Pure Salary dumps for good players don't happen as often as fans hope.
You're absolutely right. But when the question is whether you would rather have a guy who has been injured nearly his entire career and is coming off microfracture surgery, locked up to a large, longterm deal (because that is what it would take to steal him from Portland), versus having cap space, I take the cap space.
I just think the chances of Oden ever being a quality player, let alone a star are so slim right now.
Taking a risk is one thing, but given the C's situation, that is a completely unnecessary risk.
How big of a contract do you think we would need to sign him for? I think that if we worked out a sign and trade we could get him for 2 or 3 years at just north of his qualifying offer (around $9 MM). This hardly kills our cap for the future. Due to his injury history I bet he signs for short years because he feels he can improve upon his play and make himself a lot more money.
It sounds like you are thinking 12+ for 4 years +. If this is the case I agree that he is not worth the risk.
Well, supposedly Portland is going to offer him the nearly $9 qualifying offer. If they are in fact willing to do that (and it makes sense for them, since even if he signs it, they get another year to see if he gets healthy), then I think it would take years at the full MLE at minimum to sign him without Portland matching, and likely more than that.
For me, $9 million a year for multiple years is completely out of the question (and who do we sign and trade for him)?
Given the C's situation, I absolutely think have $6 million, let alone $9-10 million of dead money (which it would be if he is not healthy) on the cap in 2012 could set them back years in the rebuilding process.
