My reasoning for why the Cs can't sign Dwight as a FA

[Cman]

Roy did a great job of laying out how much money the Cs will have to spend on FAs in 2012 here:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=49013.msg1030979#msg1030979

By his calculation, assuming the Cs renounce all FAs and have 2 1st rounders next year, Cs would have about $25M to spend.

Let's assume the Celtics are able to sign Dwight Howard next summer to a deal starting at $20M.  After signing Dwight, but before signing any FAs, the team's depth chart would look like this (I randomly slotted in the two draft picks):

PG: Rondo
SG: (draft pick)
SF: Pierce (draft pick)
PF: JaJuan
C: Howard

Now you have $5M, the LLE and vet min contracts to fill in all those holes. 

Q1: How do you do it?
A1: It is really hard to do, but you could certainly fill the roster.

Q2: Okay, you could fill the roster, but would the team be any good?
A2: Probably not -- it is a team of two All Stars (Rondo, Howard) an aging vet (Pierce) and a bunch of role players. 

Q3: Likelihood of winning a championship?
A3: Low.

Q4: Given A2 and A3, if you are Howard, would you sign with the Cs?
A4: Probably not.  As Howard, I could get about the same amount of money elsewhere (Oklahoma? Clippers?), with probably a better shot at a championship. Or, foreseeing all this, I encourage Orlando to do a sign and trade during the 2011-2012 season.

[BballTim]

Roy did a great job of laying out how much money the Cs will have to spend on FAs in 2012 here:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=49013.msg1030979#msg1030979

By his calculation, assuming the Cs renounce all FAs and have 2 1st rounders next year, Cs would have about $25M to spend.

Let's assume the Celtics are able to sign Dwight Howard next summer to a deal starting at $20M.  After signing Dwight, but before signing any FAs, the team's depth chart would look like this (I randomly slotted in the two draft picks):

PG: Rondo
SG: (draft pick)
SF: Pierce (draft pick)
PF: JaJuan
C: Howard

Now you have $5M, the LLE and vet min contracts to fill in all those holes. 

Q1: How do you do it?
A1: It is really hard to do, but you could certainly fill the roster.

Q2: Okay, you could fill the roster, but would the team be any good?
A2: Probably not -- it is a team of two All Stars (Rondo, Howard) an aging vet (Pierce) and a bunch of role players. 

Q3: Likelihood of winning a championship?
A3: Low.

Q4: Given A2 and A3, if you are Howard, would you sign with the Cs?
A4: Probably not.  As Howard, I could get about the same amount of money elsewhere (Oklahoma? Clippers?), with probably a better shot at a championship. Or, foreseeing all this, I encourage Orlando to do a sign and trade during the 2011-2012 season.

  First of all, it's not for one year, it's for a number of years. I don't think it would take Danny too long to put together a top team if he already had Rondo and Howard. Secondly, I'm very skeptical that players are going to be getting contracts that start at $20M in the new CBA.

[wdleehi]

You do it.


If it take a year or two to fill in the depth, go for it. 



It is harder to get the centerpiece of your team then it is getting the role player. 



Just look at the dark ages for the Celtics.  Most years, the Celtics had all the role players they needed.  They didn't have enough of a centerpiece to win. 


They add KG and Ray, they had the centerpiece.  It was the role players that there was questions. 

[slamtheking]

Roy did a great job of laying out how much money the Cs will have to spend on FAs in 2012 here:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=49013.msg1030979#msg1030979

By his calculation, assuming the Cs renounce all FAs and have 2 1st rounders next year, Cs would have about $25M to spend.

Let's assume the Celtics are able to sign Dwight Howard next summer to a deal starting at $20M.  After signing Dwight, but before signing any FAs, the team's depth chart would look like this (I randomly slotted in the two draft picks):

PG: Rondo
SG: (draft pick)
SF: Pierce (draft pick)
PF: JaJuan
C: Howard

Now you have $5M, the LLE and vet min contracts to fill in all those holes. 

Q1: How do you do it?
A1: It is really hard to do, but you could certainly fill the roster.

Q2: Okay, you could fill the roster, but would the team be any good?
A2: Probably not -- it is a team of two All Stars (Rondo, Howard) an aging vet (Pierce) and a bunch of role players. 

Q3: Likelihood of winning a championship?
A3: Low.

Q4: Given A2 and A3, if you are Howard, would you sign with the Cs?
A4: Probably not.  As Howard, I could get about the same amount of money elsewhere (Oklahoma? Clippers?), with probably a better shot at a championship. Or, foreseeing all this, I encourage Orlando to do a sign and trade during the 2011-2012 season.

