Celtics Mailbag: Rajon Rondo Unlikely to Develop Jumper at This Stage of Career

[soap07]

 This is far from true. Improving as a shooter as a player ages is the norm, not the exception. Look at Magic's three point percentage when he got close to 30. Or you can check out PP, Nash, Dirk, even Larry with all the injuries improved his outside shooting at that age.

Not sure what you mean - Pierce shot a career high .412% from 3 his rookie year. He's been a bit inconsistent throughout his whole career, but it's always been there. When he was 24, he shot 40%, his fourth year in the league.

Dirk shot 38% his 2nd and 4th year in the league and that has been his average for his career.

Larry shot 41% from 3 his rookie year, fourth highest of his career. Yeah, he shot a bit more consistently in the second half of his career, but the ability was there early on.

Point is - it's very rare that someone comes into the league with an already terrible shooting ability and really improves on it.

I think Magic/Kidd are exceptions to the rule. Would love to see Rondo be another one though.

[BballTim]

 This is far from true. Improving as a shooter as a player ages is the norm, not the exception. Look at Magic's three point percentage when he got close to 30. Or you can check out PP, Nash, Dirk, even Larry with all the injuries improved his outside shooting at that age.

Not sure what you mean - Pierce shot a career high .412% from 3 his rookie year. He's been a bit inconsistent throughout his whole career, but it's always been there. When he was 24, he shot 40%, his fourth year in the league.

Dirk shot 38% his 2nd and 4th year in the league and that has been his average for his career.

Larry shot 41% from 3 his rookie year, fourth highest of his career. Yeah, he shot a bit more consistently in the second half of his career, but the ability was there early on.

Point is - it's very rare that someone comes into the league with an already terrible shooting ability and really improves on it.

I think Magic/Kidd are exceptions to the rule. Would love to see Rondo be another one though.

   Dirk was above 39% once in his first 6 years, but 5 out of his last 7, 5 of his 6 best years were in the last 7.

  Larry was over 40% once in his first 5 years, 5 of his last 7, 7 of his 8 best years were in the last 7.

  PP? A little murkier, I suppose. He was above 35% 3 of his first 6 years, all of his last 7. His last 5 years were all above his career average.

  Are you really saying that you looked at their three point percentages closely enough to make the comments that you did but were unable to tell that the numbers improved as the players aged?

  And do you have any evidence that it's very rare that someone comes into the league with an already terrible shooting ability and really improves on it?

[soap07]

  And do you have any evidence that it's very rare that someone comes into the league with an already terrible shooting ability and really improves on it?

Don't you think the onus is on you to prove otherwise? How many poor shooters do you want me to name that entered the league as poor shooters and remained poor shooters their whole careers?

Yeah, I'm sure there are a couple exceptions, but I think, in general, that zebras don't change stripes.

Just to get the conversation started, off the top of my head, Tony Allen and Jared Jeffries.

[Celtics18]

 This is far from true. Improving as a shooter as a player ages is the norm, not the exception. Look at Magic's three point percentage when he got close to 30. Or you can check out PP, Nash, Dirk, even Larry with all the injuries improved his outside shooting at that age.

Not sure what you mean - Pierce shot a career high .412% from 3 his rookie year. He's been a bit inconsistent throughout his whole career, but it's always been there. When he was 24, he shot 40%, his fourth year in the league.

Dirk shot 38% his 2nd and 4th year in the league and that has been his average for his career.

Larry shot 41% from 3 his rookie year, fourth highest of his career. Yeah, he shot a bit more consistently in the second half of his career, but the ability was there early on.

Point is - it's very rare that someone comes into the league with an already terrible shooting ability and really improves on it.

I think Magic/Kidd are exceptions to the rule. Would love to see Rondo be another one though.

You are right about Pierce.  He's never been a terrible shooter, but was inconsistent early in his career.  Over the last five years, he's really improved his consistency from beyond the arc and from the free throw line, entering the conversation as a legitimate top level outside shooter. 

