Cap Space in 2012 (math)

[Jeff]

it has been reported that the cap will remain at 58M the next two years (and the Lux Tax is 70M or so)

based on Sham Sports, the C's have just $29.4M committed to 2012

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/celtics.jsp

simple math time

58M - 29.4M = 28.6M

I think that even if we signed Green to a 8 to 9M long term contract, we would still have money left to go after a max free agent (as long as we filled out the rest of the roster this year with 1 year deals)

the other caveat is that JaJuan at least will get a multi year rookie deal and to keep a guy like Delonte we'll probably have to give him multiple years but I think that's largely in the noise

plus we've always got the option of cutting someone next year with the "stretch" rule to free up a little extra space

tell me if my math is off or if I'm missing something important

[LooseCannon]

Let's say JuJuan Johnson and Jeff Green are signed to a combined $10 million.  That would mean $38.6 million for 5 players.  That puts them 7 players below 12.  The cap space would be further constricted by 7 times the rookie minimum salary, which will be around $3.5 million.  The stretch rule won't matter because you're not really going to cut Pierce or Rondo.

So, they would have about 58-38.6-3.5 or $15.9 million.  But you also have to subtract the rookie scale contracts of any first round pick, which won't matter if those are used to acquire a max contract.

If you trade Bradley for a future pick and also trade the first round picks, then you have a team of Rondo, Pierce, Green, Johnson, your max free agent, whoever you can sign for that mini exception for teams that start out under the cap and go over it, and a bunch of minimum salary guys.

[Roy H.]

shamsports is a good site, but this is the best one, Jeff:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&key=0AodNvAy3ZYZmdGRZX0VjeC1wdC1GeTd4dDJKZGZvVVE&hl=en_US&gid=4

(For the Celtics, it comes out the same).

LooseCannon's analysis is correct:  you always have to account for cap holds for unused roster spots; the cap rules require you to assume at least a 12 player roster.  So, for each open roster spot, you add $490k.

I hope that we don't sign Jeff Green to an $8 to $9 million contract, though.  He's simply not worth it.

[Kane3387]

shamsports is a good site, but this is the best one, Jeff:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&key=0AodNvAy3ZYZmdGRZX0VjeC1wdC1GeTd4dDJKZGZvVVE&hl=en_US&gid=4

(For the Celtics, it comes out the same).

LooseCannon's analysis is correct:  you always have to account for cap holds for unused roster spots; the cap rules require you to assume at least a 12 player roster.  So, for each open roster spot, you add $490k.

I hope that we don't sign Jeff Green to an $8 to $9 million contract, though.  He's simply not worth it.

No he isn't. At least as of now he isn't. That could change if he has a very good year this year. I think he will have to accept the QO because even though Restricted Free Agency is 3 days, that is a long time to have money tied up when Free Agency will by so short. As of now I wouldn't give Green a contract any larger then the one Martell Webster received from Portland.

[Jeff]

as I understand it, the Amnesty rule is only for players under contract as of now, but the Stretch rule is annual and can be for anyone - so in theory, if Green doesn't pan out, we can chose to waive him for (some) immediate cap room and stretch his cap hit over a few seasons

[Roy H.]

as I understand it, the Amnesty rule is only for players under contract as of now, but the Stretch rule is annual and can be for anyone - so in theory, if Green doesn't pan out, we can chose to waive him for (some) immediate cap room and stretch his cap hit over a few seasons

True (so long as the "stretch" payments don't fall above a certain percentage of the cap).  However, I'm hoping we don't use this as excuse to gamble and make mistakes.

Let's say that Green gets a 4 year, $36 million contract, and we want to waive him after the first year.  There would be approximately $28 million left on his deal, over three years.  You double those years, and add one (so, 3 x 2 = 6 + 1 = 7).  We'd be paying off that $28 million over 7 years, at a clip of $4 million per year.  That's a pretty costly mistake.

Hopefully, we can get it right the first time, and not overpay for Green.