Hollinger insider article on Heat/Boston Big Three's matchup

[Celticsfan336]

Balanced article. It comes down to three things:

A. The value of Home Court - if the HC situation was reversed, Hollinger would probably be picking Celts in 5
But the thing Hollinger doesnt realize is, no team can win on the road in the playoffs like the Celtics. They beat Lebron who had homecourt last year, and nearly swept Orlando without homecourt. Let's be real here, Hollinger would still pick the Heat if all 7 were being playing in Boston.
B. How you weight a couple factors: 1. overall play in regular season, 2. head to head play, 3. recent play, and 4. ability to step up in post season. Hollinger puts very little stock in 2 & 3 because historically they haven't been good indicators of success. In short he doesn't put much stock in anecdotal evidence that a team is an outlier from these historical trends.
Miami's overall regular season play was categorized by their inability to close close games, and beat elite teams in the NBA. They still havent changed that. Head to Head play is 75% in our favor. Ability to step up in the post season? I dont think to many teams step up or "flip the switch" more than Boston. Recent play...Sure, Boston struggled in the last quarter of the season, but they clearly showed how they play come playoffs against the Knicks, and Miami won in 5, but no game was all that impressive.
C. Shaq's health. Basically KG, PP, RA, RR + anybody at center is a great lineup. But Shaq + 3 of the above + anybody else is also a great lineup. It just makes the C's that much deeper and harder to contend with.
Shaq will play in this series, according to Doc. Plus, J'O couldnt be playing any better.
All that being said Hollinger expects Heat in 5 as the most likely of any individual outcome, and sounds like he believes that would happen in a majority or at least large plurality of times. That doesn't mean he thinks its the only possible or even probable outcome.

Hollinger is a mathemitician who is horendous at analysing basketball games. From what I remeber, this Celtics team has lost 2 series....both going deep into the 7th game.