Celtics Mailbag: Rajon Rondo Unlikely to Develop Jumper at This Stage of Career

[BballTim]

Is there any offseason plan for Rajon Rondo to work on his outside shot? If he could keep defenses honest, it would create easier scoring chances across the board.
--Dan

I'll put it this way, Dan: I was in the Celtics' gym last week, and Rajon Rondo wasn't on the floor shooting. He was upstairs, running on the treadmill.

http://www.nesn.com/2011/06/celtics-mailbag-lockout-threatens-final-season-for-kevin-garnett-ray-allen-in-cs-green.html

Found this pretty interesting and hope that he is wrong, but honestly don't know.

There were also some other pretty interesting tidbits in it.

  Next time they do something like that they should give the questions to someone who knows enough about the Celtics to know that the reason Rondo was on the treadmill and not practicing his jumper was because he's *recovering from a dislocated elbow*. Danny said a week or so Rondo was still about 4 weeks away from practicing.

[BballTim]

I have been saying this for bascially ever.  You can put it in ink.  Rondo will never approach being an average shooter.  It's isn't because he doesn't want it.  He just doesn't have the ability.

And I am tired of hearing comparisons to other guys that seemingly got better.  First of all, someone like Kidd is the exception.  He may have improved more than any other player in NBA hitory.  He is the outlier, not the rule.

  This is far from true. Improving as a shooter as a player ages is the norm, not the exception. Look at Magic's three point percentage when he got close to 30. Or you can check out PP, Nash, Dirk, even Larry with all the injuries improved his outside shooting at that age.

[Celtic#9]

I see him developing maybe a little more consistency with his jumper as his career progresses but certainly no delusions of grandeur.  I don't see him ever having that "knockdown jumper" that comes time after time at any point. 

It doesn't just show up one day and Jason Kidd is an exception, not a common occurrence. 

Kidd isn't even a good shooter, what he is an acceptable set shooter from the three point line. He still can't shoot off the dribble or off screens well at all.

He doesn't have to be a go-to shooter. He just has to be able to keep the defenders honest. That is what Kidd does. You can't sag off him too much because he can hit that open 3.

[GreenEnvy]

Wasn't Tony Parker a pretty poor shooter when he first came into the league? He's far from lights-out, but he's decent enough to open up his penetration.

Maybe he was a little younger than Rondo when he developed it.

I don't think Rondo will ever be good. I'd be a little surprised if he even got decent. If it was strictly between the ears, I think he can handle it. If it was just his form, that's also correctable. But with him it is both, and that's very difficult to overcome.

I heard your muscle memory ability peaks in your 20's, so the older he gets the less and less likely he is to develop any consistency. He's got shooting coaches, practices, short offseasons, long offseasons, you name it, and it isn't making a noticeable difference.

[droopdog7]

People continue to miss the point.  There is a HUGE difference bewteen being a poor shooter early on and being what Rondo was coming in to the league.  He was atrocious.  He was Ben Wallace.  

He has ALREADY improved.  You cannot look at Rondo improving from where he is now to average shooter the same way you would a guy that started where Rondo is now and is looking to improve.  Doesn't work that way.  I just think he is at his ceiling.

Look at it this way.  Let's say I and another guys have been playing basketball our whole lives.  I have a 24" vertical and the other guys has a 27" vertical.  Now, if I dedicate myself to a new fancy exercise I potentially could surpass the other guy.  But it isn't the case that I will just keep improving because I will eventually hit my ceiling.  AND, if that guy starts the same exercise, it is very likely that his ceiling is higher than mine.

People are only seeing where Rondo is NOW and thinking, he only has to move up this far.  They are not taking into account what he has already accomplished.  Shooting is a skill just like any other skill.  

And sure, I believe that many players improve their ability to shoot some over their careers.  But I am betting that that it doesn't happen for a lot of players.  And when it is, the improvmet is moderate. That is what seprates Kidd.  He seems to have made a huge leap.

[BballTim]

I see him developing maybe a little more consistency with his jumper as his career progresses but certainly no delusions of grandeur.  I don't see him ever having that "knockdown jumper" that comes time after time at any point. 

It doesn't just show up one day and Jason Kidd is an exception, not a common occurrence. 

Kidd isn't even a good shooter, what he is an acceptable set shooter from the three point line. He still can't shoot off the dribble or off screens well at all.

He doesn't have to be a go-to shooter. He just has to be able to keep the defenders honest. That is what Kidd does. You can't sag off him too much because he can hit that open 3.

  I'd like to see Rondo improve his jump shooting but I'd rather see him get his ft% over 70%. I think if he looked for his offense more his shooting would improve somewhat on its own. He looks at his taking an outside shot as something of a last resort. He does better when he commits to the shot and takes it in rhythm.

