Wishful thinking about the CP3 / D12 / Deron situations

[Who]

http://www.iamagm.com/news/2011/12/02/source.claims.pretty.strong.chance.nene.signs.nets

Going back to Nene for a second, this report sounds very accurate.

If there is a disconnect between Nene and Denver and/or some unwillingness to meet his financial terms ... New Jersey do look the frontrunner to nab his signature.

It's already been reported that Indy are only interested in Nene if they can get him at a good price. They won't enter a bidding war. They won't overpay him. New Jersey clearly will. They overpaid everyone last summer and are desperate to prove to Deron Williams that they can build a title contender there.

Golden State and Houston don't have enough cap space and would need a sign and trade to finalize a deal. Houston don't have much to offer in a way of a trade. The Warriors do but they are club with a history of losing and have an uncertain future. If the money is comparable, New Jersey should rank ahead of them.

Toronto is in even worse shape. Not enough cap space. A lack of trade assets outside of future picks. A losing team that is a million miles from contention. Dallas and Miami don't look like real contenders for his signature either.

New Jersey and Denver look to be way out in front with NJ the first team in line to poach Nene if the Nuggets' negotiations go badly. 

[BballTim]

Step 3:  The season is over.  Deron Williams quickly bolts for New York, worrying that CP3 will beat him there.  

I don’t know about this one.  

July 1st, 2012, the Knicks make calls to both Deron Williams and Chris Paul offering identical deals, and say whoever takes it first gets it?  I don’t think teams operate like that and I also don’t think either are in that much of a hurry to take less money that the Knicks can offer.  The teams both players are on can offer $100m, any team with enough cap room can offer $74m, and I think I read the Knicks could only offer something like $50-$55m (not sure about this last one though, but I know they won’t be able to offer the full $74m).  Deron could still end up on the Knicks, but I don’t think it will be because he beats Chris Paul there.

So, I know this is the 100th time we've all seen the same thing.  Is there any chance of Deron taking CP3's seat in New York?  And would Deron/CP3 and Howard choose Boston to play together, rather than NJ?

Here’s the thing, I don’t view Deron Williams as friendly and buddy-buddy with the other superstars as they are with each other.  He seems like kind of a loner and major introvert.  (Just my opinion).  So based on this, I don’t see Deron as willing to take less money to sign with other superstars (because I don’t see him as buddies with them).  

I could see Chris Paul being traded to the C’s and Dwight signing with the C’s.
I could see Dwight being traded to the Nets and both Dwight and Deron re-sign there.
I could see Chris Paul signing with Knicks no matter where he gets traded.
I can’t really see Deron signing with the Knicks if Chris Paul signs elsewhere, but it could happen, I just don’t think it’s very likely.  More likely Deron would go some place with cap space and a superstar (Clippers?).

No chance of a Deron and Dwight pairing in Boston though.  To get 2 superstars like that in the same free agent period I think they need to really be buddies.

while like you i have no evidence to back it up, i share your intuition that deron is kind of a loner and an introvert.  that's part of why i think he's going to remain on the nets whether or not they get dwight howard, as long as they take clear affirmative steps to upgrade the roster around him (e.g. signing Nene).

unless he's traded to one of the LA teams, i really think dwight howard is most likely to choose the newly christened brooklyn nets next summer.  i think dwight will almost certainly get traded prior to the trade deadline this season though, so that means he'll be in LA or Brooklyn next year, in my opinion.  the celtics could be a dark horse for dwight only if they manage to acquire CP3 and maintain cap room.

  I don't know that CP3 is the key to getting Dwight. He might be friends with Paul, but Chris could end up on a team that can't fit Howard. I doubt that he would say "I'd sign with the Celts if they had CP3 and PP but wouldn't consider it if they had PP and Rondo", especially if Rondo has a healthy year.

[bdm860]

Clippers also are completely screwed if they can't sign CP3 long-term.

Yeah, it makes much more sense for them to try to trade for DH.  

The same logic that they're screwed if they can't sign CP3 long-term applies to DH. Neither will trade a package like that for the two unless he committs to resigning with them.

well, no team is going to get any guarantee of a player signing long term with them due to the new cba's limitations on extend and trades.  going to have to wait till the end of the season to resign with bird rights.  

the clippers might feel that it is too big a risk, which is why more ballsy and / or win-now teams like the nets, celtics, or lakers might have a better chance of getting cp3 or howard, but i wouldn't count the clippers out.

