It's not a one year fix.

[nickagneta]

I know with the Celtics' current record being 4-8 the tendency here at Celticsblog seems to be to eschew patience and jump immediately to rebuilding. "Blow it up" for Celtics fans seems to be as popular as "Change we can believe in" was for American voters in 2008. Point being, learn from history.

Very little changed because America changed presidents and blowing it up is not going to make for a very fast return to prominence, or even the playoffs, in the NBA. If you are impatient now waiting for this very good basketball team to turn things around and get going, and they will, then you are going to hate waiting around for the next time this team makes the playoffs once they start to blow it up.

Danny Ainge is not a stupid man. He has seen how Portland, OKC, Memphis, Chicago, the Clippers and other once horrible teams have turned things around. Its through the draft, its through keeping cap space available for the correct move, its through developing talent, and its through having a bit of luck. He is not going to do what is now being called in NBA GM circles as "Pulling a Joe Dumars". He's not going to use cap space to sign mediocre talent to huge contracts they don't deserve. He's not going to sign current players that are okay to contracts well above their worth. He's not going to trade for players that don't bring anything long term to the team. He's not going to change coaches at a whim an hope that coach can turn around crappy talent into a winner.

Danny showed last year he's going to stick with Doc and believes in his ability to develop young players. He did it in the years before the Big Three and the continuity is important to Danny. Danny isn't going to trade any of the current expiring contracts for(this is the important part) non-difference making superstars that have years left on their contracts. If he can trade them for picks, that's one thing, but he won't dump them for the Andray Blatches, Joe Johnsons, Luis Scolas, or David Lees of the NBA.

Instead, if you are unhappy and impatient regarding this team, here's some advice, take a deep breath, change your expectations and get used to watching this particular team until the end of the year, because its going to be the best team we have in a Celtic uniform for years to come.

The Celtics have two draft picks in this years draft. They have Bird rights to Green, Bass(who should opt out), KG, and Ray. Next year they will have a bunch of cap space and very little to spend it on. But let's say they get lucky and land a Kevin Love. The rest of the roster is still going to be lacking severely. Pierce will be another year older and running less and less. Next year's team, even with a stud like Love will get worse.

The more likely scenario is they give contracts of very, very short length to players to fill slots and compete as they delve into the bottom of the league for 1-3 years and gather top 5 talent in the 2013-2015 drafts, hope they get lucky by getting a superstar and then trade them away for championship talent or allow them to stay together and become championship talent. Just so that we are clear, championship talent is very seldom less than 25 years old unless you are a top 25 player of all time.

So with all that said, remember, its not a one year fix. Danny isn't going to ESPN Trade Machine and trading away his dinosaurs for current superstars or even All-Star level talent. We will be worse next year and most likely worse than that the year after that and the year after that. 19-21 year old kids don't come out of college and start putting teams into a winning situation immediately. They have to develop and learn and adjust to the NBA life.

So if you are asking to have the team blown up, careful with what you wish for because if done the right way, Danny could turn this team into a solid contender in 5 years time or he could "pull a Joe Dumars" by blowing it up now and have us be mediocre or just plain bad for a decade or more.

[PosImpos]

Good post.

I too have faith in Danny to avoid pulling a Dumars.  I think much of the impetus behind calling for him to "blow up" the team right now is the fact that the draft this summer is supposedly loaded with talent, even in the late lottery, and thus getting a lottery pick could be much more valuable in terms of helping this team get back to contention sooner than a 1st or 2nd round playoff exit against a top seeded team.

You're correct in pointing out that any rebuilding process is almost certainly going to take quite a while either way, though.  Even in a best-case scenario, where the Celtics enjoy the kind of luck the Thunder have in the past few years in getting top lottery picks and having those picks turn into stars, as with the Thunder it could take 4-5 years before the team is experienced enough and cohesive enough to truly compete against the best of the best.

[lepoooo]

I agree with you, although I am still in favor of "blowing it up".

Blowing it up does not mean going after all the bad contracts of the league. Doing it this way will be a disaster.

But you can blow it up and getting short-term contracts, young players, picks in exchange. DA is not a moron, he knows all too well about building a contending team. Rebuilding start in the draft. Acquiring talents that turn into great players or great trade assets. That's what is coming.

Now, why would you wait 2013 to start rebuilding? If you can start now, going to the lotery, grabbing some young talents, why would you be stubborn and field a middle-of-the-pack team that has no chance to win a champsionship?

If you don't blow it up, it means the same result at the end (no champsionship in June) but without any good draft picks / new assets. Basically, you just waste 1 year for nostalgia sake.

