They're a long, long way apart. They haven't even started any kind of negotiations. The NFL is already preparing for a shorter season and the NBA will be following in the same footsteps soon
I think they are ready to take it one step further. Some of the owners are the same owners that canceled the NHL season. It worked well for them and the league. I can see them doing the same thing with the NBA.
At the same time, I think both sides have a lot of motivation to not have any games cancelled. I feel confident that the sides will come to an agreement within the next two months.
I don't. Teams are losing money. They are not going to agree until they get a deal where they make money.
And I think the players will eventually concede the point. I'm not saying it'll be easy and everyone will be super best friends the duration of it, but I think at the the end of the day everyone knows things have to change.
Yeah, I am not worried about the players. They will give in eventually, when the owners put a reasonable offer out there. My worry is that the owners are too far apart from each other to be able to agree on a reasonable offer.
So far the offer I have seen tells me that the owners are not willing to profit share. Unless they agree to that, I just don't see an agreement happening.
But I think the owners know they have have a lot to lose if they aren't able to continue to build on the momentum of the league right now.
Well, the teams that are losing a ton of money don't have a lot to lose. They have much more to lose if they don't make changes to the system.
But your right, the pressure is on the owners like Cuban, and Wyc, and other big market guys. They are the ones who are going to have to fit the bill for this to turn around, but they also are the ones who are going to have the most to lose by a long lockout. So, as soon as Wyc and company can come to grips with writing a check to the Donald Sterlings of the league, then the lockout will be over...
Under the current system the Mavericks don't make a ton of money though. Every year they send a huge luxury tax check that destroys a lot of their potential profits. Same with the Cs.
That's absolutely true, and it is why this could last a long time. Those guys already know that they could be making much more money if there is no luxury tax, and they are going to be the ones pointing the fingers at the owners of smaller teams going back and forth between spending beyond their means and then pinching pennies, so they can collect the luxury tax money from the teams that can afford to pay the tax without actually losing money (even if they aren't making it hand over fist like they could, if they weren't subsidizing the others).
This is why I think the compromise is going to be a hard cap, which keeps things very profitable for the rich teams, but also with profit sharing, so the cap can be high enough to keep the players happy, but still allows the small market teams to at least break even.
But, a system like that is going to need to have strict rules forcing the teams getting the subsidies to put that money directly towards the players, and it is going to require a ton of trust between the owners, to know that no one is cooking the books in order to be making even more money off the big market teams while not putting that money into their own team.
...in other words, those meetings are going to be VERY ugly, and when you are asking rich guys to trust each other, and subsidize each other, you are asking for trouble.