In the wake of the Celtics’ slow start to the 2011-2012 season (currently 4-5), there has been a great deal of shock, disappointment, and general doom and gloom among Celtics fans. With three upcoming games against likely playoff teams, it is not at all unlikely that the Celtics, who have yet to beat a likely playoff team this season, could be sitting at 4-8 by next Tuesday. If that is indeed the case, the level of panic and hysteria on these forums could very well be off the charts (if indeed they aren’t already).
Yet when I think about it, I can’t help coming to the conclusion that the disappointment and shock in response to the season thus far can be attributed primarily to the disparity between fan expectations based on an idealized perception of the roster and a more realistic set of expectations for the team based on the actual current state of the roster relative to other teams in the league. Such a disparity is only exacerbated by the special circumstances of this shortened season compared to a normal regular season with a training camp and preseason of normal length. I’m far from the most optimistic of fans, but I must admit that even I have fallen prey to this to some degree.
With that theory in mind, I am going to undertake a more objective look at the current Celtics roster, basing such an evaluation on recent performance of the individual players, and their current strengths and weaknesses, while mostly ignoring past achievements, abilities, and team records.
Roster:
Rajon Rondo
Point Guard
6’1’’ 186 lbs
2010-2011 Season Stats:
10.6 ppg, 11.2 apg, 4.4 rpg, 2.3 stl, .479 fg%, .233 3p%, .568 ft%
Previous 3 Seasons Averages:
12.06 ppg, 9.73 apg, 4.7 rpg, 2.17 stl, .496 fg%, .253 3p%, .610 ft%
Career Averages:
10.8 ppg, 7.6 apg, 4.4 rpg, 1.9 st;, .487 fg%, .247 3p%, .621 ft%
Average Games Played / Missed Last 3 Seasons:
76 games played (6 missed)
Role / Analysis:
Rondo is the floor general of the team, playing a very large role in facilitating the offense, and this is reflected in his assist numbers. He’s also a ballhawk, which is reflected in his steals, and though he does not score very much, he does so relatively efficiently, having a high fg% for a point guard. He lacks a credible outside game, though, as his 3 point numbers are awful. His free throw numbers are also abysmal for a guard. He’s very reliable, considering the consistency of his numbers from season to season and the fact that he only misses a handful of games each season.
Rondo is young and his scoring and assist numbers have generally gone up with each season, with the exception of his scoring last season, which regressed somewhat (with a corresponding jump in assists, however). His rebounding and steals numbers have remained fairly consistent on a per-minute basis. It would be reasonable to expect a modest but significant increase in his scoring this season.
Ray Allen
Shooting Guard
6’5’’ 205 lbs
2010-2011 Season Stats:
16.5 ppg, 2.7 apg, 3.4 rpg, 1.0 stl, .491 fg%, .444 3p%, .881 ft%
Previous 3 Seasons Averages:
17.0 ppg, 2.7 apg, 3.37 rpg, .9 stl, .483 fg%, .405 3p%, .915 ft%
Career Averages:
20.2 ppg, 3.6 apg, 4.2 rpg, 1.2 stl, .453 fg%, .400 3p%, .893 ft%
Average Games Played / Missed Last 3 Seasons:
80 games played (2 missed)
Role / Analysis:
The main impression of Allen is that he is an astoundingly accurate shooter, putting up extremely consistent and very high percentages in all categories. He doesn’t contribute much in the way of rebounds, assists, or steals, but he is a very efficient scorer. He’s also incredibly durable despite his age, hardly missing any games. Allen is a very good complementary scorer, though it is unclear from the numbers alone if he could be expected to carry a larger load offensively and still maintain the same level of efficiency. Ray saw a fairly significant drop in his free throw attempts per game (from 3.2 to 2.7) last season, indicating he’s going inside less often, which makes sense given his age and role on the team.
Allen is getting up there in age, so a drop-off would normally be expected; however, he hasn’t shown a great deal of decline in the last couple of years, and considering the excellent shape he’s kept himself in and the durability he’s shown, it’s not out of the question that he would stay at close to the same level he’s been in recent years. Still, father time is waiting in the wings, and a precipitous decline would not be a shocker, either.
