Nets offering Brooke Lopez and 2 1st rd picks for Howard ( Sportscenter)

[Who]

Brook Lopez is a Rik Smits / Zydrunas Ilgauskas level center.

While I think both of those centers are underrated, I think Lopez is more offensively talented than either.  Also, for whatever it's worth, I have Smits and Ilgauskas on slightly different levels; I think Smits was in a higher class as a player, but he was hampered by injuries / durability concerns that kept him off the court some.

I consider Smits the superior offensive threat, over Big Z, by a fairly significant margin ... but I think Big Z has just as comparable an advantage as a defender/rebounder over Smits.

In terms of Brook Lopez, I would have him in between Smits and Big Z offensively + equal to Smits as a rebounder + quite different defensively; more mobile but less of a physical presence. A solid defender.

The one major thing he has over either player is good health. Rarely injured + Not minutes limited when available. Can play an extra 3-4 minutes over Big Z and 6-8 minutes more than Smits could respectively at their peak + a boatload more games.

That is my thinking on Brook Lopez anyway and what type of value he brings to the table.

[Who]

Note: Brook Lopez' scoring efficiency sky-rocketed once NJ upgraded from Devin Harris to Deron Williams. Lopez made several comments about how nice it was to have a proper point guard in NJ and how much easier it was making his life.

Prior to the All-Star break, Brook Lopez was scoring about 0.937 points per possession (below average). After the break, Lopez was up around 1.03 points per possession (way above average).

Very promising signs about how effective an offensive threat he can become on a quality playoff team as a second or third option.

[Greenbean]

Just like I think that we can probably offer the best deal for CP3, I think that New Jersey makes the most sense for Howard.  No other team can offer a young big man of Lopez's caliber and health (unless the Clippers want to move Griffin), and the ability to take back Hedo's contract is a huge added incentive for Orlando.

Exactly.  Much like the Nets made the best offer for Melo very early last year, they seem to be doing the same thing with Howard.  I like their aggressiveness here. 

I just don't think the Magic will ever do any better than that offer (and I am sure they could get them to sweeten it a little more, if they really want).

So, now it will be up to Howard, and what he tells Orlando's owners behind closed doors.  If he says he is gone, then I think he is a Net.  If he hesitates, they will likely hold on to him all year.

Yes I also agree.

3 things are going to happen if this offer is true.


1. Dwight wants to go to Brooklyn and play with Deron Williams. Deal done.
2. Dwight stays for one year and signs with the defending champion Boston Celtics in the offseason (that last part is a dream)

3. ORLANDO EXTENDS HIM! This is a darkhorse scenario. Orlando already handed one big market team 3 championships by not retaining another hall of fame center. Do you really think they want to go down in history for doing the same thing again?

And if he didn't want to go to Brooklyn, but Danny got CP and he wanted to come here, why wouldn't Orlando take Boston's best offer now?

Its a good question but our best offer would have to include one of our big salary old guys...They might be interested but I doubt it. We do not have any long term keepers besides Rondo and DH isnt coming without CP3...

[Roy H.]

Increasing scoring / scoring rate while maintaining efficiency isn't an improvement?  I'm surprised to hear you say that.  Generally, as shooting volume goes up, efficiency tends to go down.  Players who can maintain efficiency along with volume are rare.

This isn't true the number of shots taken by a given player usually only slightly decreases their efficiency. Especially if they're playing the same sort of role on their new team. Inefficient players typically stay inefficient and efficient guys typically stay efficient. Basketball players are pretty darn consistent overall with their play.

I just disagree.

Look at Paul Pierce as an example.  In the five years where he's taken the fewest FGAs per game, he's had 5 of his 6 best years in terms of FG%.  The year he took the most FGAs per game was his second worst in terms of efficiency. 

Take a look at Allen Iverson.  His efficiency tended to go down in relation to the volume of his shots; in the only two seasons where he ever shot 45% from the field, he averaged fewer than 17.6 FGAs.  In every season where he shot more, his efficiency was lower.

Look at Al Jefferson:  as shot attempts went up, his FG% went down.

