Andrea Bargnani trade proposal

[wdleehi]

Why on earth would anyone want Bargnani?

If they're desperate for a great white hope.

Low blow




He brings certain NBA level skills as a big man.  He is miscasted as a go to guy on a terrible Toronto team.  And as a result, he is overpayed.


But he should have a roll on a good NBA team.  Just not the roll of "star" 

[RyNye]

The problem with WP is that it credits all defense to rebounds, if you don't rebound for your position you rate as a horrible player.

But even if you adjust the stats and treat Bargnani as a shoot guard, he is still a mediocre player. The truth is, his poor rebounding is just ONE of the reasons his efficiency is so low. His high possession rates and lack of team defensive presence more than outweigh the positive benefits of his decent scoring and man-on-man D.

Anyone who's a good rebounder gets rated hugely by that statistic. Do you really think Kevin Love is the best player in the NBA and that Reggie Evans is an all star?

It's arguable that WP48 overrated rebounding at all. Here is a good in-depth look at the statistics behind rebounding. I would argue that other advanced metrics, like PER, merely undervalue rebounding with relation to scoring. It's no secret that scoring in general is hugely overrated (look at Allen Iverson).

Furthermore, Kevin Love isn't the best player in the NBA according to WP48. It's Lebron James, followed by Dwyane Wade, Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant, and Chris Paul. Kevin Love is an ELITE player under WP48, but not the best. In fact, PER ranks him higher in the league than WP does. Hell, we are talking about a player who led the league in triple-doubles this season, and broke the ALL-TIME record for consecutive double-doubles. And it still isn't ranking him as #1. Clearly, rebounding is not as inflated as you claim.

Also, looking at WP stats, Reggie Evans isn't even top 100 in the league.

[Fafnir]

Reggie Evans was producing at a WP48 value of .300+ before his injury

I'm not sure if his play after his return that fell off. But he was an all-star by the metric for the part of the season. Given how few games he played I'd be shocked if his WP48 wasn't still all-star level.

Clearly, rebounding is not as inflated as you claim.

Yes it is.

If you want to know the WP value of a player, the first place you look is his rebounding numbers. It is the best predictor for a player's WP value and contributes the most to the stat.

The WP formula credits the rebounding player with creating a possession for his team, this glosses over the huge effect actual defense plays in forcing low percentage shots.

The post you linked too only considers diminishing returns of rebounds, which isn't really the issue. Of course given that a box score doesn't tell you what a player does defensively, only a team. I'm not sure there is a good answer for this.