Author Topic: who will cave first? owners or players  (Read 34254 times)

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Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2011, 04:21:12 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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This doesn't really affect who will cave first, but it's a good read:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6874079/psychic-benefits-nba-lockout

I do love no matter how well things are going for billionaires (tax exempt? antitrust exempt?) they can find something to keep whining about.

Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2011, 05:16:16 PM »

Offline mgent

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I think the players should compromise and give in to the league in exchange for new/better refs.

I feel bad for them, first the owners tell them they can't play, but then even if they give up a decent chunk of their money to end the lockout, all they have to look forward to is the refs not letting them play either.
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Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2011, 05:52:17 PM »

Offline PosImpos

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definitely the players.  the owners have all the leverage and all the money.
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Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2011, 05:56:52 PM »

Offline greg_kite

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I think both will give in somewhat.  I read something along the lines of Lamar Odom going from 8.9 mil to 2.6 mil.  If I'm a player that signed a contract for 8.9 mil there is NO WAY in the world I would accept 30% of my original deal.  I don't know if that's goig to be the norm (probably not) but if that's what the owners are expecting the players are not going to accept it.

I can understand changing future contracts, but if something has already been signed I don't see how the owners can expect the terms of old contracts to change.  In my opinion a contract is binding.

Unfortunately there is no end in sight.  Is anyone on Celticblog a billionaire?  If you want to invest I could start a new ABA and the NBA could eventually fold.

Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2011, 05:58:38 PM »

Offline LB3533

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There is a chance owners will fold first because their other businesses may lose profits while their NBA teams are locked out.

Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2011, 06:01:17 PM »

Online Roy H.

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There is a chance owners will fold first because their other businesses may lose profits while their NBA teams are locked out.

Supposedly, though, only 7 or 8 of the owners are making money from their teams.  Therefore, if maximizing profits is the concern, then keeping the league shut down is what makes the most economic sense.


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Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2011, 06:11:49 PM »

Offline Chris

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I think both will give in somewhat.  I read something along the lines of Lamar Odom going from 8.9 mil to 2.6 mil.  If I'm a player that signed a contract for 8.9 mil there is NO WAY in the world I would accept 30% of my original deal.  I don't know if that's goig to be the norm (probably not) but if that's what the owners are expecting the players are not going to accept it.

I can understand changing future contracts, but if something has already been signed I don't see how the owners can expect the terms of old contracts to change.  In my opinion a contract is binding.

Unfortunately there is no end in sight.  Is anyone on Celticblog a billionaire?  If you want to invest I could start a new ABA and the NBA could eventually fold.

I think what they meant was that on future contracts, a player like Odom would be making $2.6 million.  I do not believe the owners had a rollback of current salaries in their proposal.

Now, stranger things have happened (during the NHL lockout, the players agreed to roll back current contracts), but from everything I have read, the owners are not even trying to mess with the current contracts.

I do agree though that the owners will give some ground.  The issue is however, that the longer the lockout goes, the less ground the owners will give, because they will be looking to recoup their losses during their lockout through the collective bargaining. 


Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #22 on: August 23, 2011, 10:40:55 PM »

Offline greenpride32

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I think what they meant was that on future contracts, a player like Odom would be making $2.6 million.  I do not believe the owners had a rollback of current salaries in their proposal.

Now, stranger things have happened (during the NHL lockout, the players agreed to roll back current contracts), but from everything I have read, the owners are not even trying to mess with the current contracts.


If a hard cap is agreed upon, some teams would already be over that limit, so my belief is the owners are angling for salary cuts.   Another reason to believe that is the owners warned if the player's union were to decertify they would try to void all existing contracts.  Any way you want to slice or dice it, the owners are looking to reduce operating costs by reducing player salaries.   

Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #23 on: August 23, 2011, 10:44:20 PM »

Offline greenpride32

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I think both will give in somewhat.  I read something along the lines of Lamar Odom going from 8.9 mil to 2.6 mil.  If I'm a player that signed a contract for 8.9 mil there is NO WAY in the world I would accept 30% of my original deal.  

I think the article was stating a player in Odom's tier (fringe starter to 6-8 in rotation) would only command 2.6mil in the future.  I don't think his salary would actually be reduced by that amount immediately after a new CBA.  But assuming that extreme case, Odom can take 2.6mil to play the next season, or take 0.0mil to sit it out.

Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #24 on: August 23, 2011, 10:55:06 PM »

Offline cman88

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The players will imo. While the season may not start on time I still think they'll cave in time to have a season. L look how fast the tonr of the nfl lockout changed from missing games definitely to not ending up missing anything

Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #25 on: August 24, 2011, 12:14:06 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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If I had to venture a gues, I would say the players will be the ones to cave.  The owners have more leverage currently, and seem more resolute in their demands.  Although, the players may be more resolute then we all think.

