Reason I think the Mavs will beat the Heat

[OsirusCeltics]

This NBA finals is basically a rematch of the 2006 Finals where Miami came out on top. But I think this time around, Mavs will win this title. Theres many reasons I think the Mavs would win, but the main reason is what Miami lacks: SIZE

In 2006 Miami had a very very potent frontline. A younger Shaq, Alonzo Mourning off the bench, Antione Walker, James Posey, and a younger Udonis Haslem

This was against a weak frontline for Dallas IMO. It was Diop, Erika Dampier, and Nowitzki who basically played on the perimeter

The Miami offense are basically identical in 2006 vs 2011. They both had scoring droughts, caused alot of turnovers, alot of missed shots, and never really had a true pure point guard to run the offense

Its basically two reasons why Miami dominated the Mavs in 2006

1. Even though they had all of those deficiencies, they rebounded the heck out of ball, getting alot of those off and deff rebounds to cover up their mistakes. Limited Mavs to one shot per possession. Also, Miami were very physical. They were able to pound the ball inside and protect the paint from anyone driving the lane.

2. Miami's size allowed Dwyane Wade to dominate like he did. I give all the credit to Wade (best player in the NBA IMO). He had one of the best Finals performances ever, averaging 34.7 ppg. But it was attention Miami's bigs commanded that gave Wade the space to operate. There was no way Mavs would leave Shaq, Walker, or Mourning open. Leading to Wade hardly ever getting doubled

The Heat now are a totally different team. They are perimeter oriented and rely on their athleticism and one-on-one skills. But I think the tables have turned and now Mavs have that size advantage. Tyson Chandler, Haywood, and Nowitzki may be too much for the Heat. Unlike the Celtics or Bulls who had problems scoring, Mavs on the other hand are probably the most efficient offensive team in the NBA

Mavs play more like a team, and Dirk is just too focused

[Finkelskyhook]

When I saw this thread I immediately looked for a headline that Stern resigned or Mark Cuban sold the Mavericks

As long as the Stern regieme rules over the NBA there is absolutely no chance that a Cuban-owned team will win an NBA championship. 

Compound that with the way everybody has become accustomed (numbed) to the way the messiah is officiated already and the officials don't have to embarass themselves too much more to get Stern's desired result.

[ManUp]

I agree.

If I was a Miami fan I'd be terrified of the refs and what they are capable of. You know what the Heat will bring, but the refs can be a back breaker. I saw the 2006 play-off and as much as Dirk gets killed for losing after going up 2-0 the Mavs were totally robbed. I was actually rooting for the Heat at that time and I knew it.

[Surferdad]

Size matters in the NBA, but it's only one factor.  Miami will once again (as wit the CHI and BOs series) have the two best players and they are younger and more athletic than Dallas. Also, Caron Butler is out.  Then there's Stern-bots as already mentioned.

I can't see this series going beyond 5 games.  Gulp hard and admit that this is Miami's year.

[wiley]

I think Dallas may have the goods.

[OsirusCeltics]

Size matters in the NBA, but it's only one factor.  Miami will once again (as wit the CHI and BOs series) have the two best players and they are younger and more athletic than Dallas. Also, Caron Butler is out.  Then there's Stern-bots as already mentioned.

I can't see this series going beyond 5 games.  Gulp hard and admit that this is Miami's year.

If you can't execute in the half-court system and have no low post presence, you would never win. I think Heat's lack of execution was never exploited, cause of the opposing team's lack of offense. Well like I said Dallas is the most potent and efficient offensive team in the NBA

[Surferdad]

Size matters in the NBA, but it's only one factor.  Miami will once again (as wit the CHI and BOs series) have the two best players and they are younger and more athletic than Dallas. Also, Caron Butler is out.  Then there's Stern-bots as already mentioned.

I can't see this series going beyond 5 games.  Gulp hard and admit that this is Miami's year.

If you can't execute in the half-court system and have no low post presence, you would never win. I think Heat's lack of execution was never exploited, cause of the opposing team's lack of offense. Well like I said Dallas is the most potent and efficient offensive team in the NBA

I agree in principle, but it seems that MIA doesn't need a half-court game when they have two players that can create their own shot at will.  Throw in their excellent defensive execution this year which will neutralize Dallas' offense to some extent.

[mgent]

I know the Mavs will beat the Heat, just like the I knew the Celts were gonna beat the Heat.  The only way Miami wins is if the refs give them +80 BS FTs.

[PosImpos]

I think it will come down to whether Miami's stars can stay hot from outside.  They've gotten to the Finals largely as a result of some unsustainably hot outside shooting -- particularly from LeBron.  If LeBron isn't hitting those off the dribble, end of the clock 3 point jumpshots, Miami is going to have a much harder time closing out a team like the Mavs that can actually generate points inside and out when they have to.

