Kendrick Perkins Struggling (Danny should say "I told you so")

[Fafnir]

You understand that they're at the top of the league offensively in spite of Perkins right? They score 8 more points per 48 minutes when he's off the court.

They give up 8 less points per 100 possessions when he's on the court as well.

Even struggling he's been a contributor on that end of the court, if/when he recovers and makes a positive impact on the boards I think he'll become big positive to their team again.

[BballTim]

They're at the top of the league offensively, even though their four bigs only average 20 ppg on 16 shots.  They grab 20 rpg combined too.  This is not your conventional team, but one metric is eye popping - the 20-5 record.  

I love the "fans" who say - "Hey, the guy's numbers are terrible but it's okay, they're winning and you don't watch enough of Thunder games." I have seen plenty of OKC games this year. Perkins hasn't been impressive and the numbers bear that out.

You understand that they're at the top of the league offensively in spite of Perkins right? They score 8 more points per 48 minutes when he's off the court.

Just to recap:

Perkins has been a terrible rebounder this year. That is empirical fact. He has a rebounding rate of 11.7 - which is definitely the worst of his career - and terrible for anybody. So he's been a bad rebounder. We've already established that his blocks have been below his career average. That's fact.

He has a PER of 6.4. Yes, 6.4, among the league's worst at his amount of minutes. That's okay, some of you don't like PER as a stat. So those of you that like Perkins can disregard.
 His WS/48 are at .21. Okay, some of you don't like these metrics - fine...

Offensively, he's shooting 45% from the field. For his career, 45%. At some point, you can't ignore how poorly he's played.

But before Perkins arrived with OKC, he was known as a good rebounder, shot clock and defender - and not a liability offensively.

Now, he can't rebound, block shots or play offense. I'm supposed to get excited because he sets good picks? So he's Brian Scalabrine?

The difference is - Perkins is getting a paid a whole lot of money to underperform and the Thunder are winning in spite of him.

  There's always that rare possibility that the Thunder realize that they have plenty of offense on that team and doesn't want to be like those Suns team that score like there's no tomorrow and then fall short in the playoffs when the other teams ratchet up the defense. Those numbers don't really refute anyone's argument because nobody's arguing that he's playing great offense for the Thunder. Unfortunately, they don't refute the argument that he's important to their defense.

[soap07]

 There's always that rare possibility that the Thunder realize that they have plenty of offense on that team and doesn't want to be like those Suns team that score like there's no tomorrow and then fall short in the playoffs when the other teams ratchet up the defense. Those numbers don't really refute anyone's argument because nobody's arguing that he's playing great offense for the Thunder. Unfortunately, they don't refute the argument that he's important to their defense.

Yeah, that's cool. We can also ignore the poor rebounding and shot blocking.

Oh, by the way, you reference "those Suns teams that sore like there's no tomorrow and then fall short in the playoffs when the other teams ratchet up the offense."

In 2006-2007, the Suns won 61 games and lost in 6 games to the Spurs in the 2nd round. Their defense was 16th. This year's Thunder team? 15th. In 2007-2008, when the Suns lost in the 1st found and won 55 games, the defensive was 17th.

 The point being - the Thunder, even with Perkins as the "defensive anchor" isn't actually a very good defensive team and on the same level of those Suns teams. Yes, Perkins helps when he's on the court for his 25 or so minutes. But the fact is - he's just too deficient in too many areas of the game to stay on the court for more than 25 minutes and therefore, isn't really all that helpful to the Thunder team.

And also, he got a giant extension that is already not worth it.

[Inside-Out]

Can't really assess who "wins" a trade until all the chips fall.  It wasn't a trade to help either team immediately due to Perk's injury and the draft pick involved.  The Jeff Green health situation and likelihood of his returning to the court in Green is a huge factor, too.

So we'll have to wait until at least mid-season next year to see how the draft pick evolves (or is flipped) and JGreen comes around.  By then, OKC should know pretty well how they feel about Perk post-injury, too.

My money is on the Celtics in this one, though.  We've got more shots with the pick plus JG, who should be a 18/5/3 guy easily at SF, and at this point, probably for a very reasonable contract.

[wdleehi]

Can't really assess who "wins" a trade until all the chips fall.  It wasn't a trade to help either team immediately due to Perk's injury and the draft pick involved.  The Jeff Green health situation and likelihood of his returning to the court in Green is a huge factor, too.

