Glen Davis v.s. Jeff Green (Good Deal/Bad Deal-guess which is which)

[KGs Knee]

Both are free agents this year.  Baby is unrestricted, Green restricted.

Now a lot has been discussed around these parts as to the merits of either, and whether either should be brought back.  I think it is safe to assume most want Baby gone, while most would be amenable to Green returning.

We here in Boston tend to be rather harsh on our own.  So, what do those outside of Boston think?  Well, here are a few excerpts on the pair taken from ESPN (links provided)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=thorpe_david&id=6661408
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=6696823

We've discussed who the top-tier free agents are, as well as some guys that teams should be warned about. Now we'll take a look at some players worth considering as potential bargains. Quite simply, these are guys that can produce beyond what I'd consider their current perceived value.

1.  Glen Davis, F, Boston Celtics

Davis embodies an accomplished role player with excellent career numbers, in terms of wins and big plays made in important games. He's considered a good locker room guy, easy to get along with and open to coaching from the staff and veteran players. Now that he's a respected vet himself and has played in dozens of tense playoff games despite being just 25, teams needing "glue guys" will target Davis as someone who can do more than just play a role. He brings all those "war" stories with him, not to mention a vast knowledge of how to play elite-level team defense.

Buyer beware in free agency. Last July, the New Jersey Nets gave Travis Outlaw the biggest contract of the four free agents they signed after striking out on the summer's big prizes, while the Phoenix Suns lured Josh Childress back from Greece with a five-year deal as part of a sign-and-trade with the Atlanta Hawks. Less than 12 months later, both teams would love to get out of those contracts. After colleague Chris Palmer looked at the top-tier guys, here's a warning that the history of free agency shows more misses than hits. Which players could be risky signings this summer? Here are five who appear overvalued.

Jeff Green, F, Boston Celtics


Still a couple of years from reaching his peak, Green should be an ideal alternative to the fading veterans so common in free agency. Yet instead of getting better during his mid-20s, Green has stagnated or even gone backward in his development. His flaws were spotlighted after he was dealt to Boston by the Oklahoma City Thunder at midseason in a deal unpopular among Celtics fans. Green failed to win over the skeptics with his performance and was largely a nonfactor during the postseason.

Green was more or less the same player in Boston he was in Oklahoma City, but the bigger stage exposed a national audience to the shortcomings that led the Thunder to deem him expendable. It also dispelled the notion that Green's issue was playing out of position as a power forward for Oklahoma City. Green played both forward positions with the Celtics, and as a small forward, his poor outside shooting tended to shrink the floor on offense. The danger is that Boston invested so much in Green that the front office will feel the need to re-sign him as a restricted free agent.

Now, I think both writers are missing a little when it comes to the whole story regarding both players, but, it is interesting to see what others think, especially Davis being his #1 bargain.  Anyways, just food for thought.

EDIT:  Chris Forsberg's take on the subject can be found here: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics

[TradeProposalDude]

That is a very "rose colored" view of Glen Big Baby. Does this writer intentionally omit that Baby has been known to have poor shot selection late in games, be vocal with the media about what he believes to be a diminishing role, as well as the occasional meltdown that leads to a desire for a nickname change and/or a weeping?

At the same time, I do want Glen back, but only because there aren't any better bench options that can score and play defense as well as he does. Do I think he needs to modify his game a little, by focusing his game on the blocks a little bit more? Sure. But we've been spoiled as Celtics fans with the level of talent on our team. Big Baby has been irritating with his play and comments of late, but don't let them detract you from how effective he is at carrying out his role when focused.

As for Jeff Green, I can't say I disagree with this writer's description. But I want him back. There is a part of me that wants DA to prove the critics wrong by giving Jeff Green a reasonably sized contract (3-4 years, $15-20 MIL?) because he gave up a lot to get him and thus, I want Green to be given opportunities to dispel the notion that he was a disaster.

The part of Green's game that annoys me the most is the turnovers. Every game he seems to dribble the ball off his foot and all the while he just doesn't seem to care. However, the versatility shown in his short career to this point with the C's is actually encouraging. I like that he can post up and shoot the outside J.

