Free Agency might suck.

[Evantime34]

I think we are better served to sign a back up 2 than Miami, since Wade plays a ton of minutes and they already have Miller backing him up. I'd say we also have the edge at the back up 3 but we already have Jeff Green.

We can offer most free agents something Miami can't and that's extended minutes.

[Chris]

Players like Jeff Foster, maybe Anthony Parker (depending on if Jeff Green is back), etc.

I completely forgot about Parker.  I think, even if Green is back, he would be a prime candidate for the LLE (if there is one).  With the goal being to lower the minutes of the big 3, I think they are going to need a quality SG off the bench as well as a Green at the SF spot, and Parker gives them a guy who brings exactly what they would be looking for there, at a relatively low price point.  

As far as Miami goes, I think they are a lock to sign Dalembert with their MLE (who I have no interest in anyways).  And I think the C's will be at the top of the list of just about every other MLE player out there. 

[wdleehi]

It will suck for players to.



I see alot of one (maybe two) year contracts being offered as teams want to avoid long term bad contracts in the possible new system.

[ManUp]

First, I don't think any of those guys get us close to a Championship. Our problem was an inability to score late in the fourth. None of those guys solve that problem. Second, the issue is Miami needs another wing and center as well. They're going to add depth this off season championship or not. Miami can offer players a chance to play larger role, and are more likely to be back in the finals next year. Do you think free-agents will pick us over Miami for the same money?

First, let's be clear about what Boston's problems were against Miami.

1.  Rondo got hurt.
2.  Boston didn't have home court, largely due to that stretch late in the season when Rondo played like absolute crap.
3.  Big Baby stunk up the court after being a legitimate 6th man of the year candidate during the regular season.
4.  KG played one great game and not much else.  Ray had one good game and not much else.
5.  Jeff Green underperformed.
6.  The team's longstanding offensive chemistry issues and Doc's bad coaching habits converged.
7.  The team's persistent problem with turnovers finally bit them in the behind where they threw away any chance to win two games at the end with two of the dumbest, middle school basketball turnovers you'll ever see.

1-3 can fix themselves and 6 and 7 are mental/emotional things that don't depend on adding anything to the team, especially if Rondo can learn to shoot.  4 and 5 are the two areas where draft/trade/free agent moves might be needed.  As far as competing with Miami in those areas, Boston is clearly better positioned as far as trades and even draft picks with that Clippers first rounder.  Free agency will be largely determined by what the new rules are and what players are looking for.  A young player might actually see Boston as a better place where he could come and play a bigger role, setting himself up for a bigger contract as opposed to Miami, where he'll be a 7th or 8th wheel at best on a team that will have no money to spend for antoher 4 or 5 years.

Mike

1. We were down a convincing 2-0 before game 3. Rondo's injury is an excuse I see leaned on a lot, but it wasn't looking good before he got injured. KG had to play like Hakeem for us to win game 3.

2. Homecourt doesn't mean anything really. The better team almost always wins in a 7 game series. It just so happens that the better team usually has homecourt because they were a better team in the regular season. Look at the finals no number 1 overall seed.

3. Jeff Green is fools gold. You say Jeff Green underperformed, but when have you ever seen him perform better in a Celtics jersey? If anything Miami was his best series. If your really count on him to be the difference I feel for you.

4. Your reason 4, 6, and 7 are all excuses for our bad offense at the end of game. KG and Ray didn't play well because the Heat didn't make it easy and they just don't have that extra gear anymore. Doc's bad coaching can't be blamed for guys being scared to attack the basket and missing open jumpers. The turnovers are from mental lapses when you have mental lapses in the 4th quarter of a tight game that's usually called choking. Choking isn't an excuse, neither is Doc coaching poorly, or KG & Ray playing poorly.

[gar]

Maybe; but then again players who are smart know that playing with a KG or PP or RA can get you a lot of open looks and easy baskets. There is a reason why everyone had career high averages last year and it had to do with the number or threats on the floor at any one time.

[ManUp]

Here's the thing, We need a point guard, a backup wing, and a center. Miami "needs" all the same things. All we have is the MLE, Vet Min, and Bi-annual exception thingamajig, and guess what so do the Heat. We will most likely end up competing for free-agents with the Heat.

AfterAssuming they win the 2011 title free-agents will be lining up to join the Heat. There would be little to no incentive for free-agents to pick Boston over Miami if the money is similar. The Heat will have the city, title, and players to entice free agents, not to mention larger roles on the team. So after Miami gets its pick of the top affordable ring chasers on the market we duke it out with the rest of the contenders (Chicago, Dallas, LAL) for the scraps. When the dust settles it could be a deeper MIA vs a year older Boston team with basically the same depth as this year.

My minds been think glass half empty since we were booted from the play-offs. Am I wrong for thinking this is how free agency is going to go down. Miami's paper thin depth wise they're only going to get better this free-agency.