Paul Pierce
Small Forward
6’7’’ 235 lbs
2010-2011 Season Stats:
18.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.0 stl, .497 fg%, .374 3p%, .860 ft%
Previous 3 Seasons Averages:
19.23 ppg, 5.13 rpg, 3.33 apg, 1.07 stl, .475 fg%, .393 3p%, .847 ft%
Career Averages:
22.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.5 stl, .448 fg%, .370 3p%, .805 ft%
Average Games Played / Missed Last 3 Seasons:
77 games played (5 missed)
Role / Analysis:
Pierce is clearly a top scoring option, averaging just under 20 ppg for the last few seasons, doing so quite efficiently for somebody who takes a lot of jumpers. He’s also a great shooter, overshadowed on the team only by Ray Allen. He contributes on the boards pretty well for his size, and adds some assists as well. Like Allen and Rondo, Pierce has been quite durable as well as very consistent. Still, as with Allen, his age has to be a concern, and a significant and relatively swift decline would not be entirely unexpected. It’s worth noting that Pierce’s free throw attempts have steadily declined over the past few seasons, meaning he isn’t getting to the rim and drawing fouls as often.
Kevin Garnett
Power Forward
6’11’’ 253 lbs
2010-2011 Season Stats:
14.9 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.4 apg, .8 bpg, 1.3 stl, .528 fg%, .862 ft%
Previous 3 Seasons Averages:
15 ppg, 8.23 rpg, 2.53 apg, .933 bpg, 1.0 stl, .527 fg%, .847 ft%
Career Averages:
19.5 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.5 bpg, 1.3 stl, .498 fg%, .844 ft%
Average Games Played / Missed Last 3 Seasons:
66 games played (16 missed)
Role / Analysis:
Of the Big 3, Garnett has seen the most significant decline over the past few years, which can probably be attributed in large part to the knee injury which cost him the second half of the ’08-’09 season. He doesn’t rebound, assist, or block shots like he used to, but he still gets in passing lanes, scores with pretty good efficiency for a jump-shooting big man, and is great at the free throw line. However, his free throw attempts the past few seasons, when compared to his career averages (under 3 attempts a game the last 3 seasons compared to 4.8 for his career) are indicative of his gradual exodus away from the basket. Garnett is still a reliable offensive option, but his steady decline in scoring, coupled with his disappearing inside game and decreasing durability, suggest that he is a complementary scorer at best.
Nevertheless, Garnett’s greatest contributions come outside of the box score, since he still has an enormous intangible effect on the team defense. The fact that he’s lost a step (and much of his lift) since his knee injury can’t be ignored when considering his on-ball defense, however. At this point in his career, Garnett can be expected to miss a significant number of games, as he has missed an average of 16 games (almost 20%) the past few seasons.
Given his age and the number of years he’s been in the league, it would be reasonable to expect Garnett to continue to decline, and as with Pierce and Allen, a sudden drop-off in any area other than his free throw percentages would not come as a great shock.
Jermaine O’Neal
Center
6’11’’ 255 lbs
2010-2011 Season Stats:
5.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.3 bpg, .459 fg%, .674 ft%
Previous 3 Seasons Averages:
10.83 ppg, 5.03 rpg, 1.57 bpg, .487 fg%, .734 ft%
Career Averages:
13.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg, .465 fg%, .711 ft%
Average Games Played / Missed Last 3 Seasons:
54 games played (28 missed)
Role / Analysis:
Right away, it’s important to note that a major explanation for the statistical cliff off of which Jermaine has fallen in the last season or so is the amount of minutes he’s playing. Two seasons ago he was playing 28 minutes per game; last season he only played 18. Still, that alone isn’t an adequate explanation. Jermaine could hardly get on or stay on the court last season; his free throw percentage and his free throw attempts took a nose dive, as did his rebounding. Most of all, his scoring was more than cut in half – and he finished at a much lower percentage. He ranked behind guys like Nenad Krstic and Channing Frye for rebounds per 48 minutes, and behind guys like Johan Petro, Big Z, and Ryan Hollins for points per 48. In short, Jermaine was awful.
Now, given that Jermaine was not nearly this bad just two seasons ago, and he was dealing with injuries, there’s some cause for cautious optimism with him moving forward. However, he hasn’t exactly been a picture of health even before last season, missing a combined 26 games the previous two seasons. The bottom line is that Jermaine has been in decline for a while now – the only thing that’s remained somewhat constant is his blocks.