Here's an outside of the box thought though.

When have the Clippers ever cared about being good?

They've proven they're willing to spend a little when they have a chance of being really good (like in '06 when they had the good playoff run) or to try to sign a superstar (Kobe in '04, LeBron last year).  But they're don't really seem willing to spend money just to be good. 

Believe it or not, the Clippers are on of the few teams that I believe was profitable every year of the last CBA.  Check their operating income compared to other the majority of other teams.

I could see the Clippers swinging for the fences to get Paul and/or Howard.  Even if they end up walking away and the Clippers are left with nothing, I don't think the Clippers care that much.  They'd rather suck and make money, then win 45-50 games and make less money.  They don't mind being terrible, and don't have a problem with rebuilding every year.  If Paul/Howard walk, then they just go back to their profitable formula of being cheap that they've been winning financially with since being in LA.

[snively]

http://www.iamagm.com/news/2011/12/02/source.claims.pretty.strong.chance.nene.signs.nets

Excellent news. I hope that happens.

I want to see Nene leave the Denver Nuggets. That franchise is going nowhere. I'd love to see him spend the next few years on a team that could actually do some damage in the playoffs.

A Nene + Brook Lopez frontcourt in addition to Deron Williams is a very strong base to build around. It'd give the Nets a real chance at developing a Championship caliber nucleus.

Plus, it'd harm the Nets 2012 cap flexibility which would aid the C's 2012 FA hopes. Win-win-win.

I imagine the Nets' plan, if they sign Nene, would be to trade Lopez + picks for Howard and use Nene as a PF alongside Dwight.

That would be a very impressive front-court, with Deron Williams to create looks for them.  If DH doesn't end up on the Celtics, I'd love to see him playing on the Nets alongside Nene and D-Will.

That would be a pretty beefy frontcourt.  But I'm not seeing the appeal of the Nets trade assets.  I just can't imagine the Magic pulling the trigger on a Lopez for Howard swap after watching the two match-up a few times last year.  Howard dominated every facet of the match-ups, scaring Lopez out of the paint, roughing him up under the boards, forcing him into 17-foot fade-away airballs and then scoring on him at will at the other end.  I just don't see the Magic agreeing to that trade. 

I don't like that offer either. Those picks would be fairly worthless. A Brook Lopez offer is easy to beat. It won't be a winning trade offer.

However, if it gets to free agency (where Boston would hope to nab Dwight Howard), and, Dwight Howard decided NJ/Brooklyn was his first choice and choose to force his way to the club ... I am sure the Magic would happily accept Brook Lopez in exchange.

So it would take them out of the immediate trade market but still keep them in as a major FA player despite the shrinkage to their cap space.

I think that would be conditional on Lopez wanting to go to Orlando.  I believe he's set to be a restricted free agent in 2012.  So it would have to be a mutual sign and trade with new contracts for both Howard and Lopez.  I just don't see it as a very likely scenario.

[nickagneta]

Step 3:  The season is over.  Deron Williams quickly bolts for New York, worrying that CP3 will beat him there.  

I don’t know about this one.  

July 1st, 2012, the Knicks make calls to both Deron Williams and Chris Paul offering identical deals, and say whoever takes it first gets it?  I don’t think teams operate like that and I also don’t think either are in that much of a hurry to take less money that the Knicks can offer.  The teams both players are on can offer $100m, any team with enough cap room can offer $74m, and I think I read the Knicks could only offer something like $50-$55m (not sure about this last one though, but I know they won’t be able to offer the full $74m).  Deron could still end up on the Knicks, but I don’t think it will be because he beats Chris Paul there.

So, I know this is the 100th time we've all seen the same thing.  Is there any chance of Deron taking CP3's seat in New York?  And would Deron/CP3 and Howard choose Boston to play together, rather than NJ?

Here’s the thing, I don’t view Deron Williams as friendly and buddy-buddy with the other superstars as they are with each other.  He seems like kind of a loner and major introvert.  (Just my opinion).  So based on this, I don’t see Deron as willing to take less money to sign with other superstars (because I don’t see him as buddies with them).  

