Author Topic: Why Boston lost this year  (Read 8671 times)

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Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #15 on: May 18, 2011, 02:51:51 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Simple reason. A non-healthy Shaq. If he was able to play all season we'd be at least headed to the finals. Perk and JO were good enough to make us competitive this year, but Shaq was the difference maker.

Roy already showed the numbers.  Perk in the lineup was producing the same offensive results the team was producing last year. 



The trade killed the offense.  It was no longer like clockwork.  It had to be trimmed. 


Two things. We lost last year. There was no Miami Heat level team to go through. Our offense isn't worse because of no Perk, it is worse because Rondo didnt play at the level he did last season. Hmmm. We can blame the reduction in offense with a guy who isn't offensive and barely touched the ball, or on our PG who used to get to the rim but this playoffs was unable to do it. Taht didn't have an affect on our offensive woes much more likely than no Perk?!

After Perk went down and the Celtics lost size.  How many times have we heard that the Celtic players believe they would have won if Perk was there?

  Didn't that pretty much assume that Rondo would be playing at more than 50% or so?

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #16 on: May 18, 2011, 03:01:55 PM »

Offline dlpin

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Roy already showed the numbers.  Perk in the lineup was producing the same offensive results the team was producing last year. 



The trade killed the offense.  It was no longer like clockwork.  It had to be trimmed. 

The trade did nothing to the offense. I don't know what numbers Roy used, but this year with Perkins on the floor the celtics scored 106.9 points on 100 possessions with an eFG% of 50.7%. Without Perkins on the floor the celtics scored 107.7 per 100 on eFG% 52. This for all line ups.


The big 4 plus Shaq this year were scoring 117 points per 100 possessions on 58% eFG%. The big 4 plus Perkins this year were scoring 114 points per 100 possessions on 50.4 eFG%.

There is no evidence that the trade is the reason for the celtics' offensive woes, and plenty that it was just age.

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2011, 03:56:34 PM »

Offline LB3533

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The problem with our offense this year were 3 factors.


1. Rondo's health: After the first 3 months, he was not healthy all year

2. Weak low post: Outside of KG and maybe BBD, we have no one down there.

3. Poor bench: BBD was fine earlier in the year, Nate stunk earlier on, we tried to integrate new players for our bench, with one to two months left in the season for crying out loud.


If 2 of the 3 are positively established from the beginning of the season, our offense would have been fine heading into the playoffs.

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2011, 04:16:05 PM »

Offline BballTim

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  It's still true that the biggest problem for our offense is that we don't aggressively go after offensive rebounds. Whether we should or not is open to discussion, but if our offensive rebounding rate was the same as we had in 07-08 our offense would be better this year than it was then.

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2011, 04:27:20 PM »

Offline Brendan

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  It's still true that the biggest problem for our offense is that we don't aggressively go after offensive rebounds. Whether we should or not is open to discussion, but if our offensive rebounding rate was the same as we had in 07-08 our offense would be better this year than it was then.

We don't get easy buckets - as high efficiency as are jump shooters are, they are jump shooters. We're not good at consistently running and executing, our slashers were not what they used to be, we don't have a post presence, and apparently we can only play D if we don't go after offensive rebounds. I look at the numbers with Shaq, and I wonder if Al Jefferson is the cure for what ails the offense.

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2011, 04:28:56 PM »

Offline MBunge

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If 2 of the 3 are positively established from the beginning of the season, our offense would have been fine heading into the playoffs.


I'm not so sure.  You could see this team's offensive problems really start to crop up last year and they just this season.

Mike

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #21 on: May 18, 2011, 04:39:05 PM »

Offline MBunge

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  It's still true that the biggest problem for our offense is that we don't aggressively go after offensive rebounds. Whether we should or not is open to discussion, but if our offensive rebounding rate was the same as we had in 07-08 our offense would be better this year than it was then.


Don't forget about turnovers, which have plagued this group since they got together.  I have never seen another group of veterans who have made as many astonishly stupid turnovers, especially after they've been together for a few years.  I mean, the perfect bookends for KG's time in Boston are winning the title in 2008 and game 5 in Miami where I think he got an offensive rebound and tried to throw a behind the back pass to someone in the corner behind the 3 point line and totally botched it.

Mike

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #22 on: May 18, 2011, 04:59:14 PM »

Offline BballTim

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  It's still true that the biggest problem for our offense is that we don't aggressively go after offensive rebounds. Whether we should or not is open to discussion, but if our offensive rebounding rate was the same as we had in 07-08 our offense would be better this year than it was then.


Don't forget about turnovers, which have plagued this group since they got together.  I have never seen another group of veterans who have made as many astonishly stupid turnovers, especially after they've been together for a few years.  I mean, the perfect bookends for KG's time in Boston are winning the title in 2008 and game 5 in Miami where I think he got an offensive rebound and tried to throw a behind the back pass to someone in the corner behind the 3 point line and totally botched it.

Mike

  Turnovers have been steady, offensive rebounds have declined quite a bit. That's what I meant.

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #23 on: May 18, 2011, 05:00:12 PM »

Offline BballTim

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  It's still true that the biggest problem for our offense is that we don't aggressively go after offensive rebounds. Whether we should or not is open to discussion, but if our offensive rebounding rate was the same as we had in 07-08 our offense would be better this year than it was then.