While we might be able to expect slightly higher scoring and rebounding averages from him this season, as well as a return to somewhat better free throw shooting, it would be foolish to expect much else – indeed, it’s more likely that Jermaine will continue to show precipitous decline, given his age and the fact that he’s been in the league since he was a teenager. It’s also likely that he’ll miss at least a third of the season.
Starting Lineup Analysis:
The first thing that jumps out at me is the lack of scoring. If you add up what the starters did last year in terms of scoring, you only get around 66 points. Even if you assume that Rondo will improve his scoring average a few points, and Jermaine shows some modest improvement (1 or 2 points), you’re still probably talking about 70 points from the starters max, especially considering that KG will likely continue to decline as a scorer, and it’s unlikely that Pierce or Allen will increase their averages from last year. This lack of scoring from the starting unit puts a lot of pressure on the bench to produce – the team probably needs to get over 30 points a night from the bench just to get to 100 points.
Another glaring issue is the lack of rebounding. In the starting lineup, only Pierce and Rondo are above average rebounders for their position, and neither spends much time near the basket. Garnett, once the most dominant rebounder in the league, is now probably an average rebounder when he’s healthy, but he doesn’t seem to be fully healthy very often. Also, despite being a solid defensive rebounder, Garnett is an awful offensive rebounder at this stage in his career. Indeed, the only good offensive rebounder in the starting lineup is Rondo.
Still, the starting lineup should once again be very solid defensively, although Garnett will likely continue to show significant decline in his ability to defend quick forwards due to having lost a step. Pierce and Allen are both good offensive options even at this advanced stage, but both are primarily jumpshooters who rarely get to the line. Also, the fact that they are jumpshooters in their mid-thirties (and this applies to Garnett as well), means that they will be prone to cold streaks, particularly late in games. Rondo has shown an ability to take on a greater scoring load at times, but hasn’t been able to keep it going consistently for long stretches of time, which explains his fairly low scoring averages over his career. His lack of outside shooting and poor free throw shooting severely limits his ability to break out as a top offensive option for the team, not to mention the fact that it doesn’t seem to be in his makeup as a player to want to be a go-to guy (much like Garnett).
The reliance on jumpshooting from the team’s top two scoring options (Allen and Pierce) wouldn’t be as much of an issue if it weren’t for the utter lack of an inside scoring threat. Nobody in the starting lineup, at this point in his career, is a reliable inside scorer. Neither is there an elite isolation threat (though Pierce is still quite good). This means that when the jumpshots aren’t falling, the offense grinds to a halt.
Bench:
Brandon Bass
Power Forward
6’8’’ 250 lbs
2010-2011 Season Stats:
11.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, .7 bpg, .515 fg%, .815 ft% (26 mpg)
Role / Analysis:
Brandon Bass steps right into the role that Glen Davis played on the team last year. He’ll probably see an increase in his minutes from last year to close to 30 minutes a game, basically playing starter minutes while Jermaine plays a role more like a backup – his numbers will likely increase accordingly.
Brandon Bass brings most of the same things to the table that Glen Davis did – he just does them with greater efficiency. Despite being a good inside scorer (which sets him apart from Davis), Brandon Bass is primarily a face-up, jumpshooting scorer. He is a solid offensive rebounder, but a below average rebounder for his position overall. He’s also a questionable defender, and is not much of a threat to block or bother shots. He’ll provide the team with a scoring spark of the bench, which as previously noted will be greatly needed due to the lack of scoring in the starting lineup (particularly in the front-court).
Mickael Pietrus
Small Forward
6’6’’ 215 lbs
2010-2011 Season Stats:
7.4 ppg, 2.0 rpg, .5 spg, .392 fg%, .342 3p%, .706 ft% (18 mpg)
Role / Analysis:
Pietrus steps more or less into the same role that Marquis Daniels and Jeff Green played before him. Play defense, get out on the break, hit outside shots when the ball comes to him. He won’t be as much of a scoring threat as Green, and probably not as good a defender or fast break finisher, either. Still, he’s made a career out of providing 3 and D, and he should continue to do that, though he’s not a terribly efficient scorer, nor is he a very good free throw shooter. His numbers and minutes probably won’t change a great deal from last season, and he’s only 29 so hopefully he won’t show any signs of great decline.