I could be wrong but if a team is under the cap, they have no exceptions so no LLE --> just the $5 mill and vet mins.

I can't see a $20 mill contract for anyone, period.  Nevermind the likelihood the new CBA will cap max contracts at less than that but Dwight is not worth hamstringing a franchise financially.  No player is.  That's how Minnesota screwed themselves with Garnett and Charlotte with Larry Johnson --> awarding huge contracts to one player and not leaving themselves the financial flexibility to fill out the roster.

[Cman]

You do it.


If it take a year or two to fill in the depth, go for it.  



It is harder to get the centerpiece of your team then it is getting the role player.  
 

But you're missing my point.  My point is that Howard would be less inclined to sign with the team, given the uncertainty surrounding the team.

In other words, the point of the post is captured in Q4 and A4.  Everything else leads up to that...

[jc3celticsphan]

hmmm maybe if there is an MLE and LLE we can have ray and kg split it, Im sure they would sign for a season or 2.

[wdleehi]

You do it.


If it take a year or two to fill in the depth, go for it.  



It is harder to get the centerpiece of your team then it is getting the role player.  
 

But you're missing my point.  My point is that Howard would be less inclined to sign with the team, given the uncertainty surrounding the team.

In other words, the point of the post is captured in Q4 and A4.  Everything else leads up to that...

What team would have cap space and loaded?

[Cman]

I can't see a $20 mill contract for anyone, period.  Nevermind the likelihood the new CBA will cap max contracts at less than that but Dwight is not worth hamstringing a franchise financially.  No player is.  That's how Minnesota screwed themselves with Garnett and Charlotte with Larry Johnson --> awarding huge contracts to one player and not leaving themselves the financial flexibility to fill out the roster.

I hear you.  Add that to the reasons why it is unlikely that Howard will join the Cs as a FA.

[rondohondo]

don't you love when people ask themselves questions and then answer them as if there is no other answer?

Is that you BBD ?

 

[Cman]

don't you love when people ask themselves questions and then answer them as if there is no other answer?

Is that you BBD ?

 

Sorry just the way I think.

Or, channeling, BBD, maybe I should write "this is just the way Cman thinks".

[GranTur]

Celtics would be the only team with tons of cap space and two all stars already (Rondo and Pierce).

Rondo, Pierce, and Howard would be an insane big three. Ray and KG will sign for vet mins because they want to win more than they want money.

[Cman]

You do it.


If it take a year or two to fill in the depth, go for it.  



It is harder to get the centerpiece of your team then it is getting the role player.  
 

But you're missing my point.  My point is that Howard would be less inclined to sign with the team, given the uncertainty surrounding the team.

In other words, the point of the post is captured in Q4 and A4.  Everything else leads up to that...

What team would have cap space and loaded?

Depends on the cap and depends on whether there's a cap on max contracts.  Without doing a thorough analysis, here's some ideas:

(A) New York Knicks: Anthony, Stoudamire, Balkman, Shumpert, ~$20M to spend

(B) Oklahoma: Durant, a bunch of other players, ~$18M to spend if they don't extend QO to Westbrook.

(C) LA Clippers: Giffin, Eric Gordon, Mo Williams, Ryan Gomes, a few others, ~$25+M to spend.

[Cman]

Celtics would be the only team with tons of cap space and two all stars already (Rondo and Pierce).

Rondo, Pierce, and Howard would be an insane big three. Ray and KG will sign for vet mins because they want to win more than they want money.

What about the Knicks (Stoudamire, Anthony), whose all stars are younger (and hence the window will last longer)?

Also, even though there's only one all star on the Thunder, I'd argue that Durant>Rondo+Pierce, especially given that Pierce is on the downside of his career.

[wdleehi]

Celtics would be the only team with tons of cap space and two all stars already (Rondo and Pierce).

Rondo, Pierce, and Howard would be an insane big three. Ray and KG will sign for vet mins because they want to win more than they want money.

What about the Knicks (Stoudamire, Anthony), whose all stars are younger (and hence the window will last longer)?

Their first choice is Paul. 

[Cman]

Celtics would be the only team with tons of cap space and two all stars already (Rondo and Pierce).

Rondo, Pierce, and Howard would be an insane big three. Ray and KG will sign for vet mins because they want to win more than they want money.

What about the Knicks (Stoudamire, Anthony), whose all stars are younger (and hence the window will last longer)?

Their first choice is Paul.  

LeBron was their first choice last summer and they had to settle for their second choice.

Maybe they can't get Paul in 2012, so they settle for their second choice: Howard.