With Green, he tends to succeed in an up tempo game because of his athleticism. We often played a slowed down pace which neutered Green's game. With Bradley, Jua Juan and all on board I hope Doc starts committing to an uptempo game because it would cater to these players strengths better.

[KGs Knee]

That is a very "rose colored" view of Glen Big Baby. Does this writer intentionally omit that Baby has been known to have poor shot selection late in games, be vocal with the media about what he believes to be a diminishing role, as well as the occasional meltdown that leads to a desire for a nickname change and/or a weeping?

At the same time, I do want Glen back, but only because there aren't any better bench options that can score and play defense as well as he does. Do I think he needs to modify his game a little, by focusing his game on the blocks a little bit more? Sure. But we've been spoiled as Celtics fans with the level of talent on our team. Big Baby has been irritating with his play and comments of late, but don't let them detract you from how effective he is at carrying out his role when focused.

I agree that bringing Davis back may not be all that bad.  He really needs to get his mind right.  He can bring a lot to the table when he is focused.  For his sake, whether he returns or not, I hope he does get his mind right.  He is doing himself a disservice otherwise.

[CelticsFanNC]

  I would be fine with Davis back as the 4th BIG being paid what a 4th BIG deserves to be paid.  As an energy guy who's number one priority is crashing the glass with playing defense a close second.  I'd be happy with that.

  The problem is Glen Davis wont be happy with that.  He thinks he should be a starter and wants to be paid as such.

  I have huge issues with the way he played last season even when he was playing well early on.  He thinks he's Kevin McHale and has earned the right to be a black hole on offense.  All ball movement stops as soon as he touches the ball.  That is completely the opposite of how this team plays when it plays it's best.

[Cman]

TP to the OP for providing a non-CB view on these guys and their value.

I think that the ESPN commentator raises some good points about both players.  Maybe if enough GMs read the article, then (a) no one will pursue Jeff Green and the Cs will easily resign him to the QO and (b) Davis' value will skyrocket and Danny will be able to work a nice S&T....(yes, Im being slightly tongue and cheek).

[mctyson]

Almost any Celtics fan will side with Green.  Yes he came over in a controversial trade that may or may not have damaged the championship chances of last season.  But he was only here for a few months and did have a crucial role on the team in the playoffs.  Most everyone believes that he will be better after a full training camp and a 20+ minute committment for playing time.

We have seen all BBD has to offer.  At times, he is arguably one of the best bench players in the NBA - an agile 4/5 with excellent shooting touch, one of the best FT shooters on the team, decent interior post moves, great energy and solid defense, and the best charge taker in the league.  Other times -he is a liability in the post because he can't jump, which makes his rebounding ability lackluster for a 4/5, and combine that with all the talk about his weight problems and his rocky relatioship with Doc and you have to wonder if he has truly peaked as a player.  

It also matters who will replace either two assuming one (or both) leave.  I am not if favor of letting Green go at all because I don't see a like replacement at his age/cost.  I would let BBD go if we can replace him with a more athlectic big, with more defense and rebounding, at a similar age/cost.  I would not let BBD go for a aging veteran who could get injured.  Plus the years/money each player may get on the market will affect this.

My guess:  Green is given and one year offer and accepts.  BBD is given a one year offer (plus team option) and rejects for a longer duration contract.

[JohnBagleyValueMeal]

It seems like what's happening is that we're all setting BBD's value based on his worst performances (the 2011 playoffs) and we're setting Green's value based on performances in our imaginations (his potential, fantasies of him and Rondo running fast breaks).

I don't think either is the right way to evaluate talent.

That said, I think BBD's psychological/emotional state, and the way he's talked about Doc in the media recently, will mean he'll be moving on, and that'd probably be for the best. But I don't think we should overlook how much he contributed just because he stunk it up for 3 months.

As for Green...I don't think you can live on "upside" forever. He's got to start delivering, and people need to stop making excuses for him.

[LooseCannon]

It seems like what's happening is that we're all setting BBD's value based on his worst performances (the 2011 playoffs) and we're setting Green's value based on performances in our imaginations (his potential, fantasies of him and Rondo running fast breaks).

