Minnesota & David Kahn

[Cman]

Last night (Thursday) I followed bits and pieces of the draft on celticsblog (I was on a date with my wife, but kept being drawn to my cell phone for updates, she's still sort of p---ed off -- couldn't do any other night, as the evening was structured around a friend's art opening.  probably more info than you needed...).

I noticed a lot of discussion about David Kahn and his trades and the general thinking (based on the limited about that I read) was that he made stupid trades.  I checked out the trades this morning. 

This is basically it:

-Minnesota receives: Brad Miller, 23rd pick and 38th pick  in 2011 draft, future first-round pick
-Houston receives: Jonny Flynn, 20th pick in 2011 draft

So Minny trades a young, bench PG for an aged, bench C.  Moves down 3 spots in the draft, gets the 8th pick in the 2nd round, gets a future first.

Regardless of who Minny selected with the picks (I happen to think they did a poor job there, but that's a different story), that seems like an *awesome* trade for Minny.

I know people are down on Brad Miller, but he's only got two more years left.  Johnny Flynn's minutes were going to drop anyway given that Rubio is coming over, and given that Flynn was already behind Luke Ridnour. Plus, the one thing that the team could really use is a vet presence.  And Miller provides that.

Other than the players involved, Minny only moved down a few spots in a draft widely considered weak overall, but with many players of roughly the same "rank" or "score" in the 20-40 range, meaning they still pick roughly the same type of player, *plus* they pick up a 2nd rounder, *plus* they pick up a *future first rounder*.  Given that Houston sort of sucks right now, and is in the West, and given that this draft is weak... all means that Minny basically traded *up* in a future draft.

That just seems like a clear win to me by Minny.

Please elaborate on why you disagree....   

[FrDrake]

Last night (Thursday) I followed bits and pieces of the draft on celticsblog (I was on a date with my wife, but kept being drawn to my cell phone for updates, she's still sort of p---ed off -- couldn't do any other night, as the evening was structured around a friend's art opening.  probably more info than you needed...).

I noticed a lot of discussion about David Kahn and his trades and the general thinking (based on the limited about that I read) was that he made stupid trades.  I checked out the trades this morning. 

This is basically it:

-Minnesota receives: Brad Miller, 23rd pick and 38th pick  in 2011 draft, future first-round pick
-Houston receives: Jonny Flynn, 20th pick in 2011 draft

So Minny trades a young, bench PG for an aged, bench C.  Moves down 3 spots in the draft, gets the 8th pick in the 2nd round, gets a future first.

Regardless of who Minny selected with the picks (I happen to think they did a poor job there, but that's a different story), that seems like an *awesome* trade for Minny.

I know people are down on Brad Miller, but he's only got two more years left.  Johnny Flynn's minutes were going to drop anyway given that Rubio is coming over, and given that Flynn was already behind Luke Ridnour. Plus, the one thing that the team could really use is a vet presence.  And Miller provides that.

Other than the players involved, Minny only moved down a few spots in a draft widely considered weak overall, but with many players of roughly the same "rank" or "score" in the 20-40 range, meaning they still pick roughly the same type of player, *plus* they pick up a 2nd rounder, *plus* they pick up a *future first rounder*.  Given that Houston sort of sucks right now, and is in the West, and given that this draft is weak... all means that Minny basically traded *up* in a future draft.

That just seems like a clear win to me by Minny.

Please elaborate on why you disagree....   

This is an interesting question since Kahn is so often ridiculed and the trades yesterday were particularly complicated.

that said, I would trust the nerd elvis (aka GM of the Rockets) over Kahn in any trade.  Brad Miller is totally washed up while Flynn was a lottery pick who failed in the triangle surrounded by selfish young guys (like Beasley.)  This trade may make sense but only if you forget that Kahn drafted three point guards in the first round two years ago and traded two of them away for not much.

[Roy H.]

I think the #1 they got is a top-14 protected Memphis pick, but still, it's just very good value.

The Twolves clearly didn't want to take on more youth right now, so they did the smart thing:  they traded back (repeatedly), picking up cash and future picks (a #1 and multiple #2s) which they can potentially trade for a veteran at a later date.

Now, if I was Minnesota, I probably would have stopped after the Houston deal, and would have chosen my favorite overseas player at #23.  However, they decided to pick up cash assets, which is their management's prerogative.  If anybody pegged the value on the #20 pick being a future #1, a bunch of #2s, and probably close to $5 million, we all would have said that was a wild overpay.