I could see Chris Paul being traded to the C’s and Dwight signing with the C’s.
I could see Dwight being traded to the Nets and both Dwight and Deron re-sign there.
I could see Chris Paul signing with Knicks no matter where he gets traded.
I can’t really see Deron signing with the Knicks if Chris Paul signs elsewhere, but it could happen, I just don’t think it’s very likely.  More likely Deron would go some place with cap space and a superstar (Clippers?).

No chance of a Deron and Dwight pairing in Boston though.  To get 2 superstars like that in the same free agent period I think they need to really be buddies.

while like you i have no evidence to back it up, i share your intuition that deron is kind of a loner and an introvert.  that's part of why i think he's going to remain on the nets whether or not they get dwight howard, as long as they take clear affirmative steps to upgrade the roster around him (e.g. signing Nene).

unless he's traded to one of the LA teams, i really think dwight howard is most likely to choose the newly christened brooklyn nets next summer.  i think dwight will almost certainly get traded prior to the trade deadline this season though, so that means he'll be in LA or Brooklyn next year, in my opinion.  the celtics could be a dark horse for dwight only if they manage to acquire CP3 and maintain cap room.

  I don't know that CP3 is the key to getting Dwight. He might be friends with Paul, but Chris could end up on a team that can't fit Howard. I doubt that he would say "I'd sign with the Celts if they had CP3 and PP but wouldn't consider it if they had PP and Rondo", especially if Rondo has a healthy year.

I could see Howard saying exactly that. Sorry but personalities and personal friendships and loyalties have to be considered when determining where a top ranked free agent may land in today's NBA.

Unlike in prior eras, these NBA players all know each other since the time they were 12 or 13. They play in AAU teams and leagues together, hang out during summer camps together as teenagers and develop friendships and sometimes even animosities that continue until they are adults in the NBA.

Clearly, LeBron, Wade and Bosh were friends well before last year and worked the system to end up in Miami. A'Mare and Melo and Paul are all friends and this is why Paul desires to be in NY. Howard is close friends with Josh Smith and friends with Paul. I don't know if he has an opinion regarding Rondo. But if he doesn't like Rondo as much as he does Paul or even dislikes Rondo, clearly he could decide Boston would only be preferable if Paul was here and Rondo was not.

Today's NBA free agent athletes do not make destination decisions based solely on how he would fit on a team or what team gives him the best opportunity to win right away. Personal feelings about team mates, maximum money, city nightlife, and city climate are all now combined into a complex situation nowadays, especially in a league in which salary is a determinant as to where you can trade a player, which teams have the money available to sign a player and players can hold their teams hostage to manipulate where they can be sent or else be left with nothing as they go elsewhere.

[BballTim]

Step 3:  The season is over.  Deron Williams quickly bolts for New York, worrying that CP3 will beat him there.  

I don’t know about this one.  

July 1st, 2012, the Knicks make calls to both Deron Williams and Chris Paul offering identical deals, and say whoever takes it first gets it?  I don’t think teams operate like that and I also don’t think either are in that much of a hurry to take less money that the Knicks can offer.  The teams both players are on can offer $100m, any team with enough cap room can offer $74m, and I think I read the Knicks could only offer something like $50-$55m (not sure about this last one though, but I know they won’t be able to offer the full $74m).  Deron could still end up on the Knicks, but I don’t think it will be because he beats Chris Paul there.

So, I know this is the 100th time we've all seen the same thing.  Is there any chance of Deron taking CP3's seat in New York?  And would Deron/CP3 and Howard choose Boston to play together, rather than NJ?

Here’s the thing, I don’t view Deron Williams as friendly and buddy-buddy with the other superstars as they are with each other.  He seems like kind of a loner and major introvert.  (Just my opinion).  So based on this, I don’t see Deron as willing to take less money to sign with other superstars (because I don’t see him as buddies with them).  

I could see Chris Paul being traded to the C’s and Dwight signing with the C’s.
I could see Dwight being traded to the Nets and both Dwight and Deron re-sign there.
I could see Chris Paul signing with Knicks no matter where he gets traded.
I can’t really see Deron signing with the Knicks if Chris Paul signs elsewhere, but it could happen, I just don’t think it’s very likely.  More likely Deron would go some place with cap space and a superstar (Clippers?).

