2012: The NBA Free Agent Summer of Fun

[nickagneta]

SO I am going to go out on a limb here and say that the 2011-2012 season isn't going to happen. Eventually though, once the owners have to cut checks to networks to pay them back a billion dollars and the players start looking at what their cash flow is like after a year with no paychecks, this lockout will be settled probably before the summer.

Which means that every team is going to have to sign two years worth of draft picks and then try also to rebuild their teams after having two years of their players contracts expiring without doing anything about it. Most teams are going to have to re-sign important core players, offer out qualifying offers, and start putting together strategies for signing new players under new collective bargaining rules. And for the few teams that will enter that summer over the cap and or over the luxury tax, things will be very different.

As an aside, a question to ponder. Will the amnesty clause proposed by the owners still need to be included given that two years worth of player contracts will have expired and very very few teams will be over the cap once business returns? I mean the only teams that the amnesty clause will help out at that point is the Lakers, Dallas, Orlando, Portland, Miami and some teams under that cap that have some horrible contracts(Washington with Lewis, NJ with Outlaw, Milwaukee with Gooden).

Anyway, I digress.

So the summer of 2012 will come and Boston will be in the envious position of looking at the largest group of free agents, possibly ever as two years of free agents will be available and quite possibly many teams will be willing to allow their restricted free agents to walk because of wanting to stay out of the luxury tax penalty or because there will be better options available in free agency or because they won't be able to decide quickly enough because of the new 3 day decision window.

Here is ESPN's total list:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-11-12

Atlanta
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Hilton Armstrong
Jason Collins
Jamal Crawford
Josh Powell
Etan Thomas
Damien Wilkins    

RESTRICTED 2012
Magnum Rolle

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Kirk Hinrich

Boston

RESTRICTED 2011
Jeff Green

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Carlos Arroyo
Glen Davis
Nenad Krstic
Troy Murphy
Sasha Pavlovic
Von Wafer
Delonte West
   
RESTRICTED 2012
None

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Ray Allen
Kevin Garnett
Jermaine O'Neal

Charlotte

RESTRICTED 2011
Dante Cunningham

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Kwame Brown
Dominic McGuire
Joel Przybilla
Garrett Temple
   
RESTRICTED 2012
D.J. Augustin
D.J. White

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Matt Carroll (ETO)
Boris Diaw
DeSagana Diop (P)
Eduardo Najera
   
Chicago
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Rasual Butler
Brian Scalabrine
Kurt Thomas
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Omer Asik
Derrick Rose

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Keith Bogans
John Lucas
Jannero Pargo
   
Cleveland
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Anthony Parker
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Semih Erden
Alonzo Gee
Luke Harangody
Manny Harris

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Baron Davis (ETO)
Joey Graham
Ryan Hollins
Antawn Jamison
Ramon Sessions (P)
   
Dallas
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Jose Juan Barea
Caron Butler
Brian Cardinal
Tyson Chandler
DeShawn Stevenson
Peja Stojakovic    

RESTRICTED 2012
Rudy Fernandez

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Jason Kidd
Ian Mahinmi
Jason Terry
   
Denver
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Arron Afflalo
Wilson Chandler
Gary Forbes

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Melvin Ely
Kenyon Martin
Nene Hilario
J.R. Smith
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Danilo Gallinari
Kosta Koufos

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Andre Miller
   
Detroit
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Jonas Jerebko
Rodney Stuckey

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Tracy McGrady
Tayshaun Prince
DaJuan Summers
Chris Wilcox    

RESTRICTED 2012
Terrico White

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Jason Maxiell (P)
Ben Wallace
   
Golden State
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Reggie Williams

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Acie Law
Al Thornton
Vladimir Radmanovic    

RESTRICTED 2012
Jeremy Lin

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Louis Amundson
Charlie Bell
   
Houston
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Chuck Hayes
Yao Ming    

RESTRICTED 2012
Courtney Lee

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Goran Dragic
   
Indiana
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Mike Dunleavy
T.J. Ford
Jeff Foster
Solomon Jones
Josh McRoberts    

RESTRICTED 2012
Roy Hibbert
George Hill
A.J. Price
Brandon Rush

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Dahntay Jones (P)
James Posey
   
L.A. Clippers
   
RESTRICTED 2011
DeAndre Jordan

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Jamario Moon
Craig Smith
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Eric Gordon

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Brian Cook
Randy Foye
Chris Kaman
Mo Williams (PO)
   
