Patriots 53 roster predictions

[Fan from VT]

Globe now reporting Merriweather was cut.
I dont understand the Merriweather cut.
They really couldn't find a taker for him? They really feel like they are better options at safety? Pats are gonna go with Chung, Barrett, Brown and... Ihedigbo?

Wow ... just wow ... don't get that one. Thanks for the updates, C. I'm sure there's a method to the madness, but I don't see it.

This might be good news for Darius Butler.  Maybe they plan to use Dowling a bit at Safety, freeing up addl playing time for Butler.

But, yeah, I'm still scratching my head.

Strange.
Too bad they couldn't trade him.
Pats save 1.2 million off the cap; maybe that will be more useful. I also am a much worse talent than belichek at seeing when players slip. Additionally, the thing about meriweather is that he kind of leveled off as a big hitter, and was always good for one unnecessary roughness penalty per game, and never ever looked upset about drawing such a penalty...and that was before the increased sensitivity about head to head hits. Tough to trust a guy to be on the field who has shown no interest in working out the way the team wants him to (in a contract year!), and has no motivation to change his game to avoid taking personal foul penalties.

[Eja117]

Globe now reporting Merriweather was cut.
I dont understand the Merriweather cut.
They really couldn't find a taker for him? They really feel like they are better options at safety? Pats are gonna go with Chung, Barrett, Brown and... Ihedigbo?

It kinda ticks me off. The guy was a 1rst rounder and a Pro Bowler.  He has attitude problems at a fairly young age. They didn't know this when they drafted him? They didn't see the video of him stomping another player's head in a huge fight?  I was ticked when they let go Lawyer Milloy and that turned out ok, but still. So I'll try to reserve judgement, but I really don't think there's some big surprise that they know that we don't know. I think it's just another horrid draft decision by the Pats.

People have GOT to stop saying Belichek is a draft genius or draft master. He's not. He's absolutely not. How many 1rst and 2nd round picks has he cut before their time? At positions of need? How many fairly high draft choices haven't panned out?  lots. Not just a few. Lots.  Oh but look at the late round picks....like Matt Cassell?  They traded him and Vrabel for a #2.  Who did the #2 turn out to be? Ron Brace?

[Cman]

Globe now reporting Merriweather was cut.
I dont understand the Merriweather cut.
They really couldn't find a taker for him? They really feel like they are better options at safety? Pats are gonna go with Chung, Barrett, Brown and... Ihedigbo?

It kinda ticks me off. The guy was a 1rst rounder and a Pro Bowler.  He has attitude problems at a fairly young age. They didn't know this when they drafted him? They didn't see the video of him stomping another player's head in a huge fight?  I was ticked when they let go Lawyer Milloy and that turned out ok, but still. So I'll try to reserve judgement, but I really don't think there's some big surprise that they know that we don't know. I think it's just another horrid draft decision by the Pats.

People have GOT to stop saying Belichek is a draft genius or draft master. He's not. He's absolutely not. How many 1rst and 2nd round picks has he cut before their time? At positions of need? How many fairly high draft choices haven't panned out?  lots. Not just a few. Lots.  Oh but look at the late round picks....like Matt Cassell?  They traded him and Vrabel for a #2.  Who did the #2 turn out to be? Ron Brace?

I hear you, but I also dont understgand the preoccupation with trying to say BB is a bad drafter or BB is a good drafter. Same with the preoccupation with DA.  I've never seen anyone do such analyses properly (which would involve looking back on a draft after a few years, and re-ranking all the players picked, and then tallying this up in a meaningful way across all the GMs in the league (NBA or NFL), and then doing this for year after year to get a picture of whether someone is a good drafter or bad drafter).

Since no one has done the above or will likely do it in the near future, I think the thing to do is look at the whole picture - after all drafting is not the only way that the team builds over time, there are FAs, trades, and mentoring of young guys currently on the team - and then make an overall assessment.

BTW, the above is not some long-winded way to try to "excuse" BB, it is just a way to say "meh" , let's see which teams consistently win over time.

[Cman]

Pats have signed OG Waters (formerly of the KC Chiefs).
This bolsters the O-line.  I wonder who'll be cut to make room (Tarpinian? Butler?).