No chance of a Deron and Dwight pairing in Boston though.  To get 2 superstars like that in the same free agent period I think they need to really be buddies.

while like you i have no evidence to back it up, i share your intuition that deron is kind of a loner and an introvert.  that's part of why i think he's going to remain on the nets whether or not they get dwight howard, as long as they take clear affirmative steps to upgrade the roster around him (e.g. signing Nene).

unless he's traded to one of the LA teams, i really think dwight howard is most likely to choose the newly christened brooklyn nets next summer.  i think dwight will almost certainly get traded prior to the trade deadline this season though, so that means he'll be in LA or Brooklyn next year, in my opinion.  the celtics could be a dark horse for dwight only if they manage to acquire CP3 and maintain cap room.

  I don't know that CP3 is the key to getting Dwight. He might be friends with Paul, but Chris could end up on a team that can't fit Howard. I doubt that he would say "I'd sign with the Celts if they had CP3 and PP but wouldn't consider it if they had PP and Rondo", especially if Rondo has a healthy year.

I could see Howard saying exactly that. Sorry but personalities and personal friendships and loyalties have to be considered when determining where a top ranked free agent may land in today's NBA.

Unlike in prior eras, these NBA players all know each other since the time they were 12 or 13. They play in AAU teams and leagues together, hang out during summer camps together as teenagers and develop friendships and sometimes even animosities that continue until they are adults in the NBA.

Clearly, LeBron, Wade and Bosh were friends well before last year and worked the system to end up in Miami. A'Mare and Melo and Paul are all friends and this is why Paul desires to be in NY. Howard is close friends with Josh Smith and friends with Paul. I don't know if he has an opinion regarding Rondo. But if he doesn't like Rondo as much as he does Paul or even dislikes Rondo, clearly he could decide Boston would only be preferable if Paul was here and Rondo was not.

Today's NBA free agent athletes do not make destination decisions based solely on how he would fit on a team or what team gives him the best opportunity to win right away. Personal feelings about team mates, maximum money, city nightlife, and city climate are all now combined into a complex situation nowadays, especially in a league in which salary is a determinant as to where you can trade a player, which teams have the money available to sign a player and players can hold their teams hostage to manipulate where they can be sent or else be left with nothing as they go elsewhere.

  So then what does Dwight do if CP3 ends up on the Knicks, decide between signing a vet min contract in NY and retiring?

[indeedproceed]

  So then what does Dwight do if CP3 ends up on the Knicks, decide between signing a vet min contract in NY and retiring?

He likely stays in Orlando for max money or goes to New Jersey for..max money.

[BballTim]

  So then what does Dwight do if CP3 ends up on the Knicks, decide between signing a vet min contract in NY and retiring?

He likely stays in Orlando for max money or goes to New Jersey for..max money.

  Likely based on what?

[Who]

  I don't know that CP3 is the key to getting Dwight. He might be friends with Paul, but Chris could end up on a team that can't fit Howard. I doubt that he would say "I'd sign with the Celts if they had CP3 and PP but wouldn't consider it if they had PP and Rondo", especially if Rondo has a healthy year.

I could see Howard saying exactly that. Sorry but personalities and personal friendships and loyalties have to be considered when determining where a top ranked free agent may land in today's NBA.

Unlike in prior eras, these NBA players all know each other since the time they were 12 or 13. They play in AAU teams and leagues together, hang out during summer camps together as teenagers and develop friendships and sometimes even animosities that continue until they are adults in the NBA.

Clearly, LeBron, Wade and Bosh were friends well before last year and worked the system to end up in Miami. A'Mare and Melo and Paul are all friends and this is why Paul desires to be in NY. Howard is close friends with Josh Smith and friends with Paul. I don't know if he has an opinion regarding Rondo. But if he doesn't like Rondo as much as he does Paul or even dislikes Rondo, clearly he could decide Boston would only be preferable if Paul was here and Rondo was not.

Today's NBA free agent athletes do not make destination decisions based solely on how he would fit on a team or what team gives him the best opportunity to win right away. Personal feelings about team mates, maximum money, city nightlife, and city climate are all now combined into a complex situation nowadays, especially in a league in which salary is a determinant as to where you can trade a player, which teams have the money available to sign a player and players can hold their teams hostage to manipulate where they can be sent or else be left with nothing as they go elsewhere.

I completely disagree.