L.A. Lakers
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Shannon Brown
Theo Ratliff
Joe Smith
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Derrick Caracter
Devin Ebanks
Trey Johnson

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Matt Barnes
Andrew Bynum (T)
Derek Fisher (P)
   
Memphis
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Marc Gasol
Hamed Haddadi

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Shane Battier
Leon Powe
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Darrell Arthur
O.J. Mayo
Ishmael Smith
Sam Young

UNRESTRICTED 2012
None
   
Miami
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Mario Chalmers

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Mike Bibby
Erick Dampier
Juwan Howard
James Jones
Jamaal Magloire    

RESTRICTED 2012
None

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Eddie House
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
   
Milwaukee
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Earl Boykins
Chris Douglas-Roberts
Michael Redd
   
RESTRICTED 2012
None

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Carlos Delfino
Keyon Dooling
Ersan Ilyasova
Beno Udrih (P)

Minnesota
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Sebastian Telfair    

RESTRICTED 2012
Michael Beasley
Kevin Love
Anthony Randolph

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Anthony Tolliver
   
New Jersey
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Dan Gadzuric
Kris Humphries
Ben Uzoh
Sasha Vujacic
Mario West
Brandan Wright
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Sundiata Gaines
Brook Lopez

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Jordan Farmar (P)
Stephen Graham
Deron Williams (P)
   
New Orleans
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Marco Belinelli

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Marcus Banks
Aaron Gray
Willie Green
Carl Landry
D.J. Mbenga
Jason Smith
David West    

RESTRICTED 2012
David Andersen

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Chris Paul (P)
   
New York
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Derrick Brown

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Anthony Carter
Jared Jeffries
Roger Mason
Shawne Williams
Shelden Williams    

RESTRICTED 2012
Landry Fields
Bill Walker

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Chauncey Billups
Ronny Turiaf
   
Oklahoma City
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Daequan Cook

UNRESTRICTED 2011
None    

RESTRICTED 2012
Robert Vaden
Russell Westbrook

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Royal Ivey
Nazr Mohammed
Nate Robinson
   
Orlando
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Malik Allen
Earl Clark
Jason Richardson
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Ryan Anderson

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Brandon Bass (P)
Dwight Howard (ETO)
Jameer Nelson (P)
   
Philadelphia
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Spencer Hawes
Thaddeus Young

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Tony Battie
Antonio Daniels
Jason Kapono
Darius Songaila    

RESTRICTED 2012
Jodie Meeks
Marreese Speights

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Elton Brand (ETO)
Andres Nocioni (T)
   
Phoenix
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Aaron Brooks

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Grant Hill
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Zabian Dowdell
Robin Lopez
Garret Siler

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Vince Carter
Steve Nash
Mickael Pietrus
   
Portland
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Patrick Mills
Greg Oden

UNRESTRICTED 2011
None    

RESTRICTED 2012
Nicolas Batum
Armon Johnson
Chris Johnson

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Earl Barron
Marcus Camby
Raymond Felton
Gerald Wallace (P)
   
Sacramento
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Marcus Thornton

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Samuel Dalembert
Marquis Daniels
Darnell Jackson
Pooh Jeter
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Donte Greene
J.J. Hickson
Jason Thompson

UNRESTRICTED 2012
None
   
San Antonio
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Steve Novak
Chris Quinn
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Daniel Green

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Tim Duncan
Antonio McDyess
   
Toronto
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Sonny Weems

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Alexis Ajinca
Joey Dorsey
Reggie Evans
Julian Wright
   
RESTRICTED 2012
Solomon Alabi (T)
Jerryd Bayless

UNRESTRICTED 2012
Leandro Barbosa
   
Utah
   
RESTRICTED 2011
None

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Francisco Elson
Kyrylo Fesenko
Andrei Kirilenko
Ronnie Price
Earl Watson    

RESTRICTED 2012
Jeremy Evans

UNRESTRICTED 2012
C.J. Miles
Mehmet Okur
   
Washington
   
RESTRICTED 2011
Othyus Jeffers
Larry Owens
Hamady Ndiaye
Nick Young

UNRESTRICTED 2011
Maurice Evans
Josh Howard
Mustafa Shakur
Yi Jianlian    

RESTRICTED 2012
JaVale McGee

UNRESTRICTED 2012
None

(P) = Player option
(T) = Team Option
(ETO) = Rarly Termination Option

The Celtics will have $29.8 million committed to 3 players; Pierce, Rondo and Bradley. They will own the rights to Jeff Green if they give him his $5.9 million qualify offer. They will also have two cap holds for their 2011 and 2012 first round draft picks(JaJuan Johnson and someone else) and own the rights to their 2011 and 2012 second round picks(E'Twuan Moore and someone else).