Keyon Dooling
Point Guard
6’3’’ 195 lbs
2010-2011 Season Stats:
7.1 ppg, 3.0 apg, .7 spg, .397 fg%, .346 3p%, .830 ft% (22 mpg)
Role / Analysis:
Dooling is a tweener guard who will be asked to take over the backup point guard duties and occasional off-guard role that Delonte West played last year. Just as with Pietrus taking over Jeff Green’s role, it’s probably foolish to think Dooling will be anything but a downgrade. Dooling’s minutes and numbers will probably be pretty comparable to last season, though he may show some decline in shooting percentages.
Dooling is an okay ball handler, and a solid defender at either guard position. He’s also a decent, though streaky, outside shooter, and he’ll contribute a decent amount of scoring off the bench mainly on outside shots (which he isn’t afraid to take). Like Pietrus, he’s also pretty inefficient, but the C’s could do worse than a back up guard who handles the ball okay and provides decent 3 and D. Just don’t expect more than that.
Chris Wilcox
Power Forward
6’10’’ 235 lbs
2010-2011 Season Stats:
7.4 pts, 4.8 rpg, .581 fg%, .562 ft% (17.5 mpg)
Role / Analysis:
On paper, Wilcox should be a solid pickup. Last season he scored quite a bit on a per minute basis, and did so with a very high field goal percentage. He’s a very free throw shooter, and doesn’t get to the line much, however. He’s a pretty good rebounder as well, and is decent on the offensive boards. He’s also still in his prime and pretty athletic. If he can carve out a role playing 15-20 minutes at center, he should put up good numbers.
The issue, of course, is that he’s never been a good defender, and bad defenders always have trouble getting into Doc’s rotations. Also, with Bass and Garnett taking up almost all of the minutes at power forward, Wilcox will need to play out of position at center in order to have a role. Wilcox is a bit of a wild card. He could be a great addition, or he could give the team very little; I’d draw a comparison to Troy Murphy and Nenad Krstic last season. Hopefully he contributes much more like the latter than the former.
Marquis Daniels
Shooting Guard
6’6’’ 200 lbs
2010-2011 Season Stats:
5.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg, .491 fg%, .684 ft%
Role / Analysis:
Marquis played a solid though understated role for the Celtics through 49 games last season, but his season – and it seemed his career – came to a crashing halt with a scary spinal injury that he miraculously recovered from this off-season. Due to the severity of the injury, it’s hard to say how effective Marquis will be coming back.
Even if he comes back strong, though Marquis is a solid defender at SG, he often gets out-muscled playing against small forwards, and that is most often where Doc plays him. He’s also a terrible shooter farther than 10 feet away from the basket, so he doesn’t space the floor at all. He’s a better backup wing option than Sasha Pavlovic, and probably Avery Bradley, but it’s likely he won’t see much time ahead of Mickael Pietrus.
End of Bench:
Greg Stiemsma
Center
6’11’’ 250
Stats: N/A
Brief:
Stiemsma is a D-league DPOY who apparently has one NBA-level skill: blocking shots. It’s hard to say what the Celtics will get from him other than that this season, despite his surprising production in the first few games that he played. He might prove to be a great find, or he might not do much more than Semih Erden did in his time here.
Avery Bradley
Shooting Guard
6’2’’ 180 lbs
Stats: N/A
Brief:
Bradley did nothing last season, but with Delonte gone he might find a spot in the rotation this year. It’s hard to say what the team has in Bradley other than a very good on-ball defender. He’s apparently an awful shooter, a poor ball handler, and a timid decision maker. He has a great deal of potential, so he might break out, but more likely than not he still has a long way to go.
Sasha Pavlovic
Small Forward
6’7’’ 235 lbs
Stats: N/A
Brief:
Sasha is a borderline rotation player on most teams, and especially so on the Celtics. He provides some defense, can finish on the break, and is theoretically capable of hitting the outside shot, though he’s extremely inconsistent (some seasons he’s awful, other seasons he’s quite good). It’s unlikely that he’ll see much playing time unless there are injuries, and he’s never been very productive anyway, so we shouldn’t expect much. He’s a candidate to get waived halfway through the season to make room for veteran minimum pickups.
E’Twuan Moore
Rookie Shooting Guard
Brief:
Let’s be honest, Doc never plays rookies unless it’s a blowout.
JaJuan Johnson
Rookie Power Forward
Brief:
See above. Due to the lack of depth in the front court, you might think Doc would be forced to use JJJ, but JJJ is probably too thin to be a center, and unless KG goes down for a while with an injury, there’s a lot of depth ahead of him at power forward.