Good work by Kahn here.

[Roy H.]

But hey, there *is* something to bash Kahn for, after all:

When the Wolves selected [Tanguy Ngombo] Thursday night, they thought they were getting a 21-year-old golden nugget hidden from all other times. Instead, they found pyrite, because Ngombo is really 26 years old.

There's no reason that general manager David Kahn couldn't have done a rudimentary web search about Ngombo, and he deserves mockery for failing to carry out some basic research.

Link

Of course, we're talking about the 58th pick in the draft, but still, it's a miss.  Ngombo shouldn't have even been draft eligible.

[Eja117]

The 2nd rounders should be virtually dropped from the equation. They belong to the Heat, meaning they'll be picking in the 58ish range.  Also how valuable do you really expect a Memphis first to be 2 years from now? This isn't your father's Grizz anymore.

They traded a very good #20 pick and a good young pg for total total crud. Only it's not even crud now. It's crud in the future.

[Roy H.]

They traded a very good #20 pick and a good young pg for total total crud. Only it's not even crud now. It's crud in the future.

I have a hard time calling the #20 pick "very good", and I particularly object to calling Johnny Flynn a "good young PG".  Young PG, maybe.  Good, no way.

[Eja117]

They traded a very good #20 pick and a good young pg for total total crud. Only it's not even crud now. It's crud in the future.

I have a hard time calling the #20 pick "very good", and I particularly object to calling Johnny Flynn a "good young PG".  Young PG, maybe.  Good, no way.

I'm fine with that analysis, but then we have to say that JaJuan Johnson isn't a very good pick and that Avery Bradley is god awful on a good day, which is something I firmly believe anyway.

[Fan from VT]

Always fun to try to piece this together and judge, because there’s always a certain element of randomness and crapshooting to any trades/drafts, so you really have to look at the big picture. Kahn took over on 5/22/2009 with the draft in June. So, going into his 3rd seasaon, Are the T-Wolves better off now than they were?

Roster before Kahn took over:
Record: 24-58
Mike Miller 1 yr 9.75
Al Jefferson 4 yr 12, 13, 14, 15
Corey  Brewer 2 yr 2.8, 2.7 + QO
Randy Foye 1 yr 3.6 + QO yr
Brian Cardinal 1 yr 6.75
Jason Collins 6.2 expired
Mark Madsen 1 yr 2.84
Kevin Ollie 1.26 expired
Ryan Gomes 1 yr 4.0
Rodney Carney 1.65 expired
Sebastian Telfair 2 yr 2.5, 2.7
Kevin Love 3 yr 3.4, 3.6, 4.6 + QO
Craig Smith 2 yr 2.5, 2.3
Bobby Brown 1 yr .74
Etan Thomas 1 yr 7.9
Shelden Williams  3.4, expired
#6, #18, #28, #45, #47 in 2009 draft
Future protected top 22 in 2009, top 17 in 2010, top 15 in 2011, top 16 in 2012, top 16 in 2013 (#23 in 2010)
As far as I could tell, no other major debts/credits in terms of future firsts owing or owed.

Now:
Beasley, 1 yr 6.3 + QO
Webster, 2 yr 5.3, 5.7 (partial)
Brad Miller, 2 yr 4.8, 5.1 (Partial)
Milicic, 3 yr 4.8, 5.2, 5.7 (partial)
Pekovic 2 yr 4.6, 4.9
Ridnour 3 yr 4.0, 4.0, 4.0
Wes Johnson 3 yr 4.0, 4.3, 5.4 + QO
Kevin Love 1 yr 4.6 + QO
Telfair 2.7, Expired (Bird)
Tolliver 1 yr 2.4
Randolph 1 yr 2.9 + QO
Ellington 2 yr 1.2, 2.1 + QO
Lazar Hayward 3 yr 1.1, 1.2, 2.1 + QO
Ricky Rubio
Derrick Williams
Malcolm Lee
Targuy Ngomo
2012 Utah 1st (top 14 ’12, top 12 ’13, top 9 ’14 triggers swap-option or 2nd rounder)
2013 Memphis 1st (top 14 ’13-’16 or 2012 2nd and cash
2013 NJ 2nd
2014 NO 2nd
2015 Denver 2nd
Owe:
2012 1st
2012 2nd
2013 2nd
2014 2nd



I think i like it better now. There's a lot of directions they could go in to continue to add impactful players. It's poorly constructed as a team right now going into year 3, but there's still this offseason, and no bad contracts, and a lot of flexibility.