  How would a backup wing have a bigger role on the Heat than the Celts? Do PP and RA play more minutes than Wade/James? And a pg on the Heat has the "role" of standing outside the three point line watching someone else control the ball. Not saying the Heat won't get ring chasers, but a backup wing might see Ray on the last year of his contract before deciding. We might get younger players because of this.

Your probably right, but I think they'll be looking for someone more dependable then (injury prone) Miller and (one dimensional)Jones.

[Chris]

It will suck for players to.



I see alot of one (maybe two) year contracts being offered as teams want to avoid long term bad contracts in the possible new system.

Well, at that point they will know the new system, so I don't think it will be a case of them being extra careful.  However, I do think there is a good chance that the new system really squeezes free agents, and guys who might have gotten big deals in past years might be looking at closer to vet minimum deals. 

[gar]

Funny thing with this draft is there are a number of seniors who may not be stellar; but could come in off the bench and help a team.

Jon Leuer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith,

[MBunge]

First, I don't think any of those guys get us close to a Championship. Our problem was an inability to score late in the fourth. None of those guys solve that problem. Second, the issue is Miami needs another wing and center as well. They're going to add depth this off season championship or not. Miami can offer players a chance to play larger role, and are more likely to be back in the finals next year. Do you think free-agents will pick us over Miami for the same money?

First, let's be clear about what Boston's problems were against Miami.

1.  Rondo got hurt.
2.  Boston didn't have home court, largely due to that stretch late in the season when Rondo played like absolute crap.
3.  Big Baby stunk up the court after being a legitimate 6th man of the year candidate during the regular season.
4.  KG played one great game and not much else.  Ray had one good game and not much else.
5.  Jeff Green underperformed.
6.  The team's longstanding offensive chemistry issues and Doc's bad coaching habits converged.
7.  The team's persistent problem with turnovers finally bit them in the behind where they threw away any chance to win two games at the end with two of the dumbest, middle school basketball turnovers you'll ever see.

1-3 can fix themselves and 6 and 7 are mental/emotional things that don't depend on adding anything to the team, especially if Rondo can learn to shoot.  4 and 5 are the two areas where draft/trade/free agent moves might be needed.  As far as competing with Miami in those areas, Boston is clearly better positioned as far as trades and even draft picks with that Clippers first rounder.  Free agency will be largely determined by what the new rules are and what players are looking for.  A young player might actually see Boston as a better place where he could come and play a bigger role, setting himself up for a bigger contract as opposed to Miami, where he'll be a 7th or 8th wheel at best on a team that will have no money to spend for antoher 4 or 5 years.

Mike

1. We were down a convincing 2-0 before game 3. Rondo's injury is an excuse I see leaned on a lot, but it wasn't looking good before he got injured. KG had to play like Hakeem for us to win game 3.

2. Homecourt doesn't mean anything really. The better team almost always wins in a 7 game series. It just so happens that the better team usually has homecourt because they were a better team in the regular season. Look at the finals no number 1 overall seed.

3. Jeff Green is fools gold. You say Jeff Green underperformed, but when have you ever seen him perform better in a Celtics jersey? If anything Miami was his best series. If your really count on him to be the difference I feel for you.

4. Your reason 4, 6, and 7 are all excuses for our bad offense at the end of game. KG and Ray didn't play well because the Heat didn't make it easy and they just don't have that extra gear anymore. Doc's bad coaching can't be blamed for guys being scared to attack the basket and missing open jumpers. The turnovers are from mental lapses when you have mental lapses in the 4th quarter of a tight game that's usually called choking. Choking isn't an excuse, neither is Doc coaching poorly, or KG & Ray playing poorly.

1.  I don't know if Boston would have beat Miami with a healthy Rondo anymore than anyone knows if we would have won if we'd kept Perkins.  When he got hurt, though, any chance we had went out the window.

2.  As for home court, you write as though it's always perfectly cut and dried that one team is better than the other.  It isn't.  When two teams are closely matched, there are a whole host of things that can decide who wins.  I wouldn't say home court is the most important one, but that it's no factor at all is just the latest trendy view to hold.

3.  Yes, Jeff Green didn't play that well in his 26 game stint in Boston after a mid-season trade.  That clearly means he can't possibly play any better.

4.  They're not excuses.  This team's offensive execution started really stagnating last year, they've always comitted way too many turnovers, Doc's impulses toward small ball and adjusting to the other team instead of making them adjust were exactly the wrong impulses against a team like Miami and saying that if KG, Ray and Green can't do any better than they did, trade or free agent moves may be needed is pretty much the opposite of an excuse.