So we'll have to wait until at least mid-season next year to see how the draft pick evolves (or is flipped) and JGreen comes around.  By then, OKC should know pretty well how they feel about Perk post-injury, too.

My money is on the Celtics in this one, though.  We've got more shots with the pick plus JG, who should be a 18/5/3 guy easily at SF, and at this point, probably for a very reasonable contract.

I think the Thunder already know and are happy with their return.  The team has been a better team since the trade. 

[Inside-Out]

Can't really assess who "wins" a trade until all the chips fall.  It wasn't a trade to help either team immediately due to Perk's injury and the draft pick involved.  The Jeff Green health situation and likelihood of his returning to the court in Green is a huge factor, too.

So we'll have to wait until at least mid-season next year to see how the draft pick evolves (or is flipped) and JGreen comes around.  By then, OKC should know pretty well how they feel about Perk post-injury, too.

My money is on the Celtics in this one, though.  We've got more shots with the pick plus JG, who should be a 18/5/3 guy easily at SF, and at this point, probably for a very reasonable contract.

I think the Thunder already know and are happy with their return.  The team has been a better team since the trade. 

True.  That doesn't mean we won't be happy with our return as well, though.  It's just worked out, quite unfortunately, that we have to wait a year to find out what we're going to have. 

It's a good sign that JG seems very happy in Boston and with the franchise.  With the cap as it is, the hard part about building teams going forward will be to get players on decent deals so the roster won't be top heavy.  With Rondo and presumably Green on decent deals plus two 1sts, JJJ, Bradley, and Moore all on rookie deals, we should be in pretty good shape.

[dtrader]

Can't really assess who "wins" a trade until all the chips fall.  It wasn't a trade to help either team immediately due to Perk's injury and the draft pick involved.  The Jeff Green health situation and likelihood of his returning to the court in Green is a huge factor, too.

So we'll have to wait until at least mid-season next year to see how the draft pick evolves (or is flipped) and JGreen comes around.  By then, OKC should know pretty well how they feel about Perk post-injury, too.

My money is on the Celtics in this one, though.  We've got more shots with the pick plus JG, who should be a 18/5/3 guy easily at SF, and at this point, probably for a very reasonable contract.

I think the Thunder already know and are happy with their return.  The team has been a better team since the trade. 

Theyve been better since the trade, but I think it would be easier to argue that it's due to the increased minutes and steady improvement of Harden, or the emergence of serge ibaka, than Perkins.  They gained more by removing Jeff Green from their rotation, than they did by adding Perk.  Nazr and Collison both outplay Perk...no one else on their team does what harden and ibaka do.

[wdleehi]

Can't really assess who "wins" a trade until all the chips fall.  It wasn't a trade to help either team immediately due to Perk's injury and the draft pick involved.  The Jeff Green health situation and likelihood of his returning to the court in Green is a huge factor, too.

So we'll have to wait until at least mid-season next year to see how the draft pick evolves (or is flipped) and JGreen comes around.  By then, OKC should know pretty well how they feel about Perk post-injury, too.

My money is on the Celtics in this one, though.  We've got more shots with the pick plus JG, who should be a 18/5/3 guy easily at SF, and at this point, probably for a very reasonable contract.

I think the Thunder already know and are happy with their return.  The team has been a better team since the trade. 

Theyve been better since the trade, but I think it would be easier to argue that it's due to the increased minutes and steady improvement of Harden, or the emergence of serge ibaka, than Perkins.  They gained more by removing Jeff Green from their rotation, than they did by adding Perk.  Nazr and Collison both outplay Perk...no one else on their team does what harden and ibaka do.

If those two have outplayed Perk, why is Perk still starting?  Why is the team better defensively when he is on the court?

[BudweiserCeltic]

Can't really assess who "wins" a trade until all the chips fall.  It wasn't a trade to help either team immediately due to Perk's injury and the draft pick involved.  The Jeff Green health situation and likelihood of his returning to the court in Green is a huge factor, too.

So we'll have to wait until at least mid-season next year to see how the draft pick evolves (or is flipped) and JGreen comes around.  By then, OKC should know pretty well how they feel about Perk post-injury, too.

My money is on the Celtics in this one, though.  We've got more shots with the pick plus JG, who should be a 18/5/3 guy easily at SF, and at this point, probably for a very reasonable contract.

I think the Thunder already know and are happy with their return.  The team has been a better team since the trade. 