[BballTim]

People continue to miss the point.  There is a HUGE difference bewteen being a poor shooter early on and being what Rondo was coming in to the league.  He was atrocious.  He was Ben Wallace.  He has ALREADY improved.  You can say look at Rondo improving from where he is now to average shooter the same way you would a guy that started where Rondo is now and is looking to improve. 

Doesn't work that way.  I just think he is at his ceiling.

And sure, I believe that many players improve their ability to shoot some over their careers.  But I am betting that that it doesn't happen for a lot of players.  And when it is, the improvmet is moderate. That is what seprates Kidd.  He seems to have made a huge leap.

  Kidd didn't make that huge a leap, and that type of improvement is,again, more common than you think.

[Donoghus]

I see him developing maybe a little more consistency with his jumper as his career progresses but certainly no delusions of grandeur.  I don't see him ever having that "knockdown jumper" that comes time after time at any point. 

It doesn't just show up one day and Jason Kidd is an exception, not a common occurrence. 

Kidd isn't even a good shooter, what he is an acceptable set shooter from the three point line. He still can't shoot off the dribble or off screens well at all.

He doesn't have to be a go-to shooter. He just has to be able to keep the defenders honest. That is what Kidd does. You can't sag off him too much because he can hit that open 3.

  I'd like to see Rondo improve his jump shooting but I'd rather see him get his ft% over 70%. I think if he looked for his offense more his shooting would improve somewhat on its own. He looks at his taking an outside shot as something of a last resort. He does better when he commits to the shot and takes it in rhythm.

I would much rather see him improve his free throw shooting as well.

[Fafnir]

I would much rather see him improve his free throw shooting as well.

Yeah that'd have the greatest effect on his game.

[droopdog7]

People continue to miss the point.  There is a HUGE difference bewteen being a poor shooter early on and being what Rondo was coming in to the league.  He was atrocious.  He was Ben Wallace.  He has ALREADY improved.  You can say look at Rondo improving from where he is now to average shooter the same way you would a guy that started where Rondo is now and is looking to improve. 

Doesn't work that way.  I just think he is at his ceiling.

And sure, I believe that many players improve their ability to shoot some over their careers.  But I am betting that that it doesn't happen for a lot of players.  And when it is, the improvmet is moderate. That is what seprates Kidd.  He seems to have made a huge leap.

  Kidd didn't make that huge a leap, and that type of improvement is,again, more common than you think.

I dn't have the numbers.  But I am betting that the kind of improvement Kidd made as a 3-point shooter at least rivals the biggest improvements ever made.  And I am also betting that most guys don't improve as much as you think.

[BballTim]

People continue to miss the point.  There is a HUGE difference bewteen being a poor shooter early on and being what Rondo was coming in to the league.  He was atrocious.  He was Ben Wallace.  He has ALREADY improved.  You can say look at Rondo improving from where he is now to average shooter the same way you would a guy that started where Rondo is now and is looking to improve. 

Doesn't work that way.  I just think he is at his ceiling.

And sure, I believe that many players improve their ability to shoot some over their careers.  But I am betting that that it doesn't happen for a lot of players.  And when it is, the improvmet is moderate. That is what seprates Kidd.  He seems to have made a huge leap.

  Kidd didn't make that huge a leap, and that type of improvement is,again, more common than you think.

I dn't have the numbers.  But I am betting that the kind of improvement Kidd made as a 3-point shooter at least rivals the biggest improvements ever made.  And I am also betting that most guys don't improve as much as you think.

  And I'd guess that if you did have the numbers your opinion would change. Just to get you started, compare Kidd's year by year 3 point percentage to Magic's.

[Vermont Green]

Rondo is a very bad shooter and based on what I have seen, he hasn't improved much.  If there has been an uptick in his percentage, it is because other teams now sag off him by 10' instead of only 5' (and next year it will probably be 15').  No other player in the NBA gets to shoot totally uncontested so comparing stats really misses the point.  Rondo has a long way to go before anyone starts to actually cover him.  He has bad form and a really slow release.

All that said, I don't buy the argument that he isn't working on it or that he is somehow not aware that he needs to improve it.  Rondo is way smarter than that.  I am sure he would love to figure this out and start to make shots.

[droopdog7]

Here are Kidd's split into thirds (roughly).  So over 5% career difference.  Don't have time to look up magic but feel free to do it.


3P      3PA             3P%
568   1737      0.327000576
605   1780      0.33988764
802   2113      0.379555135

[barefacedmonk]

A few days ago (maybe a week?) Danny had said that Rondo's elbow injury will take another 3-4 weeks to heal completely and then he'll work on his game....until then he will continue to workout in the gym.

[BballTim]

Here are Kidd's split into thirds (roughly).  So over 5% career difference.  Don't have time to look up magic but feel free to do it.


3P      3PA             3P%
568   1737      0.327000576
605   1780      0.33988764
802   2113      0.379555135

  Again, I don't think that's as big a jump as you think. Large, yes, but not historically large. Magic's might be 2-3 times as large.