And btw, don't hope for the FA to solve the rebuilding problem, there are no big names FA coming to Boston next summer (Dwight and Deron won't sign in a rebuilding team with no superstar / the RFA like Love or Gordon will be maxed out by their respective teams).

[nickagneta]

I agree with you, although I am still in favor of "blowing it up".

Blowing it up does not mean going after all the bad contracts of the league. Doing it this way will be a disaster.

But you can blow it up and getting short-term contracts, young players, picks in exchange. DA is not a moron, he knows all too well about building a contending team. Rebuilding start in the draft. Acquiring talents that turn into great players or great trade assets. That's what is coming.

Now, why would you wait 2013 to start rebuilding? If you can start now, going to the lotery, grabbing some young talents, why would you be stubborn and field a middle-of-the-pack team that has no chance to win a champsionship?

If you don't blow it up, it means the same result at the end (no champsionship in June) but without any good draft picks / new assets. Basically, you just waste 1 year for nostalgia sake.

And btw, don't hope for the FA to solve the rebuilding problem, there are no big names FA coming to Boston next summer (Dwight and Deron won't sign in a rebuilding team with no superstar / the RFA like Love or Gordon will be maxed out by their respective teams).

Why?

Because I am strictly of the belief that the only teams that are going to give you picks for O'Neal, Ray, and KG are teams that are contending and want that extra piece to put them over the top. That means picks in the lower 20s which isn't going to do the Celtics any good.

T am strictly of the belief that most other GMs aren't idiots and won't trade the Celtics young players and draft picks for expiring contracts during the season unless there is something really wrong with the player. I'm talking Beasley or Cousins type head cases. Other than that you aren't getting young talent or picks. Its not happening.

No one will trade for the amount of money and years left of Pierce's contract the way he is playing. Not happening.

That leaves Bass, Wilcox and Rondo as trade worthy assets that might net you something. Rondo isn't being traded. bass and Wilcox still can't be traded for a while and probably won't get better than a second rounder.

And I would rather have cap space going forward than clogging contracts on mediocre talent signed for years and years which might be all any trade the Celtics make might get back in return.

[SHAQATTACK]

Got to dump KG's contract , he is not worth anywhere near his pay check.  He is a legion and fun to just see on court, but the losing , and poor play is starting to get old.  Like putting an old horse out to pasture...hard to do but must be done.

The Celtics can't rebuild on the fly like the Lakers.  Its gonna take some savy drafting and trading........but the Celtics sorely need a HUGE DOSE of  *********** LUCK**************

I never seen a team so jinxed with players injuried , killed, dying , or accident prone.  

The freakin Celtics need *** LUCK*** more than anything.

[wdleehi]

Avoid the Dumars

Avoid the Knicks.  (trade old star players in the last year of their contract for lesser players with a much longer large deal)



Next year, the first thing the Celtics should try it to get the big name FA.

If that fails, consider trading some of the cap space for other teams bloated contracts (no more then a 2 year deal) with draft picks coming along with the bloated contracts.  Rebuild a base of young talent that is cheap.  From there, sign the missing piece (if the young talent is that good) or use them as a package to add the top players needed.

[wdleehi]

Got to dump KG's contract , he is not worth anywhere near his pay check.  He is a legion and fun to just see on court, but the losing , and poor play is starting to get old.  Like putting an old horse out to pasture...hard to do but must be done.

The Celtics can't rebuild on the fly like the Lakers.  Its gonna take some savy drafting and trading........but the Celtics sorely need a HUGE DOSE of  *********** LUCK**************

I never seen a team so jinxed with players injuried , killed, dying , or accident prone.  

The freakin Celtics need *** LUCK*** more than anything.

What is the point of just dumping it?

It comes off the book next year.  It will be just about impossible to trade KG and not have a left over contract the Celtics do not want past this season. 

[nickagneta]

Got to dump KG's contract , he is not worth anywhere near his pay check.  He is a legion and fun to just see on court, but the losing , and poor play is starting to get old.  Like putting an old horse out to pasture...hard to do but must be done.

The Celtics can't rebuild on the fly like the Lakers.  Its gonna take some savy drafting and trading........but the Celtics sorely need a HUGE DOSE of  *********** LUCK**************

I never seen a team so jinxed with players injuried , killed, dying , or accident prone.  

The freakin Celtics need *** LUCK*** more than anything.

What is the point of just dumping it?

It comes off the book next year.  It will be just about impossible to trade KG and not have a left over contract the Celtics do not want past this season. 

Exactly...like a minimum of $16 million in contract(s) last at least 2 or more years.

Just makes no sense. I don't get the call to blow it up now as the return on the dollar is horrid compared to just letting everyone expire and having the cap space to play during the off season when a more advantageous deal can be made due to sign and trades and the like.