Again, I will take players who maintain efficiency with an increase in volume any day.  Yes, there are players who do so, but those players tend to be very good.

[Greenbean]

Brook Lopez is a Rik Smits / Zydrunas Ilgauskas level center.

While I think both of those centers are underrated, I think Lopez is more offensively talented than either.  Also, for whatever it's worth, I have Smits and Ilgauskas on slightly different levels; I think Smits was in a higher class as a player, but he was hampered by injuries / durability concerns that kept him off the court some.

I consider Smits the superior offensive threat, over Big Z, by a fairly significant margin ... but I think Big Z has just as comparable an advantage as a defender/rebounder over Smits.

In terms of Brook Lopez, I would have him in between Smits and Big Z offensively + equal to Smits as a rebounder + quite different defensively; more mobile but less of a physical presence. A solid defender.

The one major thing he has over either player is good health. Rarely injured + Not minutes limited when available. Can play an extra 3-4 minutes over Big Z and 6-8 minutes more than Smits could respectively at their peak + a boatload more games.

That is my thinking on Brook Lopez anyway and what type of value he brings to the table.

I think of Lopez as a bigger Pau Gasol, who took years to shed his "soft" label.

[Roy H.]

Brook Lopez is a Rik Smits / Zydrunas Ilgauskas level center.

While I think both of those centers are underrated, I think Lopez is more offensively talented than either.  Also, for whatever it's worth, I have Smits and Ilgauskas on slightly different levels; I think Smits was in a higher class as a player, but he was hampered by injuries / durability concerns that kept him off the court some.

I consider Smits the superior offensive threat, over Big Z, by a fairly significant margin ... but I think Big Z has just as comparable an advantage as a defender/rebounder over Smits.

In terms of Brook Lopez, I would have him in between Smits and Big Z offensively + equal to Smits as a rebounder + quite different defensively; more mobile but less of a physical presence. A solid defender.

The one major thing he has over either player is good health. Rarely injured + Not minutes limited when available. Can play an extra 3-4 minutes over Big Z and 6-8 minutes more than Smits could respectively at their peak + a boatload more games.

That is my thinking on Brook Lopez anyway and what type of value he brings to the table.

I think of Lopez as a bigger Pau Gasol, who took years to shed his "soft" label.

That's probably a fair comparison, although I think Pau has always been a bit more offensively talented than Lopez.  In terms of their careers, though, they're arguably pretty similar.  Pau was seen as a poor rebounder who stagnated in Memphis, and was accused routinely of being soft despite putting up very good numbers on offensive and in terms of blocked shots.  Yet, that "soft" player has turned into a very good rebounder, and he physically man-handled KG in the 2010 Finals.

[Fafnir]

Increasing scoring / scoring rate while maintaining efficiency isn't an improvement?  I'm surprised to hear you say that.  Generally, as shooting volume goes up, efficiency tends to go down.  Players who can maintain efficiency along with volume are rare.

This isn't true the number of shots taken by a given player usually only slightly decreases their efficiency. Especially if they're playing the same sort of role on their new team. Inefficient players typically stay inefficient and efficient guys typically stay efficient. Basketball players are pretty darn consistent overall with their play.

I just disagree.

Look at Paul Pierce as an example.  In the five years where he's taken the fewest FGAs per game, he's had 5 of his 6 best years in terms of FG%.  The year he took the most FGAs per game was his second worst in terms of efficiency.  

Take a look at Allen Iverson.  His efficiency tended to go down in relation to the volume of his shots; in the only two seasons where he ever shot 45% from the field, he averaged fewer than 17.6 FGAs.  In every season where he shot more, his efficiency was lower.

Look at Al Jefferson:  as shot attempts went up, his FG% went down.

Again, I will take players who maintain efficiency with an increase in volume any day.  Yes, there are players who do so, but those players tend to be very good.

Yet his usage in 2007-2009 (first two KG season) was 7 points less than his in 2005-2006, but he had the close to the same TS%. He posted basically the same efficiency in 2006-2007 as well. So losing four shot attempts per 36 didn't effect his efficiency very much.

Only the past two years as his offensive role has really changed has his efficiency really spiked.