Theyve been better since the trade, but I think it would be easier to argue that it's due to the increased minutes and steady improvement of Harden, or the emergence of serge ibaka, than Perkins.  They gained more by removing Jeff Green from their rotation, than they did by adding Perk.  Nazr and Collison both outplay Perk...no one else on their team does what harden and ibaka do.

If those two have outplayed Perk, why is Perk still starting?  Why is the team better defensively when he is on the court?

Why does KG and JO start when Wilcox and Bass out play them, particularly in JO's case?

[wdleehi]

Can't really assess who "wins" a trade until all the chips fall.  It wasn't a trade to help either team immediately due to Perk's injury and the draft pick involved.  The Jeff Green health situation and likelihood of his returning to the court in Green is a huge factor, too.

So we'll have to wait until at least mid-season next year to see how the draft pick evolves (or is flipped) and JGreen comes around.  By then, OKC should know pretty well how they feel about Perk post-injury, too.

My money is on the Celtics in this one, though.  We've got more shots with the pick plus JG, who should be a 18/5/3 guy easily at SF, and at this point, probably for a very reasonable contract.

I think the Thunder already know and are happy with their return.  The team has been a better team since the trade. 

Theyve been better since the trade, but I think it would be easier to argue that it's due to the increased minutes and steady improvement of Harden, or the emergence of serge ibaka, than Perkins.  They gained more by removing Jeff Green from their rotation, than they did by adding Perk.  Nazr and Collison both outplay Perk...no one else on their team does what harden and ibaka do.

If those two have outplayed Perk, why is Perk still starting?  Why is the team better defensively when he is on the court?

Why does KG and JO start when Wilcox and Bass out play them, particularly in JO's case?

I am still waiting to see KG outplayed defensively.


And Doc tried Bass starting over JO.  Didn't work out.  KG is better with another big body out there to play C. 

[Fafnir]

I am still waiting to see KG outplayed defensively. 

http://bkref.com/tiny/wiJJG

Forget defense, how is Bass outplaying KG in anyway?

[BballTim]

 There's always that rare possibility that the Thunder realize that they have plenty of offense on that team and doesn't want to be like those Suns team that score like there's no tomorrow and then fall short in the playoffs when the other teams ratchet up the defense. Those numbers don't really refute anyone's argument because nobody's arguing that he's playing great offense for the Thunder. Unfortunately, they don't refute the argument that he's important to their defense.

Yeah, that's cool. We can also ignore the poor rebounding and shot blocking.

  The Thunder were 13th in the league in opponents fg% at the rim last year, now they're 6th. Again, talking about blocked shots is like judging how well a point guard plays defense by the number of steals they get.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I am still waiting to see KG outplayed defensively.  

http://bkref.com/tiny/wiJJG

Forget defense, how is Bass outplaying KG in anyway?

No one said anything about outplaying, just said when they do. Like say, beginning of the season?

In any case, both are constantly outplaying JO and he's still on the starting squad. Point is, that just because someone isn't a starter, doesn't mean that it's due to them not "beating" their competition for the spot. Sometimes is as simple as a coach's whim.

In all the "if he's better, why isn't he starting" question I've always found to be an irrelevant argument to make.

[BballTim]

I am still waiting to see KG outplayed defensively.  

http://bkref.com/tiny/wiJJG

Forget defense, how is Bass outplaying KG in anyway?

No one said anything about outplaying, just said when they do. Like say, beginning of the season?

In any case, both are constantly outplaying JO and he's still on the starting squad. Point is, that just because someone isn't a starter, doesn't mean that it's due to them not "beating" their competition for the spot. Sometimes is as simple as a coach's whim.

In all the "if he's better, why isn't he starting" question I've always found to be an irrelevant argument to make.

  I'd also add that different players have different roles to play. Bass is a better scorer than JO but not a better defender or better rebounder. It's not necessarily a matter of being a better overall player, being a better fit is also important.

[GranTur]

The point most people are trying to make is that his contribution is a culture change, a toughness, championship experience, etc. Things that don't show up as much in numbers or on the floor.

The issue is that the Celtics already have these qualities instilled in the team. It was the Celtics that imparted these qualities on Perkins.


Danny made a genius move to get the best out of Perkins instead of losing him to free agency when another team was going to pay him more than the Celtics wanted to anyway.

That's what makes the Danny trade so good. Once Perkins could no longer fill the holes on-the-court, they got a young piece in Jeff Green and a first-round pick to move forward since Perkins and the Celtics couldn't agree on an amount.

That's all I'm saying.