[PosImpos]

Got to dump KG's contract , he is not worth anywhere near his pay check.  He is a legion and fun to just see on court, but the losing , and poor play is starting to get old.  Like putting an old horse out to pasture...hard to do but must be done.

The Celtics can't rebuild on the fly like the Lakers.  Its gonna take some savy drafting and trading........but the Celtics sorely need a HUGE DOSE of  *********** LUCK**************

I never seen a team so jinxed with players injuried , killed, dying , or accident prone. 

The freakin Celtics need *** LUCK*** more than anything.

What is the point of just dumping it?

It comes off the book next year.  It will be just about impossible to trade KG and not have a left over contract the Celtics do not want past this season. 

Exactly...like a minimum of $16 million in contract(s) last at least 2 or more years.

Just makes no sense. I don't get the call to blow it up now as the return on the dollar is horrid compared to just letting everyone expire and having the cap space to play during the off season when a more advantageous deal can be made due to sign and trades and the like.

i would say the only way that it makes sense is if we're getting a decent pick in return.  otherwise you're right, we don't really gain any advantage.  but you're also right that any team willing to trade for KG would be a contender whose pick wouldn't be worth much.

[lepoooo]

I don't think KG's contract has the kind of value for young players / picks. But Allen's?

He's old but he still has some game left and can definitely put a team over the top. I believe he is around 10 millions a year. You can work something out here.

Him, PP and Rondo have trade values.

[saltlover]

I don't think KG's contract has the kind of value for young players / picks. But Allen's?

He's old but he still has some game left and can definitely put a team over the top. I believe he is around 10 millions a year. You can work something out here.

Him, PP and Rondo have trade values.

If JO stays healthy for the next 6 weeks, then he'll have some value as well.  His salary isn't exorbitant for a rental.

Brandon Bass also should have some value.  He's been playing well.

[nickagneta]

I don't think KG's contract has the kind of value for young players / picks. But Allen's?

He's old but he still has some game left and can definitely put a team over the top. I believe he is around 10 millions a year. You can work something out here.

Him, PP and Rondo have trade values.

Pierce has 2 1/2 years and $40 million left in his contract with what appears to be a rapidly declining physical ability. Good luck get anything of value for Pierce.

Ray has value but who's going to rent him out for a year?

Miami...no picks available.
Chicago...29th or 30th in the first round for the next several years
OKC...already has Harden and Sefalosha
LAC...already has Billups though if Paul is hurt or Billups gets hurt its a possibility. It would not be a pick from this year though.

Dallas, Portland, and San Antonio because of Manu's injury might be the only ones and is a late first rounder and $10 million in contracts that removes that from the cap space for 2-3 years really worth it.

[nickagneta]

Remember people we are way over the cap as is most of the teams would would trade players to. If ray or JO or Bass or KG go, that much money is coming back and the chances of that money coming off the books right away is almost zero.

So trade those players and you might get a late pick in the first round but you bring back bad contracts as well. And by bad contracts I mean contracts of players that probably wouldn't be cracking our current rotation but have contracts lasting more than this year.

[lepoooo]

Indiana? Memphis? Portland? Denver?

Idk, but DA trading one the big 3 doesn't seem that far-fetched to me.

Btw, the whole "let's keep the cap space for next summer" argument is flawed. I'd rather pick high in the draft than gambling everything on some FA who are not signing in Boston anyway.

Do you think Howard is gonna sign in Boston next summer? I don't! (and he is the only big name FA next summer with D-Will). There are several other teams built to win in the next few years that can sign him (Clippers, Mavs with D-Will+Howard+Dirk, Lakers why not, Nets in NY...). Why only think about cap space when it's so obvious that there are no marquee FA next summer willing to sign in Boston?

[letsgoblue86]

I don't think KG's contract has the kind of value for young players / picks. But Allen's?

He's old but he still has some game left and can definitely put a team over the top. I believe he is around 10 millions a year. You can work something out here.

Him, PP and Rondo have trade values.

Pierce has 2 1/2 years and $40 million left in his contract with what appears to be a rapidly declining physical ability. Good luck get anything of value for Pierce.

Ray has value but who's going to rent him out for a year?

Miami...no picks available.
Chicago...29th or 30th in the first round for the next several years
OKC...already has Harden and Sefalosha
LAC...already has Billups though if Paul is hurt or Billups gets hurt its a possibility. It would not be a pick from this year though.

Dallas, Portland, and San Antonio because of Manu's injury might be the only ones and is a late first rounder and $10 million in contracts that removes that from the cap space for 2-3 years really worth it.

Ray Allen to Chicago for Ronnie Brewer, Jimmy Butler, and picks?