An estimate of cap holds due to draft picks would be about $3 million or less.

The Celtics will probably not be receiving the Clippers #1 pick until 2013 as they would somehow or another have to be assigned a pick outside the top 10 in whatever manner the NBA determines the 2012 draft. This is extremely unlikely.

The Celtics would of course have cap holds counting against all their other free agents but may guess is they will probably renounce any they don't re-sign and if they re-sign any it would be at bargain basement prices only as they could conceivably have enough cap space to sign 2 free agents at near max level deals if the cap is set at around $58 million or so.

So what would you do.

Obvious the big target has to be Dwight Howard.

What I might try to do is let Howard know you are trying to sign and trade for Chris Paul. Let Paul know that you wish to sign Howard and present a sign and trade to new orleans for his services sending Rondo and maybe Green and picks to the Hornets. Then sign Davis West, letting him know ahead of time what is going on. Then with the $2.5 million extra exception for teams under the cap re-sign Ray Allen for two years.

Starters would be:

Chris Paul
Ray Allen
Paul Pierce
David West
Dwight Howard

And the bench, well fill them out with vet minimum guys and rookies. Heck, even KG could be a vet minimum guy.

Yeah, yeah, I'm dreaming but given everything that is available, the flexibility given the Celtics financial situation, the very limited opportunity to still use sign and trade(in the proposal it was two years, the next could be only one), anything is possible.

Maybe this is why Wyc groubeck has been seen as one of the Hawk owners looking to bypass the season. He doesn't have to pay the exorbitant payroll he has this year and when it all comes back he has a ton of ability to manipulate the team. Heck if he doesn't land Howard, because there was no season, Nene, Tyson Chandler, Samuel Dalambert and DeAndre Jordan will still be available and Roy Hibbert, Brook Lopez, Chris Kaman and JaVale McGee could be had, possibly.

You never know because once the CBA is completed sometime late next spring or early summer(if not before) that going to make next year's free agency time, one of the craziest ever.

[KGs Knee]

Wow!

That is quite a post, I can only imagine the amount of effort it took.  And all for a thread that probably won't get 10 replies.

I actually think that it could be one crazy FA summer if it plays out this way, and would be crazy exciting.  Just can't really wrap my mind around it with the lockout being what it is right now.

TP for the effort though!

[chambers]

Good post, TP.

I think we have a much bigger chance of signing Howard than people think. He respects the Celtics as an organisation and a personal respect from being punished by them for all these years in the East.

I have also though about David West and hopefully he'll recover from his injury well- although they are never the same.
Good thing is that his game doesn't rely too much on athleticism and a bad knee can't hurt his sweet 15 footer too much.
West will have a lot pursuers though. He could follow Chris Paul but it would be some serious sweet Irish luck if landed both those cookies and DW12.

Here's to another 5-6 years of Celtics as a top 4 contender in the NBA. We've had it good the last few years and I don't want another drought. Please Lord!
Cannot wait to find out what happens.

[boom]

Am I the only one that doesn't want DH? I'd rather have Rondo and Josh Smith over CP3 and Dwight "Elbows" Howard.

[slamtheking]

Is it just me or is anyone else thinking that list of FA's is a list of has-beens and never-weres?

If they go for Dwight and miss out, they're in for a long, long rebuilding process.

[chambers]

Am I the only one that doesn't want DH? I'd rather have Rondo and Josh Smith over CP3 and Dwight "Elbows" Howard.

yes you are the only one.

No but seriously, you are the only one.
I mean Josh Smith shoots about 30% from the field, can't play defense for the most part. He is a human highlight reel but so was Ricky Davis.
With that combo you mentioned,we would have a small forward and point guard who both can't shoot. Our shooting guard better be able to play all 4 quarters and shoot the lights out. I mentioned it in another post about Smith, and that is that the Celtics have extremely annoying patches where their scoring dries up- even with Pierce and Ray out there. This is enhanced by Rondo's shooting problems when teams sag.
(Chris Paul would be so good for this in a pick and roll situation with Howard- they would completely dominate everyone)
Smith sounds exciting in theory, particularly paired up with Rondo. But my guess is that after a season of him bricking shot after shot and shooting us out of games we might get sick of him early on in a long term deal.
He just doesn't fit in with our style of play (slow, controlled, executing multiple picks/cuts etc). Unless we want to change to a run and gun team like Miami.
I would take Smith in a trade for Jeff Green but we'd have to give up a lot more than just Green.

