It is true that brinksmanship in negotiations can backfire, leading to a poor resolution, or none at all. There are people who are irrational, or don't look at the real costs of their intransigence, and that makes it a bad move.
But that is for negotiation tactics in general, not for the NBA vs. NBPA situation specifically. In THIS scenario, there are factors at play that make it an arguably good strategy to hold out as long as possible. What upside is there to an early settlement that is far from your ideal case, for either side on this issue? There's nothing serious at stake until the season starts losing games. Good will does not last. Also complicating matters, is that this isn't some one-off settlement: not only will this be a multi-year CBA, but it is undoubtedly setting the table for all future CBA negotiations as well. The players are being asked to come down mightily from the status quo, and they have a great incentive to limit the bleeding even ten years out from today.
So sure, I agree with what you say in principle, but I think that for this particular situation that certain things don't necessarily apply. Sometimes when you have negotiations where the "nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to" mantra holds sway, you can be loose with ideas and conceptual proposals. But I'd bet you a TP against a shiny nickel that the mood in there is more of the "two strange cats in the same room" variety, and both sides rightly assume that any hypothetical concessions will be viewed as a new baseline for negotiation, as they are 1) distru****l of each other, and 2) really pretty far apart to begin with.
My one and a half cents, negotiated down from two cents at the last minute.
EDIT: that is a really funny wordfilter on "full of distrust".