[Fan from VT]

Pats have signed OG Waters (formerly of the KC Chiefs).
This bolsters the O-line.  I wonder who'll be cut to make room (Tarpinian? Butler?).

Mike Reiss was saying that one possible roster space move they may make is to place that rookie LB who was a surprise make on the IR so that he stays on the roster for next year, when he'll be more ready, since they like him as a talent but he may not be ready to contribute this year.

[Fan from VT]

Globe now reporting Merriweather was cut.
I dont understand the Merriweather cut.
They really couldn't find a taker for him? They really feel like they are better options at safety? Pats are gonna go with Chung, Barrett, Brown and... Ihedigbo?

It kinda ticks me off. The guy was a 1rst rounder and a Pro Bowler.  He has attitude problems at a fairly young age. They didn't know this when they drafted him? They didn't see the video of him stomping another player's head in a huge fight?  I was ticked when they let go Lawyer Milloy and that turned out ok, but still. So I'll try to reserve judgement, but I really don't think there's some big surprise that they know that we don't know. I think it's just another horrid draft decision by the Pats.

People have GOT to stop saying Belichek is a draft genius or draft master. He's not. He's absolutely not. How many 1rst and 2nd round picks has he cut before their time? At positions of need? How many fairly high draft choices haven't panned out?  lots. Not just a few. Lots.  Oh but look at the late round picks....like Matt Cassell?  They traded him and Vrabel for a #2.  Who did the #2 turn out to be? Ron Brace?

I hear you, but I also dont understgand the preoccupation with trying to say BB is a bad drafter or BB is a good drafter. Same with the preoccupation with DA.  I've never seen anyone do such analyses properly (which would involve looking back on a draft after a few years, and re-ranking all the players picked, and then tallying this up in a meaningful way across all the GMs in the league (NBA or NFL), and then doing this for year after year to get a picture of whether someone is a good drafter or bad drafter).

Since no one has done the above or will likely do it in the near future, I think the thing to do is look at the whole picture - after all drafting is not the only way that the team builds over time, there are FAs, trades, and mentoring of young guys currently on the team - and then make an overall assessment.

BTW, the above is not some long-winded way to try to "excuse" BB, it is just a way to say "meh" , let's see which teams consistently win over time.

I agree. I do think there have been some bad drafts for the pats, but I'd really need to see someone look at every draft haul each year for each team to say whether or not bellichek is good/bad/average.

I want to add that length of keeping late first rounders is a bad measure in and of itself, because talents flame out all the time in the NFL, it's inevitable, and one skill is actually being able to cut a first rounder when you know it's the right football move, and not keep someone just because of pedigree.

[Cman]

Pats have signed OG Waters (formerly of the KC Chiefs).
This bolsters the O-line.  I wonder who'll be cut to make room (Tarpinian? Butler?).

Mike Reiss was saying that one possible roster space move they may make is to place that rookie LB who was a surprise make on the IR so that he stays on the roster for next year, when he'll be more ready, since they like him as a talent but he may not be ready to contribute this year.

This is one of the things I don't understand about the NFL, or maybe just BB.  If they are going to put him on IR, why not do it yesterday?  Then they could keep Merriweather another day (or Tate), try to work out a trade with a team, etc.

[Fan from VT]

Pats have signed OG Waters (formerly of the KC Chiefs).
This bolsters the O-line.  I wonder who'll be cut to make room (Tarpinian? Butler?).

Mike Reiss was saying that one possible roster space move they may make is to place that rookie LB who was a surprise make on the IR so that he stays on the roster for next year, when he'll be more ready, since they like him as a talent but he may not be ready to contribute this year.

Jeff Tarpinian

[Jon]

I'm still not a huge fan of cutting Merriwether.  I think he's been overrated; however, given their depth there, I would've liked to see them hold onto him, even if they only brought him off the bench. 

I do like the Yeatman cut.  As I said yesterday, there really wasn't a point of holding onto a guy who they likely never would've played even if Gronkowski or Hernandez got hurt.  Now they can do the Solder experiment or try to bring back Crumpler.  And Yeatman, Smith, and/or Mills should make the practice squad, giving them further depth. 

[Cman]

I do like the Yeatman cut.  As I said yesterday, there really wasn't a point of holding onto a guy who they likely never would've played even if Gronkowski or Hernandez got hurt.  Now they can do the Solder experiment or try to bring back Crumpler.  And Yeatman, Smith, and/or Mills should make the practice squad, giving them further depth. 