[Edgar]

We have a chance at Scal?

WoooHooo.



p.s. Very Nice Post

[gpap]

Am I the only one that doesn't want DH? I'd rather have Rondo and Josh Smith over CP3 and Dwight "Elbows" Howard.

Let me answer that for you. Yes, yes, yes and yes.
Did I mention yes? Don't like Rondo, never have.

[Inside-Out]

Is it just me or is anyone else thinking that list of FA's is a list of has-beens and never-weres?

If they go for Dwight and miss out, they're in for a long, long rebuilding process.

No kidding...the FA options look just terrible beyond DH.

So bad that I wouldn't bet the farm on landing him.  I'd rather lock up talent long-term for reasonable money than have Rondo, an aging Pierce, nobody, and be forced to throw money away overpaying the wrong guy.

JG's game can complement almost any other.  Sign him for some amount less than Rondo makes for the long term.

Take the BPA with the full MLE for however many years are allowed (SG, PF, C) with an eye toward taking Ray, KG, and JO's spots (preferably Ray or JO's).  A 6th-man caliber backup combo guard would be okay, a strong playmaker and shooter.

[gpap]

Tommy point for the OP of this post. I REALLY hope CP3 and D12 are the starting PG and C on opening night 2012. One can only hope and dream

[diconzo]

I think must pursues on this list to pair with (Pierce,Rondo,Trey J,Bradley) are:

Kevin Garnett
Ray Allen
Dwight Howard
Jeff Green
Delonte
Glen Davis (for the right price)
Ben Wallace (unless he retires)
OJ Mayo
Chris Paul (if Danny decides to trade Rondo)
Chauncey Billups
Carl Landry
David West (plenty of time to rehab now)
Jason Thompson
Samuel Dalembert
Josh Howard
Joel Pryzbilla
Marquis Daniels
Antwan Jamison
DeSagana Diop (Player option for 2012-13 season, but likely to get amnestified)

A GREAT offseason in my opinion would be something like this:

PG) Rondo, West, Bradley
SG) Mayo, Ray, Marquis
SF) Pierce, Green, Howard
PF) KG, Jamison, Trey J
C) Howard, Pryzbilla, Diop

Not sure if it could work though,

Rondo: 11M
Pierce: 16M
Ray: 2M
KG: 2M
Green: 5M
Howard: 17M (or whatever max is)
Bradley: 1M
Trey J: 1M
West: min
Diop: min
Pryzbilla: min
Howard: 2M
Marquis: min
Jamison: min
Mayo: 6M (MLE or close to it

comes up to around 68 millon. Lower than our salaries now, but theres a lot of if's in there. Like getting Jamison, Diop, Pryzbilla, and West to take just the min. Also getting Ray and KG to sign for 2M each. Possible, but it would take a little Auerbach charm.

[raynman]

Rondo and Howard would be fine.. but we gotta surround them with a bunch of shooters and role players..
I'm thinking :
Rondo Howard Green Pierce West Johnson Bradley Moore
then
Willie Green/Beno Udrih
DeShawn Stevenson/Daequan Cook
O.J. Mayo / Courtney Lee
Shane Battier / Josh Howard
Anthony Tolliver/Carl Landry
Chris Wilcox  / Fesenko/Mahinmi
I wanna get some high-flyers (have you seen rondo's sick alley-oops this summer?), but obviously, doc's style isn't run-and-gun.. Of course, the return of KG and Ray-Ray would be awesome, too!

[Liam W]

Kevin Garnett needs to go as does Ray Allen

We cant keep these guys because there so old!

We need to get rid ASAP and start making moves for 2012

Trade KG for a Big + Get Ray Allen off the books too, Or maybe some Draft Picks or something, just get them off the books

My possible starting 5 for 2012


Rondo
Marcus Thornton < was a beast last season for Sac
Pierce < He maybe has 1 more year left, then cut our ties
West < someone suggested David West, he would be a good pick up
Howard < Throw big money at him. eg 5yr $100mill $20mill per season. maybe do a front loaded contract


This team defo needs to get younger if we are to have any chance of another Championship and that has to start by getting rid of KG, Allen + maybe Pierce

We have to blow this up now + move on with a Rondo, Green + Howard combination. Something like that

The Longer we keep these old guys the worse it is for the future of the Boston Celtics. Trade now and get some value for them while we still can!