First Round
I think the top three teams in the East all win their first round series convincingly in four or five games. The only competitive first round series will be Atlanta vs Orlando. I am expecting each of those games to be low scoring tight affairs that come down to the final moments. A very close series that could go either way.
I am going to go with Atlanta to steal the series but I think Orlando is the better team. If Orlando make one defensive switch (Hedo onto J.Collins instead of J.Smith with Bass sticking on Smith and Dwight staying on Horford), I think they take the series.
In the West, the top two seeds beat their injured opponents (NOH without D.West and MEM with R.Gay) fairly comfortably. Probably in five games. Lakers should sweep if Bynum is healthy for the whole series.
The other two series will be more competitive. I like Oklahoma over Denver although I am a bit concerned about that series ... and in the only upset in the first round, I like Portland over Dallas. I just don't think Dallas have the size to defend Portland's big guards / wings and I think that disadvantage will cost them the series.
Second Round
I think Chicago beat Orlando soundly in five or six games.
I am unsure which way the Boston vs Miami series goes though. If Boston is healthy and playing well, I think they are the favourites but those are two big "ifs" right now. I'll wait and see how the Celtics play in the first round before deciding on that one.
In the West, I think the Lakers have a tough series against Portland but hold them off and never really look losing in a six or seven game series. Portland's small ball lineups and scrappiness causing discomfort for LA.
In the other series, wow, Oklahama vs San Antonio, that will be a great matchup. Undecided. Need to think about that one some more.