Furthermore I'll just refer to a number of studies by basketball number keeps, they've found a fairly weak relationship between shots and overall efficiency. If you run regressions on the aggregate data, the relationship is a weak one.

[Fafnir]

Brook Lopez is a Rik Smits / Zydrunas Ilgauskas level center.

While I think both of those centers are underrated, I think Lopez is more offensively talented than either.  Also, for whatever it's worth, I have Smits and Ilgauskas on slightly different levels; I think Smits was in a higher class as a player, but he was hampered by injuries / durability concerns that kept him off the court some.

I consider Smits the superior offensive threat, over Big Z, by a fairly significant margin ... but I think Big Z has just as comparable an advantage as a defender/rebounder over Smits.

In terms of Brook Lopez, I would have him in between Smits and Big Z offensively + equal to Smits as a rebounder + quite different defensively; more mobile but less of a physical presence. A solid defender.

The one major thing he has over either player is good health. Rarely injured + Not minutes limited when available. Can play an extra 3-4 minutes over Big Z and 6-8 minutes more than Smits could respectively at their peak + a boatload more games.

That is my thinking on Brook Lopez anyway and what type of value he brings to the table.

I think of Lopez as a bigger Pau Gasol, who took years to shed his "soft" label.

That's probably a fair comparison, although I think Pau has always been a bit more offensively talented than Lopez.  In terms of their careers, though, they're arguably pretty similar.  Pau was seen as a poor rebounder who stagnated in Memphis, and was accused routinely of being soft despite putting up very good numbers on offensive and in terms of blocked shots.  Yet, that "soft" player has turned into a very good rebounder, and he physically man-handled KG in the 2010 Finals.

Lopez is a worse rebounder, shooter, and passer compared to Pau. Similar type of big man though.

[clover]

Wasn't Lopez not very good last year? I don't think I take that if I'm the Magic, especially not before Dwight has told them he won't sign an extension.

His rebounding dipped, but "not very good" is pretty relative.  He was 17th in the entire NBA in scoring, and was third among centers (behind Howard and Bargnani).  He's a pretty reliable inside scoring, with 42% of his offense coming inside, and he's got a decent jump shot, as well.  Defensively, he's decent, and is a consistent shot blocker.  Historically, he's been about average as a rebounder, although last year it fell to poor.

Very few centers -- let alone 23 year old centers -- are as accomplished and polished as Lopez is.

He played soft and it showed with rebounding numbers that BBD has put up, completely unacceptable if you think he's  a franchise building block.

Historically he hasn't even been average, he's been very poor. He was average as a rookie and its been downhill since.

I'm glad the NBA is back, I missed the shock of having Faf agree with me.

Ultimately I think the best offer comes from LAC they could package some of the following assets, Bledsoe, Aminu, Jordan, Kaman, Gordan and/or a 1st. I think a little help from other teams joining in on the deal and they could grab Cp3 and Howard.

Of the players you mentioned, though, only Gordon is on par with Lopez.  It seems weird to knock Lopez, and then include Kaman (29 years old, injury prone, coming off a season when he played 32 games and averaged 12p/7r) or Jordan (the same age as Lopez, but much, much more raw, and nowhere near as offensively skilled as Lopez) as assets.

The difference is those guys can be traded with eachother as well as a first. Where the Nets really only have Lopez and picks as good tradable assets.

Right, but at least when taking Gordon out of the equation, you're asking Orlando to trade a thoroughbred for two ponies and a donkey.  At least New Jersey is offering a horse.  (Whose analogy did I just steal?  Was it clover's?)

Ha!  I think it was.

[Roy H.]

Brook Lopez is a Rik Smits / Zydrunas Ilgauskas level center.

While I think both of those centers are underrated, I think Lopez is more offensively talented than either.  Also, for whatever it's worth, I have Smits and Ilgauskas on slightly different levels; I think Smits was in a higher class as a player, but he was hampered by injuries / durability concerns that kept him off the court some.

I consider Smits the superior offensive threat, over Big Z, by a fairly significant margin ... but I think Big Z has just as comparable an advantage as a defender/rebounder over Smits.