I think a lot of people who are picking against the Mavs are forgetting what they were saying over and over about the Lakers for the past few years up until they got swept by Dallas -- size wins in the NBA.  Dallas has it, Miami doesn't.  

And if size isn't enough, having the best player in the series is what makes the difference; I think Dirk is the best player in this series given the way he's playing right now.

That said, Miami has homecourt advantage and the best 2 player tandem in the league (just as the Lakers did the last 2 seasons when they won), so they have a lot going for them.  I could really see either team winning.

[OsirusCeltics]

Size matters in the NBA, but it's only one factor.  Miami will once again (as wit the CHI and BOs series) have the two best players and they are younger and more athletic than Dallas. Also, Caron Butler is out.  Then there's Stern-bots as already mentioned.

I can't see this series going beyond 5 games.  Gulp hard and admit that this is Miami's year.

If you can't execute in the half-court system and have no low post presence, you would never win. I think Heat's lack of execution was never exploited, cause of the opposing team's lack of offense. Well like I said Dallas is the most potent and efficient offensive team in the NBA

I agree in principle, but it seems that MIA doesn't need a half-court game when they have two players that can create their own shot at will.  Throw in their excellent defensive execution this year which will neutralize Dallas' offense to some extent.

Yup, very true. Miami can basically drive the ball at will and Dallas would have no answer, especially with Refs helping Miami out. Idk, I see that OKC and the Heat basically play the same way. With alot of isos and bigs who can't score in the low post. And Mavs had success with them. Plus they beat Miami twice in the season and stopped their 20 game win streak. To me, I think Dallas has an edge in this series

[housecall]

On paper it should work out to the Mavs advantage but on paper D.Rose shouldve dominated the pg position in the last series but it didn't happen.I think game#1 will be more filling each other out.The benches might play a key role in who wins in the end.So far we have witnessed the Mav's bench to be very good,especially in closeout situations.Im picking the Mavs in 6.
 

[Adelaide Celt]

I hope Dallas don't gamble and play Caron Butler (highly unlikely doctors would clear him anyway I think). Doubtful his knee injury would allow him to play adequate defense on James or Wade.

Mavericks have just gotta split the first 2 and take it from there. Nowitzki, Terry and Kidd - this is it fellas

[JoT]

On paper it should work out to the Mavs advantage but on paper D.Rose shouldve dominated the pg position in the last series but it didn't happen.I think game#1 will be more filling each other out.The benches might play a key role in who wins in the end.So far we have witnessed the Mav's bench to be very good,especially in closeout situations.Im picking the Mavs in 6.
 Also i think the Matrix can/will make LBJ work harder than any of his previous playoffs opponents.The Mavs will probably have a game plan for slowing Wade up as well,seeing that he burned them in 2006.If losing to Wade's 2006 Heat team  haunted J.Terry & Dirk's like they claim it has Wade,James&Bosh will not have an easy time of it.

Speaking of Matrix you know in this season defending LeBron he held him to around 36% shooting? I was watching ESPN when they were talking about Dallas and they that about Matrix.
I want them to win because I fell they've defeated the odds and will do  it again. I just feel so proud of them because they did what was not expected of them while Miami did.
People seem to forget Miami WAS supposed to go to the Finals, Dallas was just supposed to be a filler spot and get knocked out by the Blazers or Lakers.
Hope the best for the team and hope they get their revenge. Sad Caron couldn't play, but I think him being on the bench supporting his team would be better than him playing right now.
Would be surprising if he just popped back in and was healthy ready to go. That would be a shocker and would just rock the NBA.

[zerophase]

I agree with all of those points but the reason why in '06 the Heat won the championship comes down to two words, Dwayne Wade. The Heat iso'd him and he shot mid range jumpers all day, which no body could stop and when he wasn't doing that, he was shooting like 100 free throws a game. My prediction is that the Heat will win this series because of free throw shooting.

[Q_FBE]

As much as I want to see Dirk and Dallas win the NBA finals this year, I have serious doubts whether or not they can stop Lebron and DeWayne Wade. I also think they will try to take out Dirk Nowitzki and make the Jason's beat them. Dallas should be able to defend Miami's perimeter game. It will be an interesting tactical series early on but the physical ability of Miami will wear down Dallas and unfortunately deny Dallas of a title. I would love nothing better than to be wrong here and have Rick Carlisle engineer a defense to stop Dweeb and LeCheat.

The Celtics did a nice job but Lebron drained the critical 3's in games 4 ane 5 to deny the C's