We don't get easy buckets - as high efficiency as are jump shooters are, they are jump shooters. We're not good at consistently running and executing, our slashers were not what they used to be, we don't have a post presence, and apparently we can only play D if we don't go after offensive rebounds. I look at the numbers with Shaq, and I wonder if Al Jefferson is the cure for what ails the offense.

  What's your definition of an easy bucket?

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #24 on: May 18, 2011, 05:17:05 PM »

Offline Brendan

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  It's still true that the biggest problem for our offense is that we don't aggressively go after offensive rebounds. Whether we should or not is open to discussion, but if our offensive rebounding rate was the same as we had in 07-08 our offense would be better this year than it was then.

We don't get easy buckets - as high efficiency as are jump shooters are, they are jump shooters. We're not good at consistently running and executing, our slashers were not what they used to be, we don't have a post presence, and apparently we can only play D if we don't go after offensive rebounds. I look at the numbers with Shaq, and I wonder if Al Jefferson is the cure for what ails the offense.

  What's your definition of an easy bucket?

I don't really have one - but I probably mean post buckets, at the hoop, on layups, fast breaks, post, and putbacks.

The offense actually generates its share of layups off drives, so I should take that back. Rhetoric is flowing from the CE threads :)

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #25 on: May 18, 2011, 05:33:51 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Rhetoric is flowing from the CE threads :)

  Haha. I sometimes have that issue.

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #26 on: May 18, 2011, 07:11:37 PM »

Offline SalmonAndMashedPotatoes

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Simple reason. A non-healthy Shaq. If he was able to play all season we'd be at least headed to the finals. Perk and JO were good enough to make us competitive this year, but Shaq was the difference maker.

Roy already showed the numbers.  Perk in the lineup was producing the same offensive results the team was producing last year. 



The trade killed the offense.  It was no longer like clockwork.  It had to be trimmed. 


Two things. We lost last year. There was no Miami Heat level team to go through. Our offense isn't worse because of no Perk, it is worse because Rondo didnt play at the level he did last season. Hmmm. We can blame the reduction in offense with a guy who isn't offensive and barely touched the ball, or on our PG who used to get to the rim but this playoffs was unable to do it. Taht didn't have an affect on our offensive woes much more likely than no Perk?!

People are prone to separate offense and defense when making their analysis of this or that player, but basketball is one of those sports where offense/defense are inextricably linked, making cause-and-effect rationalizing that much more difficult.

Bad offensive spacing leads to fast break opportunities for the other team, while smart shot selection and good spacing limits transition for the opposing teams.  Poor rebounding leads to 2nd chance points, but good rebounding leads to easy fast break buckets the other way.  Good consistent interior defense leads to more stops, which leads to more fastbreak opportunities, which should lead to more easy buckets.  On the other hand, it's pretty hard to score consistently when you are always taking the ball out of the basket and facing the other team's defense after it's already set up.

Keeping all the above in mind, Perk's departure had a major effect on the offense.  First, we have all the little things that Perk did, things like knowing the playbook inside and out, setting bone-crushing screens, knowing when and where to move to find the perfect angle for the dump down pass for a dunk, and just having great chemistry with his teammates.  As Doc pointed out:

Quote
Well it was more not that the trust went away, the know-how went away, the continuity went away," said Rivers. "That's what the trade affected more than anything. Obviously [Kendrick Perkins] was great to our team and all of that, but it was more that you had new guys playing different positions and you had a floor guy, who could literally reach back into a playbook and throw out something that was three or four years old and they all knew it, when Perk was there. When you lose Perk, you take that one guy out of that starting lineup. Now there's the fifth guy who doesn't know your offense three years ago. He only knows what he knows since he's been there, and that limited our group. With Rondo, because the way teams guard him, you need a massive playbook and that took more away from it than we thought.

But those are the obvious places where Perk was missed.  The less obvious place he was missed was defensively, and how that affected the Cs offense.  While JO was able to replicate some of what Perk brought on defense, things like weakside shotblocking, low post defense, and blitzing the pick-and-roll properly, he was deficient in other things, like defensive rebounding and the knack of making a timely outlet pass, things that led to fast break opportunities and easy buckets.  Part of the problem the Cs had in getting out in transition in the playoffs was the simple fact that the outlet pass wasn't getting to Rondo in a timely manner.
Folly. Persist.

Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #27 on: May 18, 2011, 07:39:50 PM »

Offline dlpin

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If you are trying to say that Perk's defense made it easier to start the offense, that would be one thing. It would still be wrong because there was no actual difference on the defensive end, but at least it would be something.

But Perkins did not help our offense. He was never even top 5 in offensive rating for the celtics.




Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #28 on: May 18, 2011, 08:04:50 PM »

Offline LB3533

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If 2 of the 3 are positively established from the beginning of the season, our offense would have been fine heading into the playoffs.


I'm not so sure.  You could see this team's offensive problems really start to crop up last year and they just this season.

Mike

Last year, I could have just substituted "Rondo's Health" with "Paul Pierce's Health" or "KG's Health".

We were a beat up team last year that probably couldn't perform the way they wanted to, physically.

When the team was able to feel healthy, in he playoffs, they were able to "flip the switch".


Re: Why Boston lost this year
« Reply #29 on: May 19, 2011, 10:34:46 AM »

Offline MBunge

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Keeping all the above in mind, Perk's departure had a major effect on the offense. 


I'm not sure why this needs to be stated over and over again.  Boston was 33 and 10 without Perk stepping on the court this past season.

Mike