In terms of Brook Lopez, I would have him in between Smits and Big Z offensively + equal to Smits as a rebounder + quite different defensively; more mobile but less of a physical presence. A solid defender.

The one major thing he has over either player is good health. Rarely injured + Not minutes limited when available. Can play an extra 3-4 minutes over Big Z and 6-8 minutes more than Smits could respectively at their peak + a boatload more games.

That is my thinking on Brook Lopez anyway and what type of value he brings to the table.

I think of Lopez as a bigger Pau Gasol, who took years to shed his "soft" label.

That's probably a fair comparison, although I think Pau has always been a bit more offensively talented than Lopez.  In terms of their careers, though, they're arguably pretty similar.  Pau was seen as a poor rebounder who stagnated in Memphis, and was accused routinely of being soft despite putting up very good numbers on offensive and in terms of blocked shots.  Yet, that "soft" player has turned into a very good rebounder, and he physically man-handled KG in the 2010 Finals.

Lopez is a worse rebounder, shooter, and passer compared to Pau. Similar type of big man though.

Well, the rebounding thing is a recent development.  In Lopez's first two years, his TRB% was 15.8, then 13.5.  The first seven seasons of Pau's career were:  13.5, 13.7, 13.8, 13.7, 13.8, 16.3, 13.1.

I don't think we can say at this point that Lopez is bound to be a worse rebounder than Pau; Pau's numbers were pretty mediocre in Memphis, before becoming pretty good in LA.

[RebusRankin]

Likely the best deal the Magic get offered.

[Fafnir]

Well, the rebounding thing is a recent development.  In Lopez's first two years, his TRB% was 15.8, then 13.5.  The first seven seasons of Pau's career were:  13.5, 13.7, 13.8, 13.7, 13.8, 16.3, 13.1.

I don't think we can say at this point that Lopez is bound to be a worse rebounder than Pau; Pau's numbers were pretty mediocre in Memphis, before becoming pretty good in LA.

Pau's worst rebounding year is better than Lopez's career average.

Putting up a 10 over a whole season will do that to you, and the trend isn't a good one.

[Roy H.]

Well, the rebounding thing is a recent development.  In Lopez's first two years, his TRB% was 15.8, then 13.5.  The first seven seasons of Pau's career were:  13.5, 13.7, 13.8, 13.7, 13.8, 16.3, 13.1.

I don't think we can say at this point that Lopez is bound to be a worse rebounder than Pau; Pau's numbers were pretty mediocre in Memphis, before becoming pretty good in LA.

Pau's worst rebounding year is better than Lopez's career average.

Putting up a 10 over a whole season will do that to you, and the trend isn't a good one.

Yes, Lopez had a poor season.  I guess I'm just curious why we should assume that last year is his true rebounding ability, rather than the prior two years?  He's had one year where his rebounding was the equivalent of Pau's early years, one year where he was better, and one year where he was worse.  To me, that doesn't scream "inferior rebounder".

[Fafnir]

Well, the rebounding thing is a recent development.  In Lopez's first two years, his TRB% was 15.8, then 13.5.  The first seven seasons of Pau's career were:  13.5, 13.7, 13.8, 13.7, 13.8, 16.3, 13.1.

I don't think we can say at this point that Lopez is bound to be a worse rebounder than Pau; Pau's numbers were pretty mediocre in Memphis, before becoming pretty good in LA.

Pau's worst rebounding year is better than Lopez's career average.

Putting up a 10 over a whole season will do that to you, and the trend isn't a good one.

Yes, Lopez had a poor season.  I guess I'm just curious why we should assume that last year is his true rebounding ability, rather than the prior two years?  He's had one year where his rebounding was the equivalent of Pau's early years, one year where he was better, and one year where he was worse.  To me, that doesn't scream "inferior rebounder".

What part of weighing all three years equally and coming out with an average with lower than Pau's worst season doesn't work for you?

Another factor to consider is that Pau plays more minutes at the 4 than Lopez, which reduces what you'd expect from his defensive rebounding.

[Inside-Out]

The surprise emergence of Humphries as a rebounder probably took a bit away from Lopez.  I wouldn't sweat the dip in rebs too much.  The dude can play.