Agreed. I think part of the thinking was, why give a roster spot to someone who we don't think is all that good (no offense to Yeatman if you are reading this ), when we can go a little short at this position, maybe address it later, and in the meantime stay a bit deeper at other positions of need.

[Cman]

Meriweather signed a one year deal with the Bears (who the Pats don't play this year).
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots

Phew.  I was legitimately worried he'd end up with the Jets or some other similarly distasteful team and we'd have to play him and hear about him.

[Eja117]

Globe now reporting Merriweather was cut.
I dont understand the Merriweather cut.
They really couldn't find a taker for him? They really feel like they are better options at safety? Pats are gonna go with Chung, Barrett, Brown and... Ihedigbo?

It kinda ticks me off. The guy was a 1rst rounder and a Pro Bowler.  He has attitude problems at a fairly young age. They didn't know this when they drafted him? They didn't see the video of him stomping another player's head in a huge fight?  I was ticked when they let go Lawyer Milloy and that turned out ok, but still. So I'll try to reserve judgement, but I really don't think there's some big surprise that they know that we don't know. I think it's just another horrid draft decision by the Pats.

People have GOT to stop saying Belichek is a draft genius or draft master. He's not. He's absolutely not. How many 1rst and 2nd round picks has he cut before their time? At positions of need? How many fairly high draft choices haven't panned out?  lots. Not just a few. Lots.  Oh but look at the late round picks....like Matt Cassell?  They traded him and Vrabel for a #2.  Who did the #2 turn out to be? Ron Brace?

I hear you, but I also dont understgand the preoccupation with trying to say BB is a bad drafter or BB is a good drafter. Same with the preoccupation with DA.  I've never seen anyone do such analyses properly (which would involve looking back on a draft after a few years, and re-ranking all the players picked, and then tallying this up in a meaningful way across all the GMs in the league (NBA or NFL), and then doing this for year after year to get a picture of whether someone is a good drafter or bad drafter).

Since no one has done the above or will likely do it in the near future, I think the thing to do is look at the whole picture - after all drafting is not the only way that the team builds over time, there are FAs, trades, and mentoring of young guys currently on the team - and then make an overall assessment.

BTW, the above is not some long-winded way to try to "excuse" BB, it is just a way to say "meh" , let's see which teams consistently win over time.

I see what you're saying, but I think when you flunk on about half of your 1rst, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders then you probably aren't that good a drafter. I expect better results than that.  When you are trading away starting QBs for draft picks that become nothing (I admit I have no idea if Cassel became Butler or Volmer or what. It doesn't matter lots) that's not good trading either. Granted a 4th for Moss and a 2nd for Welker is, but still. 
If someone wants to call me a spoiled Pats fan I'm ok with that, but one has to admit the bad drafting/team  building since about 2005 has totally caught up with this team and it's pretty frustrating seeing other teams surpass you that are doing it right, especially when they do it with guys you could have had. I'm looking in the direction of the Packers, Steelers, and Jets. And I'm exaggerating somewhat.
And this isn't a team that has "won over time" anymore. Since 2004 this team is the Sacramento Kings without the refs screwing us. Sorry. I know the truth hurts, but that's the truth

[Fan from VT]

Globe now reporting Merriweather was cut.
I dont understand the Merriweather cut.
They really couldn't find a taker for him? They really feel like they are better options at safety? Pats are gonna go with Chung, Barrett, Brown and... Ihedigbo?

It kinda ticks me off. The guy was a 1rst rounder and a Pro Bowler.  He has attitude problems at a fairly young age. They didn't know this when they drafted him? They didn't see the video of him stomping another player's head in a huge fight?  I was ticked when they let go Lawyer Milloy and that turned out ok, but still. So I'll try to reserve judgement, but I really don't think there's some big surprise that they know that we don't know. I think it's just another horrid draft decision by the Pats.

People have GOT to stop saying Belichek is a draft genius or draft master. He's not. He's absolutely not. How many 1rst and 2nd round picks has he cut before their time? At positions of need? How many fairly high draft choices haven't panned out?  lots. Not just a few. Lots.  Oh but look at the late round picks....like Matt Cassell?  They traded him and Vrabel for a #2.  Who did the #2 turn out to be? Ron Brace?

