Greg Oden may get a 4 year, $40 million offer from the Blazers

[screwedupmaniac]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/213422/Oden_Looks_At_Free_Agency_As_His_Move

Greg Oden will be a restricted free agent during this offseason and the Blazers are almost certain to extend the qualifying offer.

But there are also reports that the Blazers may make a four-year, $40 million offer.

"The way I look at it," he said, "is that it's not their move. It's my move. Everyone says it's their move. I think it's my move."

There is inherent risk in offering long-term money, but it could prove to be a below market contract if Oden remains healthy.

As one Eastern Conference executive put it on Friday, "If you know Oden is a 1-in-20 shot to come back and be a factor, you have to take it. Because not signing him, you have a 0-in-20 shot of being there if he does.

"Still, $40 mil makes you think."

I know, most of you probably don't care at this point, but I found this to be pretty insane, considering the fact that he hasn't played hardly at all. $40 million for a 1 out of 20 potential??

And how much do you wanna bet that the Eastern Conference exec that they discussed the matter with was none other than our very own Danny Ainge? Seems like the type of contract gamble he'd take.

[Who]

I was thinking more along the lines of a three year $30 deal.

I'm not sure a two year ten million per annum deal is enough. If you have suffered serious injuries, potentially career threatening, and have yet to fully recover from those injuries ... do you turn down a guaranteed five year MLE deal ($32/33 million) for a two year $20 million deal? Not sure.

Three year deal definitely offers enough security versus risk though.

[mgent]

I was thinking more along the lines of a three year $30 deal.

I'm not sure a two year ten million per annum deal is enough. If you have suffered serious injuries, potentially career threatening, and have yet to fully recover from those injuries ... do you turn down a guaranteed five year MLE deal ($32/33 million) for a two year $20 million deal? Not sure.

Three year deal definitely offers enough security versus risk though.

I think 2yr/20mil is a blessing for a guy with the career Greg Oden has had.  If he could play the full 2 years at his potential level he's looking at a near max deal from somebody.  Obviously that's a big if but depending on Oden's ego it could be considered the right move.

4 years on the other hand could be a team-killer if you're paying 10mil a year for nobody.

[hpantazo]

after the contract they gave Roy knowing his knee issues, this wouldn't surprise me

[manbehindtheman]

Nothing against Oden but he is going to get vastly overpaid by somebody.  He hasn't proven much and for somebody to shell out 40million just seems outrageous.  We, the fans, have to pay in the end for the teams recklessness.

[KCattheStripe]

Really?

[LooseCannon]

The Blazers are in luxury tax territory, so it's not like letting Oden go frees up room to sign another player.  Your choice is Oden for $10 million/year or a string of minimum salary guys for less.  In theory, a quarter season of Oden might be more useful than some journeyman scrub (but not worth that much money, of course).

If Portland lets Oden go, they are pretty much committing themselves to being the sort of team that makes the playoffs and exits in the first round for the life of Brandon Roy's contract.

And that Eastern Conference executive does not sound like Danny Ainge at all.  One of the great things about Ainge is that he is not risk-averse.  The anonymous executive is afraid of looking bad and is basically saying that you should resign with Oden because it is better for him to be a failure in Portland than a success anywhere else, or at least that's how I interpret his words.  If Ainge thought that way, he would have re-signed James Posey and kept Perkins because he would have been afraid of looking foolish for not standing pat.

[Rondo_is_better]

brb picking my jaw up off the floor.

"He's played six games, let's give him more money."

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

This would be ridiculous. No wonder there's the strong threat of a lockout: $10 million -- TEN ... MILLION!! ... DOLLARS -- for a guy who's averaged 9.4 points and may never be fully healthy?? And who wasn't a lock for NBA success to begin with?? I wouldn't give him more than the MLE, but I'd prefer the vet min.

[action781]

I feel that both teams could come to agree in the middle somewhere around 3 years 30 mil or 4 years 36 mil.  For the type of potential he has, I think he's worth it to a team who is over the cap and can't replace him with anything else otherwise (as previously mentioned).  He would complement Aldridge unbelievably if he ever comes back.  What a frontcourt.  This could be a championship contender.

4 years 40 million though?  Man... not TOO ridiculous, but that's right on the boundary of being just barely too much.  The question is why?  To prevent him from becoming an UFA next year?

[Jon]

Well, it seems crazy.  However, let's remember players have come back from injury trouble before.  Grant Hill proved it. Brandon Roy is starting to prove it. And to a lesser extent guys like Elton Brand and even Jermaine O'Neal.  And even guys like Zach Randolph who didn't have injury problems, but was written off by a lot of the league as a selfish loser.

Granted, Oden's had it worse than almost all of them; however, if he gets healthy, he may actually be worth more. 

[slamtheking]

If this is true, I would be very surprised if the next CBA didn't contain something allowing teams to cut bad contracts or make them non-guaranteed- -- similar to the NFL.  Particularly if a soft cap is still allowed.  (not that I could see a hard cap ever being accepted or of any benefit to any team)

[Who]

If this is true, I would be very surprised if the next CBA didn't contain something allowing teams to cut bad contracts or make them non-guaranteed- -- similar to the NFL.  Particularly if a soft cap is still allowed.  (not that I could see a hard cap ever being accepted or of any benefit to any team)

This is Orlando's best chance of getting rid of Gilbert Arenas.

I think there is a decent likelihood (30-40%) of this happening. A one time amnesty like they had a few years ago when guys like Michael Finley (Dallas) were waived.

[Who]

4 years 40 million though?  Man... not TOO ridiculous, but that's right on the boundary of being just barely too much.  The question is why?  To prevent him from becoming an UFA next year?

Two main reasons:

(1) Like you said, to stop Oden from becoming an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

There is a fear that Oden will need all of next season to play himself back into shape / form ... and that he will only be at full fitness the following year ... that Portland will have spent all of that time and money to get Oden back in top basketball shape (and will have succeeded) ... only to see another team reap the benefits of all of their hard work.  

Side Note: Greg Oden isn't expected to be ready for the start of next season. Expected to miss the whole of training camp and return sometime early in the regular season. Before the new year. This is after Oden has spent the last two years sitting on the sideline and who knows where his game is at that point or how long it'll take him to fully recover once he returns to the court.

(2) To stop another team from offering Oden an even larger offer sheet ... and putting Portland in an even more difficult situation in the process.

What if a team offers him $45 million or a five year $50 million deal?

[Eja117]

And Yao is getting $100 mill


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