Hollinger insider article on Heat/Boston Big Three's matchup

[PosImpos]

His article actually makes a lot of sense.  I can't say I disagree with most of it.  It looks like a close matchup and an objective observer has plenty of reasons to pick the Heat - although the fact that James and Wade struggle against our defense and that the Heat are bad at defending quick point guards certainly work greatly in our favor.

I pretty much agree with the notion that the Celtics are probably going to lose the series, unless Shaq comes back and produces - in which case the Celtics have a very solid chance of winning it in 6.

[jambr380]

Well, he's also assuming Shaq won't play.  And he's basing that conclusion on the same evidence that people are basing it on here: nothing.  In fact, I'd wager we all probably know more about Shaq than Hollinger does, since we're compulsively following the story.  

Also, I don't think people probably should've posted the entire article.  You should probably stick to excerpts in the future.  

He might be basing it on the fact that in the past 3 months, Shaq has played 5 minutes of competitive basketball and practiced for about another 5 minutes. Just sayin'.

I get that the Heat are better than the Knicks, but neither team has a viable center (I consider Amare a PF). Not having Shaq won't kill us. We do, however, need more consistency from our bench, which is vastly superior when both are playing at their best. Frankly, JO is much better than anything that have at C.

[byennie]

I think JO is being waaaay overlooked with all of the drama surrounding the Shaq situation. Dude blocked 10 shots in < 100 minutes against the Knicks. The Heat have been playing Joel Anthony 31 MPG in the playoffs. Having JO able to leave his man is going to help a lot keeping LeBron and Wade away from the rim.

Personally I think Bosh is the most important player in this series. If he becomes a handful, it has a huge domino effect and things open up for LeBron and Wade. If he's under control, the Cs know how to beat the LeBron show.

[vinnie]

How many times did the Celts beat the Heat this year with JO starting at center and Baby and Krstic as the backups? I think the answer is zero. Granted, this is a different JO than we have seen, but in the only game he started against the Heat, the Celtics were croaked.

[PosImpos]

How many times did the Celts beat the Heat this year with JO starting at center and Baby and Krstic as the backups? I think the answer is zero. Granted, this is a different JO than we have seen, but in the only game he started against the Heat, the Celtics were croaked.

This is a decent point.  However, I think the biggest change between the first three games the Celtics played against the Heat and the last was Rondo's play.  The drop off from pre-trade Rondo to post-trade Rondo was much larger than the drop off from Perk or Shaq / Semih to JO / Krstic.

Now that Rondo is in playoff mode, performing even better than he did early in the season, I think the Celtics should be very competitive against the Heat.

[chambers]

If you think this article isn't biased then we are reading something completely different.
He talks about the Heat's late game 'choking' and how it's overrated- he says that Boston is in a similar category with 2-14 FG makes.(this is a commonly known exaggeration when people talk about the Heat too).
He doesn't talk about Bostons track record in closing games in the playoffs which is much more important. Think about how many games we have won with a final shot by Pierce or Allen or a clutch defensive play over the past 3 years...the Heat know this and trust me they are very worried.
*He doesn't mention the Heats plan to stop Rondo..He says that Wade played horribly in the regular season games but didn't talk about Rondo playing horribly in the one game they beat us in.
It's like this series is about each others big 3 and no one else.
He's completely overlooked Rondo because he's a stats guy and Rondo went in to hibernation for the 2nd half of the season whilst having terrible games against the Heat and Bulls.
He also doesn't talk about the psychological advantage the C's have over the Heat in almost every aspect.

We beat them 3-4 times this season. They won 1 game after our trade which gives them some personal satisfaction but overall there are multiple mental battles going on here which everyone seems to ignore.

KG vs Bosh..KG wins
Celtics vs Lebron...C's win
Celtics vs Wade ...C's win
Rondo vs Heat backcourt..Rondo wins.
His article makes sense but it's not argued correctly in the sense that he is giving reasons as to why the Heat will or won't lose but not acknowledging why the Celtics have given the Heat problems.

[JT11]

KG vs Bosh..KG wins
Celtics vs Lebron...C's win
Celtics vs Wade ...C's win
Rondo vs Heat backcourt..Rondo wins.
His article makes sense but it's not argued correctly in the sense that he is giving reasons as to why the Heat will or won't lose but not acknowledging why the Celtics have given the Heat problems.

I agree, to an extent. However, the Celtics aren't all going to swarm Lebron and Wade. It'll be up to Pierce to contain James, and I'm not sure that matchup comes out in Boston's favor. (Same with Ray and Wade, although I'm a bit more confident that Wade'll get tired chasing Ray through a thousand screens.)

[mc34]

How many times did the Celts beat the Heat this year with JO starting at center and Baby and Krstic as the backups? I think the answer is zero. Granted, this is a different JO than we have seen, but in the only game he started against the Heat, the Celtics were croaked.

This is a decent point.  However, I think the biggest change between the first three games the Celtics played against the Heat and the last was Rondo's play.  The drop off from pre-trade Rondo to post-trade Rondo was much larger than the drop off from Perk or Shaq / Semih to JO / Krstic.