I hear you, but I also dont understgand the preoccupation with trying to say BB is a bad drafter or BB is a good drafter. Same with the preoccupation with DA.  I've never seen anyone do such analyses properly (which would involve looking back on a draft after a few years, and re-ranking all the players picked, and then tallying this up in a meaningful way across all the GMs in the league (NBA or NFL), and then doing this for year after year to get a picture of whether someone is a good drafter or bad drafter).

Since no one has done the above or will likely do it in the near future, I think the thing to do is look at the whole picture - after all drafting is not the only way that the team builds over time, there are FAs, trades, and mentoring of young guys currently on the team - and then make an overall assessment.

BTW, the above is not some long-winded way to try to "excuse" BB, it is just a way to say "meh" , let's see which teams consistently win over time.

I see what you're saying, but I think when you flunk on about half of your 1rst, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounders then you probably aren't that good a drafter. I expect better results than that.  When you are trading away starting QBs for draft picks that become nothing (I admit I have no idea if Cassel became Butler or Volmer or what. It doesn't matter lots) that's not good trading either. Granted a 4th for Moss and a 2nd for Welker is, but still. 
If someone wants to call me a spoiled Pats fan I'm ok with that, but one has to admit the bad drafting/team  building since about 2005 has totally caught up with this team and it's pretty frustrating seeing other teams surpass you that are doing it right, especially when they do it with guys you could have had. I'm looking in the direction of the Packers, Steelers, and Jets. And I'm exaggerating somewhat.
And this isn't a team that has "won over time" anymore. Since 2004 this team is the Sacramento Kings without the refs screwing us. Sorry. I know the truth hurts, but that's the truth

There is no magical difference between winning the superbowl and being close to winning the superbowl. In the NFL all you can do is put the best team out there, hope you stay healthy, and hope the bounces go your way at the right times. The 2001 team was absolutely not better than the 2007 team, but the 2001 team won it all: they got luckier at the right time. In 2007, if the refs do their job and call the blatant holding, pats win it all. They've put themselves in a position basically every year for a decade to compete for the title: that's ridiculous.

And again, about drafting: I have no idea how to rank bellichek, except to look at record, since trading/acquiring picks is a skill, drafting the talent is a skill, drafting for impact player is a skill, drafting for depth is a skill, drafting for players you can afford to keep with a hard cap is a skill, cutting ties with draft picks at the right time when there are better FA options available is a skill, and figuring out what to do in the draft when you are always in the low first round is a skill.

All I know is that the NFL draft is the least predictable draft, that the career trajectories of NFL players is the most variable, and that it's one aspect of the most complex team building in all of sports. i think the year to year record speaks for bellichek's overall skill, and i need to see the hitting percentage of all teams relative to draft slot to really know how a drafter is relative to others. And again, there's impact players vs. cost effective depth.

One additional thought: The vast majority of impact NFL players were probably drafted in rounds 2-4, which means EVERY team missed the chance to take them at least once. Every team makes lots of mistakes, and it's easier to see them on the team you follow most closely.

[Cman]

A few other moves,

OT Maneri was released to make room for the OG from KC (Waters).
Long Snapper #2 of the year was let go (Dearth) and LS #3 signed (Aiken).

TEs Yeatman and Smith didn't clear waivers - claimed by Miami and Buffalo.... a double whammy (not only was NE hoping they would end up on the practice squad, but these guys are probably right now spilling all sorts of team secrets to two division rivals).

For those that care, Tate signed on with the Bengals.

As an aside, I like the Waters signing.  It basically sounded like a Meriweather-like situation.  Waters had gone to the pro-bowl a number of years in a row, but just didn't click with the current management.  I particularly like that, since he's coming from KC, he has some Pats connections, which might make the transition a bit easier.

[cman88]

I wonder if this spells for a return of Crumpler...I think the pats are going to have to pick up another tight end...especially with hernandez/gronkowski playing a large part of our offense and running alot of two tight end sets.

either way, I think belichick has had a pretty good reading on players talent and reading things that others might have missed....I mean look at guys like Wes Welker or Danny woodhead who were undrafted and didnt do much on their prior teams..were picked up by the pats and ended up being big playmakers....gronkowski/hernandez look to be 2 of the best TE's