Not convinced C.Hayes is a realistic target if all Boston has is the mini-MLE.
I think the Houston Rockets will offer a comparable deal to 3yrs $9mil and that C.Hayes' loyalty to the organization will keep him there once that offer is made.
Yeah, the Rockets organization loves him to death. But they have a little chunk of cap space this offseason, a trio of undersized bigs they like under contract (Scola, Patterson and, soon, Marcus Morris) and two centers they're not crazy about (Hill and Thabeet). There's a real chance they try to turn that cap space into one of the above average free agent bigs out there (Nene, Dalembert, Chandler, M. Gasol).
And I think Boston would harbor real appeal for Hayes. Rondo's an old teammate from Kentucky, it's a contending team and they'll be offering him major rotational minutes.
If it comes down to Houston signing one of those guys or parting with Hayes, they'll definitely discard Hayes.
They like him, they want to keep him ... but they won't let him get in the way of something more important.
But from the looks of their salary situation, they will likely need a sign and trade to land one of those guys ... so they should have a good chance of retaining Hayes' bird rights. From there, if they successfully acquire one of those guys (or D.Jordan), I would expect Houston to try and retain Hayes and make him the backup C.
And if they miss out on those FA centers - which I think is their most likely scenario - I reckon they'll keep Chuck on a low priced deal to fill that void. They'll be wary of their 2012 cap space so they won't go crazy, they won't match a full MLE deal, but I expect them to go as far as a mini-MLE contract.