Bench Analysis:
The bench has one solid offensive option capable of putting up double digits every night – Bass – and a couple other guys who will hit some shots and play some good defense – Dooling and Pietrus. Otherwise, it’s fairly unremarkable. Asking for 30 points from this bench probably isn’t unreasonable on a good night, but there will be some nights when the only guy who scores at all is Bass.
Only Wilcox is a proven above average rebounder, and as covered here he may find it hard to break into the rotation. The bench is also representative of the general lack of size on the roster; there isn’t a single player listed at seven feet, the guard rotation doesn’t feature a player over 6’5’’, and there aren’t any big wings either. Garnett is the only player on the roster who is big for his position, though he will see a significant number of minutes at center, where he has a very thin frame.
Also, there are only two outside shooting threats on the bench, and neither of them shoots a very high percentage from outside or from the field in general. Combine that with the fact that only two members of the starting lineup is an outside threat, and there’s a notable lack of floor spacing on the team. Without going very small, Doc can only put 3 guys on the floor at any time who can reliably hit a three. Despite the lack of scoring from the starting lineup and the subsequent need for a lot of scoring from the bench, I’m not sure if we can expect the bench to lift up the starters – especially considering that none of the players on the bench have played together before.
It’s also worth pointing out that of the three key bench players – Bass, Dooling, and Pietrus – each of them has dealt with injury issues at some point in the past few seasons. Things could get ugly fast if those guys miss significant amounts of time, because this team can’t afford for the bench to be unproductive.
Overall Roster Analysis:
In summary, I think it’s reasonable to expect between 66 and 70 points a game from the starters, and 25-30 points a game from the bench. That means we can expect between 91 and 100 points a game – probably somewhere right in the middle, I’d think. That sounds just about right, since the team scored 96.5 points per game last season – which, by the way, was 23rd in the league. That low scoring average means there will be a lot of pressure on the defense to hold opponents well below 100 points, which admittedly in the past hasn’t been a problem. The team was first in the league last year, allowing only 91 points per game.
However, if the Celtics defense drops out of the top 10 in the league this season in points allowed per game, the team will most likely be giving up more points a game than they’ll be scoring, and that’s really bad. Though the roster is filled with a lot of decent to very good defensive players, given the age of the players and the demands of a condensed season, it’s likely that it will be a struggle for this team to play elite defense night in and night out. This will be especially true on the second night of back to backs, and the third game played in four nights – in the past few years, the Celtics have a pretty mediocre record in those situations. Unfortunately, those types of games make up almost half of the 66 game schedule. The fact that the team gives up a ton of offensive rebounds, and doesn’t get many of its own (last in the league last year), while also turning over the ball a lot (bottom 10 in the league last year) means that the Celtics, more often than not, will have fewer possessions than their opponent. This is especially true due to the fact that nobody on the roster gets to the line on a frequent basis. This possession differential places an even greater burden on the defense.
Furthermore, the fact that the starters have to work so hard on defense throughout the game, coupled with their advanced age, means that they are often exhausted by late in the fourth quarter. In close games, this means that the jumpshots, on which the team relies almost exclusively for its offense, especially late in games, will frequently simply stop falling. Combine stagnant offense, turnovers, and giving up a lot of rebounds and you create a lot of opportunities for other teams to make comebacks, or turn close games into blowouts. This will especially be a problem against younger, deeper, more athletic teams that will have fresh legs and the ability to take it to the hoop even deep into the 4th quarter.
A lot of this stuff isn’t new, but the gradual decline of the Big 3 coupled with the lack of young talent (sadly, the loss of Jeff Green really exacerbated this) means that the situation has only become worse since the middle of last season. The team is still capable of playing elite defense, and the older players will have some nights where they look great again. This means that the Celtics will be a threat to beat any team in the league on any given night.
Nevertheless, especially in a condensed season with a shortened training camp and preseason, and with an almost entirely new bench lacking in chemistry, it’s going to be hard to bring it on a nightly (and I mean nightly) basis for these guys. That’s why, if you look at the schedule, and take all of these things into consideration, it’s difficult to imagine this team ending the season much better than a few games over .500.
After carefully looking at the schedule, my (subjective) prediction for this season is 36 wins, and a bottom 4 seed in the playoffs.
Topic: Attempt at an Objective Breakdown of the Roster (Read 3750 times)