My point is that when looking at draft/free agent/trade moves, you need to understand what problems the team has that can be solved through those routes and how you could solve them.  For example, if the problem is that KG and Ray can no longer score big against elite level defense, getting a player like Carl Landry won't do jack to address the problem, no matter how good of a pick up Landry might appear to be.

Mike

[RyNye]

1. We were down a convincing 2-0 before game 3. Rondo's injury is an excuse I see leaned on a lot, but it wasn't looking good before he got injured. KG had to play like Hakeem for us to win game 3.

All of the games in the series were close, and came down to late 4th quarter execution. I am not saying we definitely would have won with a healthy Rondo, but saying we were "down a convincing 2-0" is disingenuous, considering how contested the games in Boston were.

2. Homecourt doesn't mean anything really. The better team almost always wins in a 7 game series. It just so happens that the better team usually has homecourt because they were a better team in the regular season. Look at the finals no number 1 overall seed.

Like it or not, statistically speaking, home-court advantage does exist. Look at teams like the Pistons this year. 9 for 32 on the road, yet above 500 at home. Or the Clippers, also 9 for 32 on the road, but 23 for 18 at home. Even bad teams play better at home. Now, when you get to the play-offs, things are a bit more complicated, and you aren't entirely wrong to say that the better team usually has homecourt because they were a better team in the regular season. However, when it comes to two teams that are evenly matched, homecourt can be a factor. 

3. Jeff Green is fools gold. You say Jeff Green underperformed, but when have you ever seen him perform better in a Celtics jersey? If anything Miami was his best series. If your really count on him to be the difference I feel for you.

Blah, blah, blah, more random Jeff Green hate. We have a young guy with barely any miles on him, traded late in a season in an incredibly controversial trade for a player loved by Boston without a clear role laid out for him by Doc Rivers. Yes, he could have and probably should have played better. But calling him "fool's gold" and blatantly dismissing any possibility that he might improve is incredibly rash.

4. Your reason 4, 6, and 7 are all excuses for our bad offense at the end of game. KG and Ray didn't play well because the Heat didn't make it easy and they just don't have that extra gear anymore. Doc's bad coaching can't be blamed for guys being scared to attack the basket and missing open jumpers. The turnovers are from mental lapses when you have mental lapses in the 4th quarter of a tight game that's usually called choking. Choking isn't an excuse, neither is Doc coaching poorly, or KG & Ray playing poorly.

I only half agree with you, here. There was a huge mental factor in this, both on the coaching end and out on the floor. Ray Allen missing wide open 3s in a playoff game is inexcusable. But dismissing those points as excuses is just being unnecessarily pessimistic. There are a whole lot of factors that contributed to our loss this year, some of them that were outside of our control, and some of them that were within it.

[birdwatcher]

I feel the Miami argument is weak. A lot of these guys play basketball not just to win a championship, but to play. I don't see a solid FA lining up to play 6 minutes a game behind D-Wade or Lebron. Centers may be more of a problem to steal away, but with the way Haslem and Anthony have played, I think they will really only target 1 center with legit size to replace Z. But who knows--the rich always get richer.

[snively]

The best thing going for us in this free agency period is the prospect of addition by subtraction with Big Baby.  With Perk, JO and Shaq out for so much of last year, Baby was more 5th than 6th man.

If JO or Jeff Green can combine to fill those minutes, we're already a better team.

As for addition by addition, there are certainly a lot of intriguing possibilities, though the Ainge's desire for 2012 cap space could tie our hand a bit. 

A key domino to look out for is Jeff Green's fate.  If we sign him to a multi-year deal, we'll have little to no flexibility to sign another multi-year guy without spoiling our 2012 cap space (if the cap ends up around $55 mil, Pierce, Rondo and our draft picks will occupy about $30 mil of that; add on Jeff Green at around $7 mil and you can't really go further without losing a max slot).  I think resigning him would also minimize the need for a back-up 4, as Green would likely see regular minutes there.

If we let Green walk, or sign him to his QO (or sign & trade him for someone on a one year deal), then I see Ainge being much more willing to offer a multi-year MLE.

In the first scenario (Green resigned for multiple years), I see Ainge splitting the MLE up and offering 1 year deals to journeymen bigs like Kwame Brown, Chuck Hayes or Chris Wilcox, trying to retain Delonte for the LLE, and then scouring for vet min guys to flesh out the wings spots behind Jeff Green. 

If it's the second scenario (Green gone or on a 1 year - the most likely scenario, IMHO), then there are a lot of interesting guys Ainge could throw multiple-year offers at.  There are intriguing restricted free agents like Wilson Chandler, Arron Aflalo and Jonas Jerebko.  A lot of skilled wings: VC, Tayshaun Prince, JR Smith, Mike Dunleavy.  Then of course the bigs: K-Mart, Landry, Humphries, Dalembert (probably out of our price range, but what the hey)...  Any one of these guys could be the missing piece for a final title run.