Rarely a deciding factor and usually only that when all else is equal.

However, misguided GMs frequently give this factor (personal friendships) undue importance ... and go out and sign these player's friends only to find they have made incorrect assumptions about that friend(s) presence convincing their star talent to stay.

[indeedproceed]

  So then what does Dwight do if CP3 ends up on the Knicks, decide between signing a vet min contract in NY and retiring?

He likely stays in Orlando for max money or goes to New Jersey for..max money.

  Likely based on what?

His comments, and the money that will be available.

[bruinsandceltics]

Clippers also are completely screwed if they can't sign CP3 long-term.

Did you really even need to add "if they can't sign CP3 long-term?"

It's amazing that the Clippers can still offer an amazing package for Paul so soon after trading the #1 pick in the draft for Mo Williams and Jamario Moon.  Why do they get so many chances to screw up?

Exactly why I blows my mind that guys like CP3 would want to go there, yet they wouldn't want to come here.

Ridiculous. Such a terrible organization.

[stylo617617]

i'd have to consider trading for paul even without the extension in which we'll have to give up less given that fact becuase we all love rondo there's no denying that but its ALWAYS been about the big 3,what can we do to help THE BIG 3 win ,its great rondo's developed to a great player but he's not nor never will be above the big 3 ,

& getting cp3 will have to make dwight think more about boston as a landing pad , trade wise we can only offer exp contracts & picks (which might be enough),


trade rondo & glen to NO staight up for cp3 since he may or may not sign the extension NO cant ask for top value anyway

trade ray & KG the clips pick,this year's 1st rounder,& 2 more 1st rounders for dwight & hedo

now mind you orlando only takes that deal if dwight only wants to come here

if dwight comes you can bet cp3 signs long term here

regardles if we land cp3 & not dwight with no extenion next year we'll have A TON OF CAP SPACE to offer anyone its throwing the dice to say the least

[dtrader]

  I don't know that CP3 is the key to getting Dwight. He might be friends with Paul, but Chris could end up on a team that can't fit Howard. I doubt that he would say "I'd sign with the Celts if they had CP3 and PP but wouldn't consider it if they had PP and Rondo", especially if Rondo has a healthy year.

I could see Howard saying exactly that. Sorry but personalities and personal friendships and loyalties have to be considered when determining where a top ranked free agent may land in today's NBA.

Unlike in prior eras, these NBA players all know each other since the time they were 12 or 13. They play in AAU teams and leagues together, hang out during summer camps together as teenagers and develop friendships and sometimes even animosities that continue until they are adults in the NBA.

Clearly, LeBron, Wade and Bosh were friends well before last year and worked the system to end up in Miami. A'Mare and Melo and Paul are all friends and this is why Paul desires to be in NY. Howard is close friends with Josh Smith and friends with Paul. I don't know if he has an opinion regarding Rondo. But if he doesn't like Rondo as much as he does Paul or even dislikes Rondo, clearly he could decide Boston would only be preferable if Paul was here and Rondo was not.

Today's NBA free agent athletes do not make destination decisions based solely on how he would fit on a team or what team gives him the best opportunity to win right away. Personal feelings about team mates, maximum money, city nightlife, and city climate are all now combined into a complex situation nowadays, especially in a league in which salary is a determinant as to where you can trade a player, which teams have the money available to sign a player and players can hold their teams hostage to manipulate where they can be sent or else be left with nothing as they go elsewhere.

I completely disagree.

Rarely a deciding factor and usually only that when all else is equal.

However, misguided GMs frequently give this factor (personal friendships) undue importance ... and go out and sign these player's friends only to find they have made incorrect assumptions about that friend(s) presence convincing their star talent to stay.

I dont know how you could say that personal friendships and preferences are rarely a factor, when players directly say all the time that theyd like to play with this player or that player, when discussing other teams.  And you have situations like cp3/melo and dwade/lebron, where you have players who are friends specifically saying that they want trades that align them with their friends.  This isnt just the media...the majority of the elite players in the league would prefer to play with their friends, and would make whatever moves they could on their part to make that happen. 