[Overrated]

Minnesota did the right thing by taking D. Williams and NOT taking a point guard, so I salute them on that. The trades that came after that... I dunno what to say.

[Fafnir]

Brad Miller is basically dead salary for them, taking on that sort of bad contract has always been worth a highly protected pick.

[KGs Knee]

But hey, there *is* something to bash Kahn for, after all:

When the Wolves selected [Tanguy Ngombo] Thursday night, they thought they were getting a 21-year-old golden nugget hidden from all other times. Instead, they found pyrite, because Ngombo is really 26 years old.

There's no reason that general manager David Kahn couldn't have done a rudimentary web search about Ngombo, and he deserves mockery for failing to carry out some basic research.

Link

Of course, we're talking about the 58th pick in the draft, but still, it's a miss.  Ngombo shouldn't have even been draft eligible.

Yeah, I saw this late last night.  First thing that popped into my head was...WOW!  This guy really is the most incompetent boob there has ever been.  All he had to do was google the dudes name and he would have found his real age.  That has got to be embarrassing!

I will say though, why wasn't the NBA league office on top of this either?

[CaptainJackLee]

Always fun to try to piece this together and judge, because there’s always a certain element of randomness and crapshooting to any trades/drafts, so you really have to look at the big picture. Kahn took over on 5/22/2009 with the draft in June. So, going into his 3rd seasaon, Are the T-Wolves better off now than they were?

Roster before Kahn took over:
Record: 24-58
Mike Miller 1 yr 9.75
Al Jefferson 4 yr 12, 13, 14, 15
Corey  Brewer 2 yr 2.8, 2.7 + QO
Randy Foye 1 yr 3.6 + QO yr
Brian Cardinal 1 yr 6.75
Jason Collins 6.2 expired
Mark Madsen 1 yr 2.84
Kevin Ollie 1.26 expired
Ryan Gomes 1 yr 4.0
Rodney Carney 1.65 expired
Sebastian Telfair 2 yr 2.5, 2.7
Kevin Love 3 yr 3.4, 3.6, 4.6 + QO
Craig Smith 2 yr 2.5, 2.3
Bobby Brown 1 yr .74
Etan Thomas 1 yr 7.9
Shelden Williams  3.4, expired
#6, #18, #28, #45, #47 in 2009 draft
Future protected top 22 in 2009, top 17 in 2010, top 15 in 2011, top 16 in 2012, top 16 in 2013 (#23 in 2010)
As far as I could tell, no other major debts/credits in terms of future firsts owing or owed.

Now:
Beasley, 1 yr 6.3 + QO
Webster, 2 yr 5.3, 5.7 (partial)
Brad Miller, 2 yr 4.8, 5.1 (Partial)
Milicic, 3 yr 4.8, 5.2, 5.7 (partial)
Pekovic 2 yr 4.6, 4.9
Ridnour 3 yr 4.0, 4.0, 4.0
Wes Johnson 3 yr 4.0, 4.3, 5.4 + QO
Kevin Love 1 yr 4.6 + QO
Telfair 2.7, Expired (Bird)
Tolliver 1 yr 2.4
Randolph 1 yr 2.9 + QO
Ellington 2 yr 1.2, 2.1 + QO
Lazar Hayward 3 yr 1.1, 1.2, 2.1 + QO
Ricky Rubio
Derrick Williams
Malcolm Lee
Targuy Ngomo
2012 Utah 1st (top 14 ’12, top 12 ’13, top 9 ’14 triggers swap-option or 2nd rounder)
2013 Memphis 1st (top 14 ’13-’16 or 2012 2nd and cash
2013 NJ 2nd
2014 NO 2nd
2015 Denver 2nd
Owe:
2012 1st
2012 2nd
2013 2nd
2014 2nd



I think i like it better now. There's a lot of directions they could go in to continue to add impactful players. It's poorly constructed as a team right now going into year 3, but there's still this offseason, and no bad contracts, and a lot of flexibility.

At this pace, they're about 600 defeats away from making the playoffs again. And they don't have their own pick in next year's draft, which is supposed to be very strong. It's not even top-1 protected. That's horrible.

I also disliked the lack of... direction, of a form, in that roster.

Love
Randolph
Beasley
Williams

Aren't these guys 4 natural PFs? And they have too many young players that need playing time to develop.


Let's see...