[17wasEZ]

I have been saying this for bascially ever.  You can put it in ink.  Rondo will never approach being an average shooter.  It's isn't because he doesn't want it.  He just doesn't have the ability.

And I am tired of hearing comparisons to other guys that seemingly got better.  First of all, someone like Kidd is the exception.  He may have improved more than any other player in NBA hitory.  He is the outlier, not the rule.

  This is far from true. Improving as a shooter as a player ages is the norm, not the exception. Look at Magic's three point percentage when he got close to 30. Or you can check out PP, Nash, Dirk, even Larry with all the injuries improved his outside shooting at that age.

Tony Parker has gone from a below average shooter to a pretty good shooter over the years. So, yeah, I think Rondo can and will improve.  I will say that I wish it was sooner rather than later so that the Big 3 can capitalize on his newfound weapon.

[cman88]

I'm not sure we can even use stats with rondo to say how much he can or can't improve...the guy is a walking exception to the rule already....not often do you pluck an elite pointguard from #24 pick

I have no reason to think he wont at least become a consistent shooter.

[PosImpos]

Almost all players are who they are after 4-5 years in the league.  What you see is what you get.

Once people understand this, maybe they won't be so attached to the idea of holding onto Rondo after the Big 3 are gone (you know, those great shooters he and we all take for granted).



Side note -- many people are referencing the fact that players often increase their shooting percentages as they get older.  The problem with most of these examples is that you're using players who already were solid shooters with good mechanics who improved over time.  It's extremely rare that a player is a poor, inconsistent, unreliable shooter and then develops into a good one late in their career (e.g. the Tony Allens of the world don't often become 3 pt shooters).

[BballTim]

Almost all players are who they are after 4-5 years in the league.  What you see is what you get.

Once people understand this, maybe they won't be so attached to the idea of holding onto Rondo after the Big 3 are gone (you know, those great shooters he and we all take for granted).

  What you see is a player that's the best or arguably the best at his position in terms of passing, court vision, running an offense and defending and a top 3 or so rebounder who's reluctant to score and struggles with his jump shot but is clearly capable of scoring 15-20 points a game. Once people understand this, they won't be so attached to the idea of trading Rondo for any pg that's a good scorer/shooter.

[BballTim]

  And do you have any evidence that it's very rare that someone comes into the league with an already terrible shooting ability and really improves on it?

Don't you think the onus is on you to prove otherwise? How many poor shooters do you want me to name that entered the league as poor shooters and remained poor shooters their whole careers?

  Fine, I was just peeved that I had to go back and look at those numbers again to explain that players who's fg% were better later in their careers than earlier had improved as shooters.

[PosImpos]

Almost all players are who they are after 4-5 years in the league.  What you see is what you get.

Once people understand this, maybe they won't be so attached to the idea of holding onto Rondo after the Big 3 are gone (you know, those great shooters he and we all take for granted).

  What you see is a player that's the best or arguably the best at his position in terms of passing, court vision, running an offense and defending and a top 3 or so rebounder who's reluctant to score and struggles with his jump shot but is clearly capable of scoring 15-20 points a game. Once people understand this, they won't be so attached to the idea of trading Rondo for any pg that's a good scorer/shooter.

Agreed.  Certainly Rondo has a lot of value.  Just because I (or some other people) think he isn't a player you want to build around doesn't mean he isn't an All-Star caliber player with a lot of value to the right team.

Rondo is a very good player, but he's also a seriously limited player.  All that means is he has to be in the right situation in order to be really successful.  Right now, he is; he's surrounded by scorers who are very good jumpshooters.  Once those guys retire and Rondo is expected to carry a much larger offensive burden, the situation will no longer be ideal. 

By the way, it's the same deal with a Rose or a Westbrook.  Those guys are at their best when they play on a team that needs them to score a ton of points and create more shots for themselves than their teammates.  One of the problems the Thunder had this post-season was that their team is developing enough offensive options that they need Westbrook to be more a distributor, but Westbrook is still playing as if he and Durant are the only guys who can score.