What I would say is rare, is for a player to base his decisions on where he wants to go on "the organization".  Thats just something that they say for the cameras IMO.  I highly doubt many 20 something elite athletes care about the history of the celtics, lakers, knicks, etc.  They care about today.  What city has the best weather, what team has the nicest facilities, what city has the best night life, where are the most celebrities, etc.  The clippers "organization" may suck, but the weathers great, the night life is the best, the team facilities are some of the best, and playing for them puts you in contact with celebrities every game. I can see that appealing more than a team whose city boasts frigid winters, and mediocre nightlife...but has great "history".

[nickagneta]

  I don't know that CP3 is the key to getting Dwight. He might be friends with Paul, but Chris could end up on a team that can't fit Howard. I doubt that he would say "I'd sign with the Celts if they had CP3 and PP but wouldn't consider it if they had PP and Rondo", especially if Rondo has a healthy year.

I could see Howard saying exactly that. Sorry but personalities and personal friendships and loyalties have to be considered when determining where a top ranked free agent may land in today's NBA.

Unlike in prior eras, these NBA players all know each other since the time they were 12 or 13. They play in AAU teams and leagues together, hang out during summer camps together as teenagers and develop friendships and sometimes even animosities that continue until they are adults in the NBA.

Clearly, LeBron, Wade and Bosh were friends well before last year and worked the system to end up in Miami. A'Mare and Melo and Paul are all friends and this is why Paul desires to be in NY. Howard is close friends with Josh Smith and friends with Paul. I don't know if he has an opinion regarding Rondo. But if he doesn't like Rondo as much as he does Paul or even dislikes Rondo, clearly he could decide Boston would only be preferable if Paul was here and Rondo was not.

Today's NBA free agent athletes do not make destination decisions based solely on how he would fit on a team or what team gives him the best opportunity to win right away. Personal feelings about team mates, maximum money, city nightlife, and city climate are all now combined into a complex situation nowadays, especially in a league in which salary is a determinant as to where you can trade a player, which teams have the money available to sign a player and players can hold their teams hostage to manipulate where they can be sent or else be left with nothing as they go elsewhere.

I completely disagree.

Rarely a deciding factor and usually only that when all else is equal.

However, misguided GMs frequently give this factor (personal friendships) undue importance ... and go out and sign these player's friends only to find they have made incorrect assumptions about that friend(s) presence convincing their star talent to stay.

I dont know how you could say that personal friendships and preferences are rarely a factor, when players directly say all the time that theyd like to play with this player or that player, when discussing other teams.  And you have situations like cp3/melo and dwade/lebron, where you have players who are friends specifically saying that they want trades that align them with their friends.  This isnt just the media...the majority of the elite players in the league would prefer to play with their friends, and would make whatever moves they could on their part to make that happen. 

What I would say is rare, is for a player to base his decisions on where he wants to go on "the organization".  Thats just something that they say for the cameras IMO.  I highly doubt many 20 something elite athletes care about the history of the celtics, lakers, knicks, etc.  They care about today.  What city has the best weather, what team has the nicest facilities, what city has the best night life, where are the most celebrities, etc.  The clippers "organization" may suck, but the weathers great, the night life is the best, the team facilities are some of the best, and playing for them puts you in contact with celebrities every game. I can see that appealing more than a team whose city boasts frigid winters, and mediocre nightlife...but has great "history".

Exactly, and let's not forget exactly why KG originally didn't want to be traded to Boston and said he would not sign here if he was traded to Boston. KG HATES Wally Szczerbiak and didn't want to be on a team even close to Wally. But once Wally was gone and a friend of KG's(Ray Allen) became a Celtic, KG changed his mind.

Over the last decade or so, the elite players have made their personal friendships become a significant reason where they end up. I think you could not be more wrong Who.

[nickagneta]

  So then what does Dwight do if CP3 ends up on the Knicks, decide between signing a vet min contract in NY and retiring?

Of course! He'll do one or the other because CLEARLY, Dwight Howard has no other friends or other options open to him.

Geesh BBall!!! Did I say that friendship was the ONLY determining factor? All I did was disagree with you that Howard wouldn't say "I'd sign with the Celts if they had CP3 and PP but wouldn't consider it if they had PP and Rondo" because friendships now DO definitely play a factor in determining where superstars end up. The evidence over recent years is significant that this is true.

My guess is that if DH can't get to play with CP3 somewhere he would stay in Orlando and lobby for Otis Smith to go out and get a very available Josh Smith who is making it known he no longer wants to be anywhere near Atlanta.