Core going forward:
Rubio
Williams
Randolph
Wes Johnson

Cost effective role-players:
Ridnour
Tolliver

What could they get for Love+Beasley+rest of the pieces?

I'd consider trading Love. The problem with this strategy is that they don't have their own pick and Love's rebounding and highly efficient scoring delivers them lots of wins.

Love to Indiana
Granger to Clippers
Wolves get back their pick

Can something around these lines work?

[European NBA fan]

If they play Williams as a small forward, they only need to trade Beasley+?? for a center.

I agree with Roy, that the trades make very good sense for the T'Wolves. If Flynn plays the level he showed in Minnesota, he will be out of the league within two years. It seemed like he has a very low basketball IQ for a point guard. Maybe it was just the triangle, but it was painful to watch.

[nickagneta]

So if I have this right Kahn turned

Minnesota's #2 pick,
Minnesota's #20 pick
Johnny Flynn owed $3.4 million/$4.3 million/QO

into

Derrick Williams
Malcolm Lee
Brad Miller owed $4.7 million/$848,000($5.1 million if not waived)
New Jersey Nets 2013 2nd round pick
Miami Heat future 2nd round pick
Memphis Grizzlies 2013 1st round pick
Approximately $3 million in cash


So let's look at the cash situation. They got out of having to pay a 1st round pick a guaranteed contract worth about $2.5 million over 2 years, minimum, though if Malcolm Lee makes the team he will be paid out of this savings. They netted $2.2 million in salary savings in the Miller/Flynn swap, though if they don't waive Miller before a certain time next year this could turn into a net loss of $2.1 million, but that isn't happening. And netted about $3 million overall in 3 trades(source SI.com) though they also bought a draft pick to pick a guy(Tanguy Ngombo) that was ineligible to draft.

So they probably saved and brought in at least as much as they owe Kurt Rambis, their coach that they are about to fire who is still owed $4 million. A coach Kahn hired knowing he used the triangle offense, yet, also knowing he didn't have the proper personnel to run a triangle offense. A coach hired by Kahn two years ago that went 32-132.

Now, some are saying it is smart to make the trades they did picking up future picks for this year's #20 pick and also selecting what is believed to be a quality player in derrick Williams. Some are also saying that if Danny Ainge did this people would be praising him. Well, if Danny Ainge did it this year when he has an older, championship contending team that is on it's last year before rebuilding he should be praised.

But when Danny Ainge had a situation much like Kahn's team, Minnesota, has this year, an extremely young team with questionable talent and few roster spots, Danny Ainge didn't select more young players and stockpile future picks. He cashed them in along with his questionable young talent and landed Ray Allen, Glen Davis, and Kevin Garnett.

And given the similarities between the 2006 and 2007 Celtics and the 2010 and 2011 Timberwolves(#2 pick/#5 pick high draft picks, Love/Jefferson young big man, Rubio/Rondo young PG asset, slew of other mediocre talent, horrible records) I believe Kahn failed his team because he could have followed what looked to be a winning formula and made bigger trades. I think all he has done is cause his team to once again have one of the 5 worst records in the league for fifth year in a row.

This franchise needed major shaking up action and all they got was the delaying process for another year. Pitiful.

If you want to look at Kahn's draft in tunnel vision and say he had a good draft if he had a normal NBA franchise situation. Fine, I will admit to that. But his franchise is not a normal franchise. They have won 22, 24, 15 and 17 games in the last four seasons. They have 13 guaranteed contracts(including Williams) on their team 11 of which are players age 26 or younger and none of which you could say was a number 1 or 2 type guy on a championship caliber team(Love is a number 3 guy on a championship caliber team).

So looking at the whole picture, looking at the big picture of what Kahn should be doing for the Wolves and what he did do for the Wolves on draft night, I think he failed miserably. From all accounts players like Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Tony Parker, Joe Johnson, and perhaps other could have been had. Love, Rubio, Williams, Beasley and picks could have been turned into something Minnesota fans could have been excited over. Instead they get another year of 20 wins, another year of trying to win the lottery, another year of seeing if a Durant or Lebron is somewhere to be found in next draft and another year of waiting.

David Kahn is an awful GM and should be fired. He's starting to make Isiah Thomas look like a quality GM, that's how bad he is.

[Who]

I thought Minnesota did the right thing by staying bad for another year instead of trading for veterans.

They are not ready for a major push up the standings. Their core just isn't good enough to create sustainable progress to push for a title someday.

Maybe in another year or two.