – $3.1 million – Restricted ($4.2 million Qualifying Offer)
Chris Kaman, New Orleans Hornets – $12.7 million – Unrestricted
JaVale McGee, Washington Wizards – $2.5 million – Restricted ($3.5 million Qualifying Offer)
Marcus Camby, Portland Trail Blazers – $12.9 million – Unrestricted
Spencer Hawes, Philadelphia 76ers – $4.1 million – Unrestricted
Kwame Brown, Golden State Warriors – $6.8 million – Unrestricted
Aaron Gray, Toronto Raptors – $2.5 million – Unrestricted
Robin Lopez, Phoenix Suns – $2.8 million – Restricted ($4.0 million Qualifying Offer)
Jermaine O’Neal, Boston Celtics – $6.2 million – Unrestricted
Nazr Mohammed, Oklahoma City Thunder – $3.8 million – Unrestricted
Omer Asik, Chicago Bulls – $1.9 million – Unrestricted*
Semih Erden, Cleveland Cavaliers – $0.8 million – Unrestricted*
Ben Wallace, Detroit Pistons – $2.2 million – Unrestricted
Hamed Haddadi, Memphis Grizzlies – $1.3 million – Unrestricted
Mehmet Okur, New Jersey Nets – $10.9 million – Unrestricted
Jeff Foster, Indiana Pacers – $3.0 million – Unrestricted
Greg Stiemsma, Boston Celtics – $0.5 million – Unrestricted*
Daniel Orton, Orlando Magic – $1.1 million – Unrestricted*
Solomon Alabi, Toronto Raptors – $0.8 million – Team Option ($0.9 million)
Hasheem Thabeet, Houston Rockets – $5.1 million – Unrestricted*
DeSagana Diop, Charlotte Bobcats – $6.9 million – Player Option ($7.4 million)
Ryan Hollins, Cleveland Cavaliers – $2.5 million – Unrestricted
Jason Collins, Atlanta Haws – $1.3 million – Unrestricted
Eddy Curry, Miami HEAT – $1.2 million – Unrestricted
Tony Battie, Philadelphia 76ers – $1.3 million – Unrestricted
Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers – $1.5 million – Unrestricted
Jamaal Magloire, Toronto Raptors – $1.3 million – Unrestricted
 

[Jon]

... But my guess is that come March 16th, we will have a very different roster than we do today.

I don't think they will - nor they will have to - trade RR next month. They team rebuilding is planned to be done, calmly, for the offseason. They probably didn't have any hight expectation from this season, which is like a farewell for the 2008 era.

I'm throwing some numbers for a possible scenario. The actual roster total salary is $79.5MM (source: Hoopsworld, this is without counting Wallace and Shaq sort of severance wages). From the actual roster, only 6 players have contracts for next season: RR, PP, JJJ, EM, AB and BB. These contracts amount globally for $35.5MM so this leaves 8-9 spots and $44MM open, supposing the next year they will pay the same amount of money as of this season.

From the other current staff, if they resign RA and KG for the kind of money JO made this year, this will cost another $10MM. And of course, JO will go home, does not matter how little money he is willing to play for.

If they can resign CW, GS and MP for the same kind of money they made this year plus the 20%, this will amount for another $6MM. In my opinion, they won't offer anything to KD, SP and MD.

So far, we have 11 players: 4 G, 6 F and 1 C, and we have spent from the original $79.5MM:
$35.5MM plus $10MM plus $6MM = $51.5MM

This leaves them with 3-4 free spots in the roster and $79.5MM minus $51.5MM = $28MM available to spend in new contracts.

Then, with $28MM, they will have a very good chance of making a shot for a way above average Center player plus two other good players. For reference, this is what top centers around the league will make (according to actual contracts) for next season:
Chandler $13.6MM,
Bynum $16.1MM,
Noah $11.3MM,
Mark Gasol $13.9MM.

This below is the list of Center players in free agency at the end of this season (source: Hoopsworld):

Center (name, team – 2011-12 salary – status)

Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic – $18.1 million – Early Termination Option ($19.5 million)
Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers – $2.6 million – Restricted ($3.7 million Qualifying Offer)
Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers – $14.9 million – Team Option ($16.1 million)
Brook Lopez, New Jersey Nets – $3.1 million – Restricted ($4.2 million Qualifying Offer)
Chris Kaman, New Orleans Hornets – $12.7 million – Unrestricted
JaVale McGee, Washington Wizards – $2.5 million – Restricted ($3.5 million Qualifying Offer)
Marcus Camby, Portland Trail Blazers – $12.9 million – Unrestricted
Spencer Hawes, Philadelphia 76ers – $4.1 million – Unrestricted
Kwame Brown, Golden State Warriors – $6.8 million – Unrestricted
Aaron Gray, Toronto Raptors – $2.5 million – Unrestricted
Robin Lopez, Phoenix Suns – $2.8 million – Restricted ($4.0 million Qualifying Offer)
Jermaine O’Neal, Boston Celtics – $6.2 million – Unrestricted
Nazr Mohammed, Oklahoma City Thunder – $3.8 million – Unrestricted
Omer Asik, Chicago Bulls – $1.9 million – Unrestricted*
Semih Erden, Cleveland Cavaliers – $0.8 million – Unrestricted*
Ben Wallace, Detroit Pistons – $2.2 million – Unrestricted
Hamed Haddadi, Memphis Grizzlies – $1.3 million – Unrestricted
Mehmet Okur, New Jersey Nets – $10.9 million – Unrestricted
Jeff Foster, Indiana Pacers – $3.0 million – Unrestricted
Greg Stiemsma, Boston Celtics – $0.5 million – Unrestricted*
Daniel Orton, Orlando Magic – $1.1 million – Unrestricted*
Solomon Alabi, Toronto Raptors – $0.8 million – Team Option ($0.9 million)
Hasheem Thabeet, Houston Rockets – $5.1 million – Unrestricted*
DeSagana Diop, Charlotte Bobcats – $6.9 million – Player Option ($7.4 million)
Ryan Hollins, Cleveland Cavaliers – $2.5 million – Unrestricted
Jason Collins, Atlanta Haws – $1.3 million – Unrestricted
Eddy Curry, Miami HEAT – $1.2 million – Unrestricted
Tony Battie, Philadelphia 76ers – $1.3 million – Unrestricted
Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers – $1.5 million – Unrestricted
Jamaal Magloire, Toronto Raptors – $1.3 million – Unrestricted
 

The problem is that the salary cap is in the mid 50 millions right now, not 79 million.  Thus, if we cannot sign all of our players back AND then sign free agents. 

[Chris]

One thing to keep in mind is that Pierce's agent, Jeff Schwartz, is also the agent for Deron Williams, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, and other superstars.  This does not mean the C's would have any advantage at signing any of these guys...but it does mean that Danny is not going to do anything to anger Pierce or his agent.

So, in other words, if Pierce is going to be traded, it will essentially be his call. 

All the more reason to pursue the Rondo for D Will trade (which the Cs should have done last year). Pierce can attest to the quality of the experience and organization in Boston. A trio of Williams, Pierce and Howard under Rivers and Ainge -- with the potential for KG and Ray to come back on the cheap -- would be awefully tempting for Howard and Williams, particularly if JJJ starts to look like a real player (with a mid-range J that compliments Howard), and considering their two 1sts this summer.

It'd basically be between Boston and Dallas for those two guys from there. Scary -- but worth the risk, no?

Yeah, I think a Rondo for Williams trade would be at the top of Danny's list. 

The only problem is that it wouldn't coincide with a Howard signing, because NJ would only trade Williams once Howard is traded to a team like the Lakers, so they know that there is no chance he will even hit free agency.

But yeah, if Howard is traded to a team that will resign him, I think Danny will go hard after Williams, and he would have a great chance, since I don't think any team will offer more than Rondo without Williams agreeing to not opt out...which I don't believe Danny would require.

[Celtics4ever]

We'd have a gaping hole at SF.

I got news for you if PP is traded the tank job would be on.  They would not care if they had a gaping hole at SF because losing games would be the goal for draft position.  The idea of contending (which is ludricous at this point I think) would be at the window.

[green7]

pierce for rudy gay? <...... i wouldn't doubt it but do i want it to happen? no sure

[Kiorrik]

Thought I'd change the title, since it's inaccurate enough to warrant several complaints

[byennie]

Yeah, I think a Rondo for Williams trade would be at the top of Danny's list. 

The only problem is that it wouldn't coincide with a Howard signing, because NJ would only trade Williams once Howard is traded to a team like the Lakers, so they know that there is no chance he will even hit free agency.

But yeah, if Howard is traded to a team that will resign him, I think Danny will go hard after Williams, and he would have a great chance, since I don't think any team will offer more than Rondo without Williams agreeing to not opt out...which I don't believe Danny would require.

I agree on Deron. For example, if we dealt Rondo for Deron with the requirement that Deron pick up his player option, we are adding about $7M to our cap number next year. Deal Pierce for Nocioni + Turner (assuming Philly thinks this helps them contend this year and next). Takes $11M back off.

Now we're at about $29M cap room, with Deron, Bradley, Turner, JJJ, 2 1st rounders. Even if Deron is the only starter in that mix, we have enough money to sign Dwight, and possibly have $12M for Green and Garnett (or some other combination of veterans).

Our defense would be insanely good if Garnett could come back and still "D" up for another year, we'd be very young (mostly younger than Howard), and I think any team with Deron, Howard and some energy is going to score.

Deron / Bradley
1st rounder / Bradley
Turner / Jeff Green
Garnett / JJJ
Howard / Stiemsma

+ 1st rounder