That is just what I think will happen though.  As far as I am concerned, I hope the owners break first.  The way they have been acting is just off-putting, to me anyways, and I find their demands to be absurd.  I hope the players win this lock-out, quite simply because I believe their position to be the more "right" (for lack of a better term) based solely on principal.

Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #26 on: August 24, 2011, 06:58:35 AM »

Online Moranis

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I think both will give in somewhat.  I read something along the lines of Lamar Odom going from 8.9 mil to 2.6 mil.  If I'm a player that signed a contract for 8.9 mil there is NO WAY in the world I would accept 30% of my original deal.  I don't know if that's goig to be the norm (probably not) but if that's what the owners are expecting the players are not going to accept it.

I can understand changing future contracts, but if something has already been signed I don't see how the owners can expect the terms of old contracts to change.  In my opinion a contract is binding.

Unfortunately there is no end in sight.  Is anyone on Celticblog a billionaire?  If you want to invest I could start a new ABA and the NBA could eventually fold.

I think what they meant was that on future contracts, a player like Odom would be making $2.6 million.  I do not believe the owners had a rollback of current salaries in their proposal.

Now, stranger things have happened (during the NHL lockout, the players agreed to roll back current contracts), but from everything I have read, the owners are not even trying to mess with the current contracts.

I do agree though that the owners will give some ground.  The issue is however, that the longer the lockout goes, the less ground the owners will give, because they will be looking to recoup their losses during their lockout through the collective bargaining


but if only 7 or 8 owners are making money, then 22 or 23 owners would have no losses to recoup.  The owners can't make that claim nor negotiate like it or it will prove the players correct.
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Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #27 on: August 24, 2011, 09:27:37 AM »

Offline Chris

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I think what they meant was that on future contracts, a player like Odom would be making $2.6 million.  I do not believe the owners had a rollback of current salaries in their proposal.

Now, stranger things have happened (during the NHL lockout, the players agreed to roll back current contracts), but from everything I have read, the owners are not even trying to mess with the current contracts.


If a hard cap is agreed upon, some teams would already be over that limit, so my belief is the owners are angling for salary cuts.   Another reason to believe that is the owners warned if the player's union were to decertify they would try to void all existing contracts.  Any way you want to slice or dice it, the owners are looking to reduce operating costs by reducing player salaries.   

If they do implement a hard cap, they will likely ease into it over a number of years.

There has been discussion of a system that allows teams to cut players, and have them not count against the cap, but still be paid the rest of their contract...possibly spread out over more years.  And I think something like this will almost certainly be part of the new system...although it remains to be seen what the details will be.


but if only 7 or 8 owners are making money, then 22 or 23 owners would have no losses to recoup.  The owners can't make that claim nor negotiate like it or it will prove the players correct.

I am not sure if I am following.  If only 7 or 8 teams are making money, then all those other teams are ONLY losing money.  The whole purpose of this lockout is to make it so those teams are making money going forward.  So, if the lockout causes them to lose even more revenue, then that means that they will have even less money to pay the players, while still making money.

Or let me explain it this way. 

Lets say the revenue next year would be $3 billion if no games are missed, and the owners right now would offer the players $1.5 million of that revenue. 

With each month of games missed, about $375 million of revenue will be lost.  So, lets say they lose 3 months of games.  That would leave the revenue for the year at $1.875 billion. 

However, the owners are going to look at that and instead of saying the players half is $937.5 million, they are going to point out that while no revenue has been coming in over the last 3 months, they have still been building expenses.  They have still been paying rent, paying other employees, still marketing the league, so people will come back, etc. 

So, they are going to run those numbers, and tell the players that they need to cover the other expenses before giving them half of that revenue. 

The 50/50 split would be based on a full season of revenue, however, with every month missed, more and more of that money will have to go to the expenses.

Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #28 on: August 24, 2011, 10:16:38 AM »

Offline chambers

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as that Lamar Odom example mentioned....
Billionaires always beat millionaires.

Pretty much all of the owners are in for the long haul.
I dunno if the players feel the same way.
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Re: who will cave first? owners or players
« Reply #29 on: August 24, 2011, 10:26:39 AM »

Offline Eja117

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definitely the players.  the owners have all the leverage and all the money.
I most closely agree with this.

In the mean time I think you have to work pretty hard to make the NBA lose money, so I don't have too much sympathy for the owners here.