[greenpride32]

Agreed.  Certainly Rondo has a lot of value.  Just because I (or some other people) think he isn't a player you want to build around doesn't mean he isn't an All-Star caliber player with a lot of value to the right team.

Rondo is a very good player, but he's also a seriously limited player.  All that means is he has to be in the right situation in order to be really successful.  Right now, he is; he's surrounded by scorers who are very good jumpshooters.  Once those guys retire and Rondo is expected to carry a much larger offensive burden, the situation will no longer be ideal. 

This exactly.  If teams don't have to defend Rondo he can never be a core piece on any team, but a complimentary piece at best.

[BballTim]

Almost all players are who they are after 4-5 years in the league.  What you see is what you get.

Once people understand this, maybe they won't be so attached to the idea of holding onto Rondo after the Big 3 are gone (you know, those great shooters he and we all take for granted).

  What you see is a player that's the best or arguably the best at his position in terms of passing, court vision, running an offense and defending and a top 3 or so rebounder who's reluctant to score and struggles with his jump shot but is clearly capable of scoring 15-20 points a game. Once people understand this, they won't be so attached to the idea of trading Rondo for any pg that's a good scorer/shooter.

Agreed.  Certainly Rondo has a lot of value.  Just because I (or some other people) think he isn't a player you want to build around doesn't mean he isn't an All-Star caliber player with a lot of value to the right team.

Rondo is a very good player, but he's also a seriously limited player.  All that means is he has to be in the right situation in order to be really successful.  Right now, he is; he's surrounded by scorers who are very good jumpshooters.  Once those guys retire and Rondo is expected to carry a much larger offensive burden, the situation will no longer be ideal. 

  I don't know that I agree with "Once those guys retire and Rondo is expected to carry a much larger offensive burden, the situation will no longer be ideal". Certainly they'll replace the big three, and it's likely that they'll get at least decent scoring from the players that they get. I would expect Rondo to carry a larger offensive burden, probably close to the 17 ppg or so he seems to get when one of the big three are out of the lineup. I don't think they're looking for him to get 25 a game in the future and we shouldn't either. Right now we don't get a ton of scoring from the center spot and KG/RA/PP average about 51 a game between the three of them. Get one 20ppg scorer and 15 or so from another replacement and you're in decent shape.

[BballTim]

Agreed.  Certainly Rondo has a lot of value.  Just because I (or some other people) think he isn't a player you want to build around doesn't mean he isn't an All-Star caliber player with a lot of value to the right team.

Rondo is a very good player, but he's also a seriously limited player.  All that means is he has to be in the right situation in order to be really successful.  Right now, he is; he's surrounded by scorers who are very good jumpshooters.  Once those guys retire and Rondo is expected to carry a much larger offensive burden, the situation will no longer be ideal. 

This exactly.  If teams don't have to defend Rondo he can never be a core piece on any team, but a complimentary piece at best.

  He's already been a core piece on a top 3 team in the league for multiple years. You might as well say he'll never be an all-star until he starts scoring more.

[alley oop]

... He's got shooting coaches, practices, short offseasons, long offseasons, you name it, and it isn't making a noticeable difference.

Long offseasons? When? He barely even had an offseason last year.

[Finkelskyhook]

Agreed.  Certainly Rondo has a lot of value.  Just because I (or some other people) think he isn't a player you want to build around doesn't mean he isn't an All-Star caliber player with a lot of value to the right team.

Rondo is a very good player, but he's also a seriously limited player.  All that means is he has to be in the right situation in order to be really successful.  Right now, he is; he's surrounded by scorers who are very good jumpshooters.  Once those guys retire and Rondo is expected to carry a much larger offensive burden, the situation will no longer be ideal. 

This exactly.  If teams don't have to defend Rondo he can never be a core piece on any team, but a complimentary piece at best.

LOL

He was the quarterback of a championship team and the team's best player, for God's sake.