Now that Rondo is in playoff mode, performing even better than he did early in the season, I think the Celtics should be very competitive against the Heat.

Exactly. We're actually an above-average offensive team when Rondo is playing well. Not sure if that's literally true by the numbers but there's a huuuuge difference

[jaybahs]

Hollinger has proven over the years to be nothing but a celtics hater ... This guy literally lets his dislike of the Celtics organization/team cloud his writing every time. I don't care what anybody on this blog says ... If we were playing the Toronto Raptors in the second round ... This guy would probably waste his life away trying to find some "statistical evidence" of why and how we were going to lose the series. It wouldn't matter if this team won 70+ ... This guy would write some baloney about rondo's jumpshot and how it would be the reason the team was ousted ... Hollinger is a BUM.

[kozlodoev]

Hollinger has proven over the years to be nothing but a celtics hater ... This guy literally lets his dislike of the Celtics organization/team cloud his writing every time. I don't care what anybody on this blog says ... If we were playing the Toronto Raptors in the second round ... This guy would probably waste his life away trying to find some "statistical evidence" of why and how we were going to lose the series. It wouldn't matter if this team won 70+ ... This guy would write some baloney about rondo's jumpshot and how it would be the reason the team was ousted ... Hollinger is a BUM.

Actually, you've got it all wrong. Celtics fans have proven over the years to be nothing but Hollinger haters. Those guys literally let their dislike for Hollinger cloud their writing every time. If he was predicting a Celtics win, then those guys would probably waste their life away trying to develop a "convincing" argument that he's trying to jinx them. It wouldn't matter if he predicted the Celtics to win the NBA championship... those guys will probably write some bologna about his statistical method and how he doesn't watch any games. Celtics fans are TROLLS.

[guava_wrench]

It was a good article. We shouldn't make too much out of any one opinion. We can't know how things will play out until they do, but there are many good arguments that can be given for the Heat having an advantage. There are likewise many good arguments in the opposite direction.

[LancerQ]

I'm picking the Heat anyway, as you've no doubt seen from our series page, and I'm picking them in five games because the home-court-advantage team often closes things out that quickly even in series that are relatively even. (Witness Bulls-Pacers and Thunder-Nuggets in Round 1, for instance.)

on what planet were the bulls-pacers and thunder-nuggets relatively even?

thunder-nuggets series was even, nuggets were a team but they just didn't have a go-to guy.

[Thruthelookingglass]

Hollinger claims the Heat were the most anticpated team since the 95-96 Bulls.  um I think the 07-08 Celtics would have something to say about that.  

I don't think the 07-08 Celtics were as anticipated.  I recall there being concern that it would take a year for the players to develop chemistry and that these older players might start to show some decline by the time that happened.  That KG, PP, and RA meshed so easily was one reason why the Heat were anticipated.  Plus, the Celtics vets were just not seen on the same level as Wade and James, who are generally viewed as top 5 superstars.

Not as hyped anyway.  Our 07-08 team didn't have near the amount of self promotion adding to the media carnage.  Do you see commercials with Ray on a motorcycle "delivering" a championship?  Can you imagine a KG version of "The Decision?"  Where is the icon for "barf?"

Come to think of it, giving KG free reign for 45 minutes or so of national airtime might be kinda fun . . .

[JBcat]

Hollinger claims the Heat were the most anticpated team since the 95-96 Bulls.  um I think the 07-08 Celtics would have something to say about that. 

I don't think the 07-08 Celtics were as anticipated.  I recall there being concern that it would take a year for the players to develop chemistry and that these older players might start to show some decline by the time that happened.  That KG, PP, and RA meshed so easily was one reason why the Heat were anticipated.  Plus, the Celtics vets were just not seen on the same level as Wade and James, who are generally viewed as top 5 superstars.

Not as hyped anyway.  Our 07-08 team didn't have near the amount of self promotion adding to the media carnage.  Do you see commercials with Ray on a motorcycle "delivering" a championship?  Can you imagine a KG version of "The Decision?"  Where is the icon for "barf?"

Come to think of it, giving KG free reign for 45 minutes or so of national airtime might be kinda fun . . .

Good points.   At least our big 3 did a few commercials together their first year and not individually like the Heat stars. 

[Brendan]

Balanced article. It comes down to three things:

A. The value of Home Court - if the HC situation was reversed, Hollinger would probably be picking Celts in 5

B. How you weight a couple factors: 1. overall play in regular season, 2. head to head play, 3. recent play, and 4. ability to step up in post season. Hollinger puts very little stock in 2 & 3 because historically they haven't been good indicators of success. In short he doesn't put much stock in anecdotal evidence that a team is an outlier from these historical trends.

C. Shaq's health. Basically KG, PP, RA, RR + anybody at center is a great lineup. But Shaq + 3 of the above + anybody else is also a great lineup. It just makes the C's that much deeper and harder to contend with.

All that being said Hollinger expects Heat in 5 as the most likely of any individual outcome, and sounds like he believes that would happen in a majority or at least large plurality of times. That doesn't mean he thinks its the only possible or even probable outcome.