Even before the 2011 playoffs, even when BBD was at his best earlier in the season, I believed that he was not a guy you would want as a starter.  I don't believe the same thing about Jeff Green.

Davis underperformed during the playoffs, but he was probably overperforming at the beginning of the season and his true value is less than that level.  I'd suggest that there are some people who overvalue the best three months of Baby's career.

We can argue about how much upside Green has, but I think it's pretty clear that Davis (who is a few months older) probably has less upside than Green.

[Evantime34]

I think we sign Green to the qualifying offer and the only way we sign him for more years is if he signs an offer sheet. Even if he does sign an offer sheet I wouldn't be surprised if we did a sign and trade for him.

If Glen Davis gets big money from another team, more power to him. Not sure how much of a bargain he will be after he misses open jumper after open jumper and doesn't crash the boards.

[Spilling Green Dye]

I honestly don't trust nba insiders too much b/c they can only go so far in watching each player for each team, etc.  More often than not they piggy back off general opinions.  Nonetheless I'm hoping the rest of the league reads this and overpays for Davis.

My dream scenario is that Davis signs with the Miami Heat.  I'd love to watch him start there if Haslem goes down again lol.

[Cman]

I honestly don't trust nba insiders too much b/c they can only go so far in watching each player for each team, etc.  More often than not they piggy back off general opinions.  Nonetheless I'm hoping the rest of the league reads this and overpays for Davis.

My dream scenario is that Davis signs with the Miami Heat.  I'd love to watch him start there if Haslem goes down again lol.

If that happens, we'll call him our "secret weapon".
 

[mgent]

Baby's gonna want twice what he's worth (8+) and Green is gonna want 3x what he's worth (around 12mil).  Furthermore neither player is what we need right now.  Both are horribly bad deals. 

[Chris]

Baby's gonna want twice what he's worth (8+) and Green is gonna want 3x what he's worth (around 12mil).  Furthermore neither player is what we need right now.  Both are horribly bad deals. 

This isn't about what they want, it is about what they are going to get. 

Davis may want $8 million, but I think there is a chance he may struggle to get the $4 million he is actually worth...at least on a long term deal.

Green on other hand might get a little more than he is worth (maybe about $8 million per), depending on what the new CBA looks like, and how many teams are scared away from restricted free agents.

Ultimately, I agree with this article.  I think Davis is going to be a bargain this summer, because teams are going to be more willing to give their money to guys like Landry, who have less question-marks, and Davis might be forced to look at low ball offers, and very short "prove it" deals.  Green on the other hand still will likely be paid for his "potential", and someone will give him money based on what he can be, rather than what he is.

[Marcus13]

I think we're going to keep them both.  Baby is going to re-sign after he tests Free Agency and realizes that the deal he is looking for just isn't out there.

And Lord knows nobody is going to want Jeff Green at this point.  We'll get him back for the QO

[GreenEnvy]

I don't know what these guys were looking at. As bad as Jeff Green appeared to be, Big Baby was so much worse. The guy was so bad he went out and not only hired a sports psychologist, he felt the need to tell the public that he did.

I'm pretty much done with him on this team. I appreciate what he brought to the team, especially when we were shorthanded, but I think it's time both parties went their separate ways. We need a big who plays like a big, and Big Baby needs to become the starter and All-Star only he believes he is.

Now unless there is no more MLE, then there is no reason to bring him back. Without the MLE, we have little cap flexibility. We may need to bring BBD back out of desperation.

But if there is an MLE, since we don't need a PG, SG or SF (assuming we retain Jeff Green), we only need a big. With KG and JO, we need someone who can definitely give us minutes. I'd want a guy who is 6'10"+ who can rebound and defend, the scoring isn't as important for a backup. Johnson will help, but if we have championship aspirations, we shouldn't rely on a late first-round pick too much.


Jeff Green will be significantly better next season IMO. He has a very good all around game that both he and Doc didn't have the time to figure out how to use in the C's system. I doubt anyone throws a ton of money at him, so we should retain him fairly easily, either with the QO or matching someones MLE offer.