I wouldn't be surprised to see Ray take as little as $5M next year. There won't be that many offers out there for more than the MLE, and he's already made most of the money for his career. He likes Boston and would like to retire here. Not a given, but I think he's the kind of guy who takes a home town discount if it's "only" a few million left on the table.
I agree that our flexibility may be overstated, but I think if you have:
VETERANS = Rondo, Ray, Pierce
YOUNGS = Bradley, Johnson
DRAFT PICKS = 1st rounder x 2
That's 7 guys that you expect to contribute, plus up to 2 well paid (~ 10M average) players or 1 well paid and two mid-level type guys.
So now you've got 9 guys you expect to make serious contributions, and enough young pieces to consolidate and/or go over the cap in a trade. You can fill out with this year's 2nd round pick, Stiemsma, Moore, and veteran mins. We could also make a trade or two that brings back more players and/or salary.
To me the question boils down to who are going to be our big men. With Rondo, Bradley, Ray and Pierce (and possibly Green?) we'll find our way in the backcourt. But if Garnett retires, we're left with Johnson and/or a highly paid Bass. I'm not buying the hype on Hawes - he's been a marginal player for several years, has a few big games for a hot Sixers team and now he's worth big bucks? I wouldn't be surprised if he loses his job to Vucevic! Hibbert? I expect Indiana will show him the money. Love - off the market. Howard? Well, yeah...
Maybe we should be drafting a big man, but that never comes cheap. Or maybe trade on of our picks (the lower one hopefully) for someone like Vucevic or Asik?